New York — In light of a global oversupply situation for nitrogen, potash, and phosphate, Green Markets Senior Analyst Neil Fleishman told Bloomberg Intelligence Webinar – Preparing the Field: Agchems 2015 – that producer discipline is expected for both potash and phosphates. Potash prices have bottomed and are slowly moving back up after the 2013 Belarusian Potash Co. breakup. While the industry is well supplied with new brownfield capacity, producers are not rushing to produce every possible ton. On the phosphate side, while Chinese exports have been a concern, Fleishman says China appears to be at the end of its phosphate expansion plans. He said MENA producers continue to run at reduced capacity to balance the market. Fleishman has a more bearish outlook for nitrogen; he expects capacity to grow rapidly in the next few years, led by urea. He believes the U.S. will soon become self-sufficient in urea and UAN, but will still need to import ammonia. China will continue to be a pivotal urea exporter, with strong exports expected again this year.
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