Central Florida:
Central Florida phosphate players reported softer pricing for the week, with both DAP and MAP trucks falling to $640/st FOB, down $10/st from $650/st FOB noted one week earlier.
North Florida MAP trucks were priced at $650/st FOB, unchanged from the prior report. Sources described steady sales volumes through the week.
US Gulf:
Sources described a muted week on the NOLA phosphate barge market, with some players reportedly taking a wait-and-see approach one week after barges recorded a dramatic decline in values.
Most called DAP barges unmoved from the week-ago $590/st FOB floor, while sources reported price ideas in a wide $595-$610/st FOB at the top of the range, on par with week-ago levels. A rumored $585/st FOB transaction went unconfirmed on Feb. 16.
NOLA MAP barges were similarly flat, with most calling pricing at a $550-$555/st FOB low, unchanged from the previous week floor, while continuing to put the weekly top at $565/st FOB.
Domestic phosphate producers were noted reevaluating offer levels for both DAP and MAP during the week, seeking to take into account both the market’s recent volatility and the outlook for spring.
Some players attributed the market’s recent price weakness to indexing efforts by importers ahead of the spring season, while others ascribed the softness to low seasonal demand. Values were generally anticipated to stabilize as the market creeps closer to spring. “I would expect prices to rebound somewhat with a demand kick, and once these pricing windows have abated,” one trader said.
The NOLA DAP barge market was reported in a $590-$610/st FOB range, unmoved from the prior report. MAP barges were called $550-$565/st FOB, rolling over from week-ago levels.
US Exports:
Players reported no new spot business out of the US Gulf during the week, leaving pricing at $650/st FOB. New offer levels continued to be quoted at $650/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP slipped to $660-$680/st FOB and MAP to $650-$670/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $660-$670/st FOB for DAP and $650-$660/st FOB for MAP in mid-February.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP was pegged at $660-$680/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market reported at the low end of the range. MAP remained in a broad range at $625-$660/st FOB in the region, with the low again confirmed at St. Louis.
Northern Plains:
DAP was quoted at $690-$700/st FOB St. Paul, down from the prior $705/st level. MAP dropped to $650-$670/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with the high at St. Paul and the low reported on a spot basis in North Dakota for brown tons. Delivered green MAP slipped to $730/st in North Dakota, down from the prior $765/st DEL level.
Northeast:
Phosphate pricing at East Liverpool dropped to $690/st FOB for DAP and $670/st FOB for MAP, down $25-$30/st from last report. Delivered MAP in southern Pennsylvania was pegged at the $725-$730/st level, down from the prior $750/st DEL level.
Eastern Canada:
MAP prices in Eastern Canada slipped to a broad C$1,080-$1,280/mt FOB for recent offers, down another C$20/mt at the low end of the range. DAP pricing at Montreal remained at the C$1,090/mt FOB level, unchanged from last report.
China:
Sources said that spring demand for DAP is pushing up the domestic price to $640-$650/mt FOB. This level is too high for the global DAP market. In response, the export price was pegged at $610-$620/mt FOB.
India:
Sources reported DAP offers at $680/mt CFR, which would fit with the reported domestic price in China. Deals with other suppliers are coming in much lower, however. Ma’aden reportedly settled a deal at $665/mt CFR, and JPMC sold a cargo at $655/mt CFR.
A tender for 50,000 mt of DAP was called by RCF to close Feb. 27. Sources said the tender is most likely a price exploration venture as buyers look for public indicators of prices. Many of the recent deals into India have concluded directly between buyers and Chinese producers. These deals are less transparent than any of the tenders, leaving both sides of the negotiating table without firm figures to negotiate deals.
Phosphate producers have been lobbying the national government to raise the minimum retail sale price (MRSP). The producers said they did not raise prices during 2022 – at the order of the government – even as input prices rose. They are now saying the cost of producing DAP is still more expensive than what they are allowed to charge and are in danger of losing money, even with the subsidies provided by the government.
The Indian government is beginning to promote Nano DAP as a replacement for traditional DAP. Nano DAP is similar to Nano Urea, in that it relies more on absorption through the leaves of the plant rather than via the root system.
Pakistan:
Sources said buyers have begun making inquiries to Arab and Chinese DAP producers, looking for product for the second quarter. So far, the sides were only reported in the talking stage.
Brazil:
The price gap for MAP widened at the lower end, dropping the range to $650-$660/mt CFR. Sellers are clinging to the higher end of the range, with deals being concluded at the lower end.
The Rondonopolis price was reported down at $785-$810/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The drop was put to reports that most local buyers already have all the MAP they need.
The paper market for Brazil MAP sales was reported at $580-$640/mt CFR for March, and at $600-$660/mt CFR for April.