Central Florida:
The Central Florida DAP market declined $20/st at the high side of the range to settle at a flat $560/st FOB. MAP trucks held their value at $600/st FOB. North Florida MAP postings were stable at $630/st FOB.
US Gulf:
With NOLA players reportedly feeling more comfortable with vessel arrivals and near-term supply, NOLA phosphates were noted trading at lower volumes. Despite the slower week, DAP and MAP barges moved higher, notching price gains of 2.2% and 2.5%, respectively.
DAP traded multiple times between $540-$546/st FOB, players said, rising from last week’s $528-$535/st FOB range. MAP barges continued to show strength in the tight market, lifting to $600-$620/st FOB from $590-$600/st FOB at last report.
US Exports:
With no new spot business reported, the US Gulf DAP and MAP markets continued at $550/mt FOB and $570/mt FOB, respectively.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP remained at $600-$640/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals for June-July offers. MAP prices reportedly ticked up to $660-$680/st FOB in the region, depending on location. The latest Cincinnati offers were pegged at $630-$640/st FOB for DAP and $660-$670/st FOB for MAP.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP was quoted at $630-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP pegged in the $660-$680/st FOB range in the region. Pricing at St. Louis remained at $640-$650/st FOB for DAP and $665-$675/st FOB for MAP during the week.
California:
MAP was unchanged at $790/st FOB or DEL for the latest offers in California.
Pacific Northwest:
Prompt MAP offers remained $770-$780/mt DEL in the Pacific Northwest, though July fill offers were reportedly circulating in the $710-$740/st DEL range in the region.
Western Canada:
MAP fill for July-August was quoted at the C$1,030-$1,040/mt DEL level in Western Canada, down roughly C$100/mt from spring pricing.
Benelux:
DAP prices in Benelux ticked higher during the week, with offers heard at €600/mt FCA buoyed by limited product availability, mainly of Moroccan origin, as Russian producers opt to serve a robust domestic market.
Some respite may come with the resumption of production at EuroChem’s Lithuanian plant Lifosa, which is slated for June 17, according to Russian media. At midweek exchange rates, the current price level of €590-€600/mt FCA translates to $634-$644/mt FCA due to a depreciating euro following the recent European elections.
Morocco:
Moroccan DAP prices were stable this week, with hefty volumes sold in the existing range of $495-$585/mt FOB for Europe and Latin America. Higher netbacks were achieved on select European sales but for very small volumes, and fell outside the scope of this week’s price range.
Baltic:
MAP prices in the Baltic moved up $10/mt on the high end, to $530-$550/mt FOB, reflecting higher Brazilian CFR levels. A sale into Latin America was reported to yield some higher netbacks of above $560/mt FOB but could not be confirmed by press time.
China:
Phosphate producers were summoned by the National Development and Reform Commission to discuss prices and inventories, sources said.
The producers were reportedly told that if they did not control their prices and exports, they could find themselves in the same situation currently affecting the country’s urea producers. One trader noted that immediately after the CIQ export process was halted for urea, players pulled away from DAP and MAP export discussions. The fear of an export ban led traders to wait for clarity on the status of phosphate exports.
The price of DAP has not moved as rapidly as urea, giving producers and international traders a bit more breathing room than that of their urea counterparts. The demand for phosphates did not rebound as firmly as did urea demand, leaving little activity in the domestic market.
The price firmed into the low-$520s/mt FOB during the week, however, with sources providing conflicting signals about whether deals were actually done at that level. What was clear to all traders, however, is that this is the price level where all discussions are taking place. Some of the higher offers into Indian tenders reflect netbacks at a similar level, one trader noted.
Prices are expected to see more upward pressure in the next few weeks. Bangladesh will soon begin talks for its major DAP purchases, sources said. At the same time, Pakistan has been sending out feelers to acquire more DAP. Those moves come as India also needs to step up its DAP buying as demand for product will soon begin to ramp up.
India:
Calls for DAP purchases from a variety of buyers have shown a wide range of prices. Sources reported recent offers from $520/mt CFR – up slightly from last week – to the $540s/mt CFR, with netbacks from the top of the range reflecting current price ideas out of China.
For now, sources said the market’s previous price of $518/mt CFR is long gone. They added that if any Indian buyers accept a low-$520s/mt CFR offer, the seller will have a hard time finding product on the open market at that level, with the possible exception of a Russian supplier.
The rising price of DAP in India is now once again surpassing the subsidy levels. Private-sector importers will be forced to back out of the market, sources said, because any sale would be a money-loser. That leaves state-owned entities to handle the imports. One trader noted that these buyers do not have to depend on the subsidy to provide DAP at the allowed price because they can receive state funding in ways the private sector cannot.
Brazil:
Brazil MAP strengthened to $600-$605/mt CFR on firm demand and limited supply, rising from the week-ago $575-$595/mt CFR. Buyers continue to focus on securing product for the soybean season, while January-May imports were down 30% from the previous year.
The decrease in imports has also impacted inland prices, with tons reportedly moving to $730-$760/mt FOB Rondonópolis, up $10/mt from the prior week.
Trade Data Monitor reported January-May MAP imports at 1.4 million mt, down 32% from the 2 million mt received through the first five months of 2023. Russia topped the supplier list with 955,000 mt, for about 70% of the total. Morocco followed with 249,000 mt, and Saudi Arabia added 139,000 mt. May imports fell 14% year-over-year, to 340,000 mt from 396,000 mt.