Central Florida:
Despite the fire at Mosaic’s Riverview phosphate production facility, DAP truck postings remained at $630/st FOB during the week, unchanged from the prior report. MAP trucks were steady at $655/st FOB, while North Florida MAP postings continued at $650/st FOB.
US Gulf:
Prompt and loaded barges continued to trade at a premium during the week, though both DAP and MAP lost value from the top of their respective ranges. DAP barges settled at $570-$620/st FOB, off $10/st FOB from the week-ago high, while MAP softened to $620-$635/st FOB, dropping $5/st from last week’s $640/st FOB top end.
US Exports:
Nothing new was reported on the US Gulf market, leaving DAP and MAP export prices steady at $570/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP prices tightened to $675-$685/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with both the high and low confirmed at Cincinnati during the week. Most Illinois River terminals were quoted firmly at the $680-$685/st FOB level for April tons. MAP was pegged at $685-$695/st FOB for limited tons in the region, with the low again reported on the Illinois River. The Cincinnati MAP market remained at $690-$695/st FOB during the week.
In the Great Lakes region, delivered DAP and MAP were quoted at the $735/st level during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP was pegged at $670-$715/st FOB for limited tons in the Western Cornbelt, with the MAP market quoted at $675-$715/st FOB in the region. St. Louis offers were reported at $680-$715/st FOB for DAP, with the high for very limited prompt tons and the low for April shipment. MAP at St. Louis was reported at $675-$715/st FOB, with the low for April tons.
Northern Plains:
DAP was pegged in a broad range at $680-$715/st FOB St. Paul in late March, depending on time of shipment, with MAP reported at $715-$725/st FOB at that location.
Northeast:
The DAP and MAP markets in the Northeast remained at $695-$725/st FOB and $705-$725/st FOB, respectively, with rail-DEL pricing pegged at $715-$725/st for DAP and $730/st for MAP.
Eastern Canada:
The latest MAP offers in Eastern Canada were reported at C$985-$995/mt FOB, down C$8/mt at the low end of the range, while DAP pricing slipped to C$945/mt FOB Montreal, reflecting a decline of C$10/mt from last report.
Morocco:
Moroccan DAP prices were lower this week, fueled by lower Indian prices netting back to around $530/mt FOB Morocco following the opening up of Chinese exports. A small parcel committed to Europe was said to reflect $610/mt FOB Morocco, which constitutes the high end of this week’s range.
Benelux:
DAP prices in Benelux remained firm this week as availability in the region is snug. Despite offers inching nominally higher in euro terms, the dollar appreciation resulted in an unchanged assessment of $660-$675/mt FCA.
Baltic:
Russian DAP prices moved lower to around $525/mt FOB, reflecting the latest Indian netbacks. Lithuanian DAP, which continues to reflect values from Benelux, remained stable at $620/mt FOB. No further price movement was reported for MAP in the Baltic due to flatness in Brazilian CFR values, with netbacks quoted at $500-$510/mt FOB.
China:
DAP and MAP export paperwork can now be filed for tons shipping in April, sources said. Currently, the process is said to require about two weeks from filing to approval, assuming that no issues arise.
Inspectors are looking to ensure that exports will not affect domestic supply, but also that the producer has received the appropriate allocation to permit the export. No reports have yet surfaced on how the export quotas are being allocated to individual producers. One source noted that inspectors will be looking at local stockpiles and the estimated output of the plant to safeguard supply for the local market.
Earlier this month, the government indicated the export quota for DAP will total around 5 million mt for tons shipping from March 15, 2024, through April 30, 2025. The MAP export quota was indicated around 2 million mt. Individual plants will receive specific export allotments based on these quotas.
Sources looked to a $575/mt CFR sale reported into India to estimate a China-equivalent netback of $550-$555/mt FOB. In talks with traders, producers have reportedly named $570-$575/mt FOB as the minimum expected price once exports begin next month.
However, the Indian deal offers a solid window into current prices, one trader noted, even if the product in that deal does not come from China. Morocco and other Arab producers were unlikely to have agreed to a deal at this price, the trader added, leaving China as the most likely source.
India:
Sources reported a DAP purchase at $575/mt CFR. While the origins of the material were unclear, several sources speculated the tons would likely ship from China when exports resume next month.
Some made an argument for Russia as the source of the material, but quickly countered their own point by noting the netback on the deal would be too low for suppliers. However, the Russian government could have leaned on a supplier to provide India with product in an effort to enhance governmental relations, one trader noted.
This deal is the second time the Indian DAP price has moved lower in recent weeks. Sources said Indian buyers have been pushing hard for the reductions.
Reportedly, the country is desperately short of DAP. While the product is not needed until June, India’s state-owned and private buyers have been aggressively seeking material to be shipped in April and early May to ensure full warehouses for the start of the upcoming application season.
The government is particularly concerned with having ample phosphate supplies on hand, as voting in the national elections begins in April. Sources said the government wants to show local distributors and farmers it is ensuring that enough reasonably priced fertilizer is available.
For now, even the $575/mt CFR price is higher than what can be recovered under the current Nutrient Based Subsidy plan, where sources have put the breakeven point in the $495-$515/mt CFR range. Indian buyers have argued since the fourth quarter that prices had to come down in order to meet this level. Infrequent purchases have been made at higher prices, but only when needed.
This has resulted in DAP reserves totaling approximately 1.5 million mt in the country. Sources said this is not enough to properly start the application season, and lackluster imports are not helping the situation. Trade Data Monitor reported January DAP imports of 44,000 mt, all from Saudi Arabia,a significant decline from the 564,000 mt received in January 2023.
The lack of Chinese DAP in the trade numbers illustrated the effectiveness of Beijing’s export restrictions. The market’s persistent high prices also contributed to the low import total.
Brazil:
Brazil MAP continued at the week-ago $565-$570/mt CFR level, while inland offers were noted at a $580/mt CFR equivalent.
Rondonópolis prices were stable at $680-$700/mt FOB ex-warehouse, with sources reporting few sales concluding during the week. Barter ratios remain unfavorable for rural producers, who prefer to wait for lower prices before committing to new business.
Argentina:
Trade Data Monitor put January-February MAP imports at 32,000 mt, up from the 12,000 mt received during the first two months of 2023. Argentina was able to land some of China’s last available MAP exports, snagging 24,000 mt, accounting for 75% of the period’s imports.
February imports were noted at 18,000 mt, more than doubling Argentina’s 7,000 mt intake during February 2023.