Central Florida:
Central Florida DAP truck prices were unchanged at $540/st FOB. Offers for truck-loaded MAP were steady at $615/st FOB.
US Gulf:
Sources reported thin phosphate trading at NOLA during the week, citing concerns about low river levels and a possible early river closure. Due to the limited action, the DAP range was unchanged at $525-$545/st FOB. MAP lifted $5/mt at the top of the range, to $615-$650/st FOB from the week-ago $615-$645/st FOB.
US Exports:
Nothing new was reported on the DAP and MAP export markets, leaving prices at $570/mt FOB for the most recent business.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP was reported at $580-$600/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati. MAP was quoted in a broad range at $680-$710/st FOB in the region, depending on location, with Cincinnati pricing pegged in the $680-$700/st FOB range for the week.
DAP remained at $580-$590/st FOB in Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis. MAP pricing jumped to a broad $680-$720/st FOB in the region, with the Iowa warehouse market reported in the $700-$720/st FOB range in late September.
California:
MAP pricing firmed slightly to $750/st FOB or DEL in California, up $10/st from last report.
Pacific Northwest:
MAP remained at $730-$740/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest, with the low confirmed in Idaho.
Western Canada:
MAP pricing in Western Canada was quoted at C$1,035-$1,050/mt FOB or DEL, up slightly from the previous C$1,000-$1,050/mt range.
China:
The week started with a DAP price in the low-$570s/mt FOB, based on a sale last week into the Philippines. The price remained firmly locked in that range following reports of a new sale into Pakistan at $600/mt CFR, for a netback to China of $570-$575/mt FOB.
The export sale price pushes against the much lower numbers seen in the domestic market. Sources said the estimated export price, based on the current ex-plant price, should be closer to $530/mt FOB. This gap has customs agents looking closely at how many tons of DAP they will allow to be exported in the fourth quarter. There are reports that China may allow 1 million mt of DAP to be shipped through the end of the year.
If the 1 million mt allotment goes through, sources pegged India as the main beneficiary. The large number of extra tons injected into the market could help lower prices to India, and possibly Pakistan.
India:
No new spot DAP deals were done, leaving the price at $595/mt CFR. Until word comes from China that 1 million mt might be available for export in the fourth quarter, sources tagged $600/mt CFR as the likely price.
In anticipation of the Chinese government allowing the 1 million mt to ship, Indian buyers are already getting their bids ready at $500-$510/mt CFR. While the presence of the extra Chinese tons is expected to lower the market price, few think the drop will be as dramatic as buyers hope.
There are rumors circulating that India’s central government is reviewing the subsidy program for phosphates and potash. The change could involve a reduction of subsidy support by as much as 30%. Should such a drop be approved, demand for DAP could fall, sources said. If the policy is implemented at the same time the extra Chinese tons come available for import, however, one source said the $500/mt CFR goal might be achieved.
January-July DAP imports firmed 41% year-over-year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 4 million mt from 2.6 million received during the same period of 2022. China supplied 41% of the market, sending 1.1 million mt. July imports were pegged at 889,000 mt, up significantly from 386,000 mt in July 2022.
Bangladesh:
Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corp. (BADC) closed a tender for 40,000 mt of DAP to be received in two lots of 20,000 mt each. Rumors put the landed price at $600/mt CFR. Sources noted that Bangladesh usually pays a higher price than India and Pakistan because of its port facilities.
Brazil:
The landed price of MAP at Brazil increased to $550/mt CFR from the week-ago $530-$540/mt CFR, with players citing limited October availability.
Due to thin supply for the tail end of the 2023/24 soybean application season, available offers in Rondonopolis followed import prices higher. While some players were noted holding prices stable, others increased offers by $10/mt, lifting the market to $650-$670/mt FOB ex-warehouse.