Florida is expected to have the smallest orange crop in 79 years due to Hurricane Ian, according to an Oct. 12 USDA report. In the meantime, damage to Florida fertilizer companies so far has been said to be minor-to-modest.
“Our operations in both Bartow and Lakeland are undergoing minor repairs,” said a Sylvite Florida spokesperson; both were back up soon after Ian (GM Oct. 7, p. 1). “The blenders are doing the same. Unfortunately, the citrus crop has suffered over 50% crop loss in central and southwest Florida. It has made a bad situation much worse.”
As reported last week, The Mosaic Co. reported modest damage to its Florida facilities, but said it may cost the company up to 250,000 mt of product and take 1-2 weeks for repairs (GM Oct. 7, p. 1). The company had not provided an update as of press time.
USDA said Florida is now expected to produce 28 million boxes for the current season, down 32% from the prior year. That is the lowest harvest since 1943.
“The drop is huge” and is likely to accelerate the trend toward more foreign supplies of juice,” said Jack Scoville, Vice President for Price Futures Group in Chicago in a Bloomberg report. “I doubt we will see a big recovery. The money isn’t there for growers.”
Orange juice futures surged as much as 4.9% to $1.997 a pound on ICE Futures US, approaching its highest levels since 2016. The price is up about 55% in the last 12 months. Tight supplies in Brazil, the top orange grower, and higher industry costs have contributed to the rally.
The slide represents the fourth straight decline for the Sunshine State, which has been eclipsed by California as the biggest US orange grower. The slump has been hastened by Ian, which carved a destructive path through orange groves in the latest blow to Florida’s $6.7 billion citrus industry. The storm’s devastation adds uncertainty to the US production outlook and threatens to lift imports and prices as consumers struggle with the worst inflation in four decades.
“Juice prices should go to the moon, but I doubt it will happen, because consumers would probably take pills for vitamin C rather than paying more,” Scoville said.
Florida’s grapefruit production is also forecast to tumble by 40% from a year ago, according to the USDA.
The USDA will probably cut Florida’s orange crop estimate further in the coming months when the severity of Ian’s impact becomes more evident, such as signs of more fruit drop and weakened trees, industry consultant Judy Ganes said.
The state’s citrus acreage has been in a downward trend for almost two decades, largely due to the damaging citrus greening disease that has decimated groves, as well as urban sprawl and hurricane damage.
Weather has been wreaking havoc on the world’s citrus crops, with severe drought in top growers Brazil and California last season helping crimp global supplies. Plunging US production is widely expected to boost imports from other nations, including Mexico, which were already on the rise prior to Ian.