Central Florida:
Central Florida DAP trucks were priced at $310/st FOB, unchanged from one week earlier. Truck-loaded MAP ran $5/st higher than DAP, at $315/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf:
Softening was reported in the nearby NOLA DAP and MAP markets, pushing some imports below $280/st FOB.
Sources described DAP barges changing hands at $279-$285/st FOB early in the week, but sales and offers of a dark-colored import product were tracked down to $275-$277/st FOB on Oct. 9-10. Domestically produced tons accounted for the top of the range, but concluded volumes were limited. DAP offers rumored at $272/st FOB against $266/st FOB bids remained unconfirmed on Oct. 10.
Nearby MAP barges fared somewhat better, slipping to a $279/st FOB floor for import tons, while most sources put the product’s top end even with DAP.
Upriver and moving barges continued to draw a premium compared to NOLA due to the impending seasonal shutdown of the upper Mississippi River. “NOLA seems to be drifting post-river close,” said one source.
Most attribute the most recent price declines to expectations of a fresh round of imports due for NOLA arrival.
The nearby NOLA barge DAP market was quoted in the $275-$285/st FOB range for the week, softening from the prior week’s $282-$290/st FOB. MAP barges moved to $279-$285/st FOB from the previous week’s $283-$288/st FOB range.
U.S. Imports:
DAP imports for August were noted at 125,896 st, falling 7 percent from the year-ago 135,825 st. Morocco was the largest provider to the U.S. with 100,494 st, followed by 24,284 st from Russia.
July-August DAP totals were up 14 percent, to 195,739 st from 171,547 st in the 2018-2019 period.
August MAP/Other imports increased by 42 percent, to 128,626 st from 90,322 st posted one year earlier. Morocco represented nearly all of the month’s imports, sending 126,992 st. July-August imports were up 94 percent, to 309,592 st from the prior year’s 159,837 st.
U.S. Exports:
August DAP exports were clocked at 80,490 st, a 34 percent slide from 121,648 st in August 2018. Peru was the largest buyer of U.S. product with 34,459 st received, followed by 17,068 st to Mexico and 13,336 st to Colombia.
DAP totals were also down for the July-August period at 162,388 st, 20 percent below the previous year’s 203,209 st.
MAP/Other exports firmed to 301,933 st for the month, rising 38 percent from the year-ago 218,493 st. Canada was the top
export destination at 140,928 st, topping 81,790 st to Brazil and 28,277 st to Mexico. The MAP market continued to excel in the July-August window with 515,417 st shipped, a 44 percent year-over-year increase from 356,751 st.
No new business was reported on the Gulf export market. Last done included DAP and MAP cargoes totaling 58,000 mt. The material was reportedly priced in the $303-$308/mt FOB range. As a result, the Gulf export market remained steady at $303-$308/mt FOB for both DAP and MAP.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP and MAP were quoted at $320-$330/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the lower end of the range reported at Cincinnati and out of spot Illinois River terminals.
One Illinois source said fall movement “started in earnest” during the week. “We have a good run going,” he commented on Oct. 11.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP and MAP were quoted at $315-$320/st FOB St. Louis and $320-$325/st FOB Dubuque, Iowa, with the upper end of the regional range reported at $330-$335/st FOB Caruthersville and out of other spot warehouses in the Iowa market.
Southern Plains:
New DAP/MAP offers in the Catoosa/Inola market were reported in the $320-$330/st FOB range at midweek, down from a recent high of $355-$375/st when the Arkansas River was closed to navigation. Pricing FOB Houston remained at the $345/st FOB level at mid-month.
South Central:
DAP pricing had reportedly slipped to $315-$330/st FOB river warehouses in the South Central region, down $5-$10/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Van Buren, Ark., and the high at Little Rock. The Memphis DAP market was pegged at the $325/st FOB level at mid-month.
Southeast:
DAP and MAP postings at Aurora, N.C., were unchanged at $350/st FOB.
China:
Reports of DAP sales last week at $305/mt FOB proved to be more speculation than fact. Sources said the rumors at that level were believable, given the general slide in prices, but ended up being so much vapor.
Even without the price drop, sources said DAP and MAP sales are coming off. Traders put the DAP price at $310/mt FOB, with 11-52 MAP in the same area. One source said nailing down a cargo at sub-$310/mt FOB would not be difficult.
The Chinese producers are being buffeted by buyers with aggressive prices in Brazil, India, and Pakistan. Some Indian and Pakistani buyers have stepped up for more tons because the recent rains have extended the application season. Brazilian buyers are making opportunistic purchases, using aggressive sales tactics by the Russians and Moroccans to hammer lower prices from China.
The Brazilians have an additional advantage in that the country is oversupplied with MAP. They can walk away from a deal at any time and still have enough tons on hand to satisfy the upcoming seasonal demand.
Brazil:
Brazil spot MAP tons were heard lower for the week at $310-$320/mt CFR, falling from $315-$325/mt CFR in the previous report. Bidding was quoted at $305/mt CFR.
Sources reported that there is still a large overhang of MAP in the supply pipeline. Even as farmers and NPK producers are unwilling to buy large quantities, more vessels arrive each week with more tons.
The future for MAP in Brazil, however, looks much better. Sources reported the market for 2020 for MAP is showing signs of dramatic growth. One trader said he is hearing quotes of $360/mt CFR for April deliveries to the ports. Corresponding inland prices are also showing strength into the $420s/mt CFR.
The price difference in moving MAP inland form different ports will impact the delivery ports in the coming year. Sources said the Port of Santos, near Sao Paulo, is expected to begin receiving more MAP from overseas because of its better position to move tons inland. One trader said moving tons through Santos is about $30/mt cheaper than the more southern port of Paranagua.
India:
Buyers are stepping back into the market because the good rains have extended the application season. Sources said a few deals for prompt tons in the upper-$320s/mt CFR have been reported. One trader said if the demand keeps up, the price might move up a dollar or two as availability tightens in the limited time that buyers have.
Pakistan:
Some spot and extra contract tons have reportedly been picked up by Pakistan buyers. Sources said the price for the material was in the low-$330s/mt CFR, which matches the sub-$330/mt CFR price being paid in India.
Saudi Arabia:
DAP produced in Saudi Arabia was heard falling to $320-$330/mt FOB in recent trading, a decline from $325-$330/mt FOB at last report.