Central Florida:
Central Florida phosphate prices were noted at $580/st FOB for DAP and $600/st FOB for MAP, both unchanged from the prior report. North Florida MAP postings softened to $630/st FOB, however, down from the prior $650/st FOB level.
US Gulf:
NOLA DAP barges fell to $505-$535/st FOB in limited trading, players said, down from $525-$540/st FOB at last report. MAP barges recovered from the week-ago $480-$485/st FOB low, however, lifting to $520-$530/st FOB.
US Imports:
March DAP imports stood at 290,840 st, off 3.3% from the 300,800 st reported last March. July-March volumes were noted at 1.43 million st, however, a 91.2% rise from the year-ago 745,394 st. July-March imports from Saudi Arabia were counted at 868,727 st, up 96.4% from the year-ago 442,230 st, followed by 294,902 st from Jordan. Egypt shipped 126,765 st.
March MAP/Other imports totaled 52,804 st, a 55.0% increase from 34,065 st in March 2023. July-March imports were 777,013 st, up 10.3% from the year-ago 704,480 st. Saudi Arabia led sellers with 211,605 st in the fertilizer year-to-date, narrowly topping 191,914 st from Mexico, while Tunisia sent 175,693 st.
US Exports:
No new export DAP or MAP business was reported out of the US Gulf, leaving the market unchanged at $570/mt FOB.
DAP exports softened 39.0% in July-March, to 361,476 st from the year-ago 592,948 st. March exports stood at 34,567 st, dropping 47.5% from the 65,876 st reported one year earlier. US DAP sellers sent 95,398 st to Peru in July-March, ahead of 64,932 st to Uruguay and 49,209 st to Brazil. Canada took 41,936 st.
MAP/Other exports softened 14.1% in March, to 204,796 st from the year-go 238,353 st. July-March exports were 1.54 million st, down 4.1% from the year-ago 1.60 million st. Canada received 1.22 million st of MAP from the US in July-March, ahead of 111,136 st to Australia and 44,189 st to Brazil. Mexico bought 42,059 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP prices remained under pressure, with Illinois River terminal offers dropping to $620/st FOB on a spot basis, down from last week’s $630/st FOB low. The Cincinnati DAP market was pegged at the $665/st FOB level during the week. In the Great Lakes region, delivered DAP was reported at the $668/st level in early May.
MAP was quoted at $665-$695/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with both the high and low reported at Cincinnati during the week. In the Great Lakes region, delivered MAP offers were pegged at the $708/st level for May tons.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP slipped to $640-$665/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP pegged at $675-$695/st FOB in the region. The St. Louis market was quoted at $640-$650/st FOB for DAP and $675-$680/st FOB for MAP.
Northern Plains:
DAP was pegged at $660-$675/st FOB St. Paul, with MAP slipping to $670-$695/st FOB at the Cities. The lower end of both ranges was attributed to pressure from rail-DEL offers coming from the western US.
Northeast:
DAP remained at $695/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio. MAP was pegged in a broad range at $660-$700/st FOB in the region, depending on location, with the low out of spot port terminals and high at East Liverpool. Rail-DEL MAP offers in Pennsylvania were also quoted at the $695/st level in early May.
Eastern Canada:
MAP pricing in Eastern Canada was unchanged at C$985-$995/mt FOB, with DAP remaining at C$945/mt FOB Montreal.
Benelux:
The Northwest European DAP market remained in a lull, with new business described as scarce and indications drifting lower to $635-$645/mt FCA (€590-€600/mt FCA).
Morocco:
DAP prices ex-Morocco were stable this week, reflecting Indian netbacks on the low end and European business at the high. Other sales to Latin America reflected the approximate midpoint of the range in the mid-$550s/mt FOB.
Sources speculated that lower offers to Europe were circulating, but these levels could not be confirmed by press time, resulting in a flat price range of $495-$600/mt FOB.
Baltic:
MAP prices in the Baltic moved up $5/mt on the high end following a spot sale to a Latin American destination other than Brazil. The low end continued to reflect Brazilian netbacks, which are steady as Baltic producers hold CFR prices in Brazil, buoyed by reports of low stocks in the country.
China:
Some cargoes of DAP are reportedly being prepped for shipment from China. Initial hopes that shipments would have departed by now were dashed because of delays built into the export permission process designed to ensure that a plentiful supply of phosphates are on hand, especially while the application season remains in full swing. Domestic demand for DAP will be negligible by the end of the month, traders said, allowing for more exports.
Pricing ideas have been all over the map. The best guess for now is $500-$510/mt FOB, traders said, fitting with the latest prices reportedly under discussion for India and Pakistan.
Even though traders are convinced that no deals were done this week – or seriously discussed –for less than $500/mt FOB, they were equally convinced that prices will slip into the $490s/mt FOB before the end of the month.
Much of the pressure to lower prices is coming from India and the willingness of other DAP producing countries to meet the Indian bids. OCP is reportedly anxious to find buyers, even as the Moroccan producer also appears to be shifting attention toward TSP and SSP production and away from DAP. At the same time, Russian suppliers are equally anxious to sell their product at nearly any level that will get a deal done.
India:
The most common price being tossed about for deals this week fell in the low-$520s/mt FOB, a significant drop from the $548/mt CFR that resulted from India’s last public DAP tender in April. One buyer has reportedly bid at $479/mt CFR, but with no takers. So far, the most ambitious plays seem to be landing closer to $500/mt CFR.
Bids are reportedly being tossed around at $505-$510/mt CFR. While no deals have yet been done at that level, there are expectations that these prices might be achieved in the next week or so, traders said.
Logistics may be touch-and-go as the monsoon season starts up. The rough summer weather could severely delay loading and unloading, sources said.
Pakistan:
Reports are circulating that TCP is in the final stages of closing a purchase of DAP and ammonium sulfate. The DAP has a reported price of $532/mt CFR, netting back an estimated $506-$510/mt FOB to China.
Brazil:
The Brazil MAP range slipped to $550-$570/mt CFR from $570-$575/mt CFR at last report, with sources citing multiple offers of Chinese material in the decline. MAP 10-50 was reported in the $520-$525/mt CFR range, while players noted NP 11-44 at $455-$465/mt CFR.
Rondonópolis MAP pricing lost $5/mt from the top of the week-ago range, settling at $690-$705/mt FOB. While most market players described an inactive market, some reported a start to negotiations for the 2024/25 soybean season, though buyers remain hopeful that the barter ratio will improve.
January-April MAP imports in Brazil fell 36% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 1.03 million mt from 1.6 million mt. Russia sent 780,000 mt, and Morocco added 158,000 mt. April imports were put at 378,000 mt, off 18% from 459,000 mt in April 2023.