Fertiglobe Expects 4Q Bounce After 3Q Drop

ADX-listed Fertiglobe, the strategic nitrogen fertilizer joint venture between OCI Global NV and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., reported a 67% drop in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, to $199 million from $606.3 million last year. Revenue fell 60% year-over-year, to $525.1 million from $1.32 billion

Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of Fertiglobe was 86% lower year-over-year, to $41.2 million from $291.5 million, while diluted earnings per share dropped to $0.005 from $0.035.

Own-produced sales volumes for the quarter were up 8% year-over-year, to 1.47 million mt from 1.36 million mt, driven by a 9% jump in urea sales volumes, to 1.14 million mt from 1.04 million mt. The company said its own-produced ammonia sales volumes were relatively unchanged from last year.

Third-party traded volumes slumped 88% year-over-year, to 40,000 mt from 336,000 mt. Total product volumes were down 11% overall in the quarter, to 1.51 million mt from 1.7 million mt last year.

“Despite the traditional summer lull in fertilizer sales, we saw nitrogen prices maintain their positive momentum in the third quarter, driven by tightening markets on planned and unplanned supply disruptions, restocking demand, as well as expectations of reduced exports from China,” said Fertiglobe CEO Ahmed El-Hoshy.

Fertiglobe posted a 64% decline in nine-month adjusted EBITDA, to $714.5 million from $2.0 billion, and a 55% fall in revenue, to $1.77 billion from $3.97 billion. Nine-month adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of the company fell 76%, to $260.5 million from $1.09 billion, while diluted earnings per share dropped to $0.031 from $0.130.

Fertiglobe is targeting a fourth-quarter bounceback, seeing an expected recovery in demand ahead of the spring application season in the Northern Hemisphere “that should continue to support prices going in the final quarter of 2023.”

“Nitrogen prices have increased significantly from their troughs in the second and third quarters, and we expect the benefits from these increases to materialize in the fourth quarter,” El-Hoshy said. He said the short-term outlook is further underpinned by a strong order book for ammonia and urea in the fourth quarter at higher prices for the remainder of the year.

Fertiglobe’s board of directors has approved dividends of $275 million for the first half of 2023, equivalent to 12 fils per share. The company reported its cost optimization program is on track and is expected to realize its targeted $50 million in recurring annualized savings by the end of 2024.

Fertiglobe Sales Volumes

‘000 mt 3Q-2023 3Q-2022 % change 9M-2023 9M-2022 % change
Fertiglobe Own-Product Sold 1,470 1,364 +8 4,247 4,158 +2
Third-Party Traded 40 336 (88) 353 848 (56)
Total Product Volumes 1,510 1,700 (11) 4,600 5,006 (8)