Central Florida:
Central Florida DAP trucks were reported transacting at $630/st FOB, unchanged from last week, while MAP was steady at $655/st FOB. Sources continued to put North Florida MAP truck postings at $650/st FOB.
US Gulf:
NOLA DAP barges rallied 3.3% during the week, to $580-$610/st FOB from the week-ago $570-$582.50/st FOB. The range’s low side was set by trades concluding early in the week, players said, while prompt shipments and local product dominated the top end.
Trading for MAP barges was reported at $605-$625/st FOB, up $5-$10/st from last week’s $600-$615/st FOB, with prompt and local product garnering a premium.
US Exports:
With no new spot transactions reported, the US Gulf DAP and MAP export market continued at $570/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP prices moved up to $650-$670/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the prior $635-$655/st FOB range, with MAP quoted at $675-$695/st FOB. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $660-$670/st FOB for DAP and $675-$685/st FOB for MAP. Pricing in the Great Lakes region included MAP at $720-$730/st FOB Michigan warehouses for prompt tons.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP was up $5/st from last week, to $640-$655/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP quoted at $670-$690/st FOB in the region. The higher end of both ranges was reported in Iowa, while the St. Louis market reportedly firmed to $640-$645/st FOB for DAP and $670-$680/st FOB for MAP.
Southern Plains:
DAP was reported at $650-$670/st FOB in the Southern Plains, up from the prior $640-$660/st FOB range, with the high reported at Houston. The Catoosa/Inola DAP market was pegged firmly in the $650-$660/st FOB range during the week. MAP remained at $680-$690/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, with the higher end of the range also reported at Houston.
South Central:
DAP prices were quoted at $640-$660/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low confirmed at Memphis and the high in Arkansas and Kentucky.
Southeast:
Nutrien’s MAP postings at Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla., were unchanged at $650/st FOB in late February.
Morocco:
Moroccan netbacks from DAP sales into Europe and India remained unchanged, with more than 50,000 mt reportedly committed by OCP through March. Similarly, Tunisian producer GCT is understood to have achieved as high as $610/mt FOB on a 10,000 mt lot into Europe. With no updates on netbacks from India, the low end of the range remained at $550/mt FOB.
Benelux:
Sales of Russian material into Northwest Europe at €610/mt FCA brought the high end of the Benelux DAP range to $650/mt FCA, while business in Belgium and France at €605/mt FCA reflected the low end for the week. Reports of lower offers for Moroccan product at sub-€600/mt FCA could not be confirmed against an inquiry of 5,000 mt for prompt ship.
With snug supply and demand for spring application still ahead, market sources expected DAP prices to continue to edge higher, assuming farmers are not swayed by wet weather conditions or continued protests.
Baltic:
Baltic MAP values continue to reflect netbacks from Brazil and other Latin American markets, with prices reported in the $490-$505/mt FOB range. A 30,000 mt cargo of Russian MAP will load in March for shipment to Argentina and Uruguay.
China:
A statement issued at the beginning of the week by the China Phosphate Fertilizer Association indicated that phosphate products would be made available for export in March. Industry watchers cautioned that nothing has been confirmed by the government, however. An official statement is expected next week following a meeting between China’s primary phosphate producers and the government.
The meeting is expected to indicate that the clearance process for DAP and MAP can begin on March 1. In addition, sources said the meeting may also set quotas for export. Rumors indicate the government will allow 1 million mt of phosphates to be exported this year, though the amount will be adjusted depending on domestic prices and needs.
According to Trade Data Monitor, China exported 4.4 million mt of DAP and 1.5 million mt of MAP in April-December 2023.
The relatively small export allotment under discussion could prevent the sale of large cargoes. So far, sources estimate that one 25,000 mt export cargo – covering an award in the latest Nepal tender – might receive approval in March. Additional March sales are expected to total less than 10,000 mt and be mostly limited to containers.
A reported 100,000 mt of phosphates, primarily consisting of DAP, are currently awaiting export inspection and approval at the ports. If the announced March 1 date is confirmed, sources said the inspectors can get to work to process the product for export, and many of the tons reportedly have potential buyers already lined up. The paperwork to clear the product will require up to two weeks to complete.
One trader raised the question of the status of the DAP and MAP sitting in the warehouses for export. Much of the material was slated for shipment before the restrictions were put in place, leaving the holders to declare force majeure after the exports were blocked. Now, with the restrictions soon to be lifted, some are asking whether the material must go to those who initially purchased the product or if the tonnage is able to be sold on the open market.
Due to the market’s lack of export deals, traders have relied on a number of methods to calculate the price of DAP from China.
By working back from India, sources put the China-equivalent netback around $580/mt FOB. Others looked to the ex-plant price, currently sitting at $530-$560/mt, to reach an estimated export price of $575-$580/mt FOB. Finally, sources also considered the recent tender award issued from Nepal to Sun International. In that case, the estimates were put at $570-$575/mt FOB, leaving a $570-$580/mt FOB range for exports out of China.
India:
Earlier purchases from Morocco and Saudi Arabia reported at $595/mt CFR remain the benchmark for prices in India.
Buyers in India were reportedly excited to hear that China might resume DAP exports on March 1. However, the tonnage expected to be made available is unlikely to include volumes large enough to be useful to Indian buyers. Most of the initial DAP exports are projected to be released in small lots, sources said, with the largest totaling no more than 25,000 mt.
Brazil:
Landed MAP prices firmed during the week, to $560/mt CFR from the prior $550-$560/mt CFR. Citing a short market, sellers are attempting to push prices to $580/mt CFR, though material of Russian origin continues to transact at lower levels.
While product of reported Russian origin continued to be priced at $665-$680/mt FOB ex-warehouse at Rondonópolis, other suppliers were successful in lifting the market to $700/mt FOB.
With exchange rates reaching historic levels due to falling grain prices in the physical market, buyers have been unable to plan MAP purchases for the 2024/25 soybean season. The weak commodities prices may push farmers toward fertilizer products carrying a lower phosphate content, such as SSP.