The intense fertilizer price volatility of first-quarter 2022, which included the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, has long abated and has given way to much lower prices in the fertilizer industry for first-quarter 2023, with that downturn reflected in the Bloomberg Consensus, the average estimate of major analysts.
While CF Industries Holdings Inc., The Mosaic Co., and Nutrien Ltd. are all expected to post much lower results for first-quarter 2023 than for the same quarter in 2022, their performance will still far exceed first-quarter 2021.
CF’s first-quarter results are to be released May 1, Mosaic’s on May 3, and Nutrien’s on May 11.
| CF | 1Q-23* | 1Q-22 | 1Q-21 |
| Adj. EBITDA | .867 | 1.65 | .398 |
| Revenues | 1.87 | 2.9 | 1.05 |
| Net Income | .477 | .883 | .151 |
| Mosaic | 1Q-23* | 1Q-22 | 1Q-21 |
| Adj. EBITDA | .805 | 1.45 | .560 |
| Revenues | 3.24 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| Net Income | .435 | 1.18 | .157 |
| Nutrien | 1Q-23* | 1Q-22 | 1Q-21 |
| Adj. EBITDA | 1.69 | 2.6 | .806 |
| Revenues | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 |
| Net Income | .833 | 1.4 | .133 |
*Bloomberg Consensus; Financials in billions.