The IPL urea tender confirmed a soft urea market. The average price in the tender for firm offers was $390.73/mt CFR. The lowest offer came in at $379.70/mt CFR from Quantum for Mundra. The average of the three offers from Quantum to various ports is the lowest of offers at $381.20/mt CFR.
All told, traders presented 1.49 million mt as firm offers. Another 860,000 mt were offered as optional tons.
Sources say the Yuzhnyy equivalent netback is $350/mt FOB and $365/mt FOB Arab Gulf equivalent.
The Yuzhnyy price falls into line with reports last week of ever-lowering prices. The $350/mt FOB price, however, is significantly lower than anything traders were talking about. The last completed business was in the low-$360s/mt FOB. Following that deal, sources reported that bids were in the low-$350s/mt FOB and offers in the upper $350s/mt FOB.
The estimated Arab Gulf price is not attributed to the Arab producers. The Qafco offer of $400/mt FOB confirmed the pricing ideas from Arab producers, but remained too expensive for IPL to consider.
Sources expected this tender to be a battle between Yuzhnyy and Iranian producers. Whatever tons come out of the Arab Gulf for India are expected to be Iranian.
The lowest offers were made for “Open” sourced tons. Emmsons, Swiss Singapore and Quantum have all offered Iranian tons in the past. Sources say there is little chance the traders have found cheaper backers.