Late Christmas Eve, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers advised industry of the most current 28-day weather and water forecast for the Mississippi River area near Thebes, Ill., south of St. Louis, where rock pinnacle removal work is taking place. The forecast suggests that commerce on the Mississippi River could come to an effective halt earlier than expected in the New Year, around Jan. 3 or 4. Earlier forecasts had suggested that the congressionally authorized nine-foot navigation channel could remain in operation until perhaps the middle of January.
The latest forecast calls for the Mississippi River gauge at Thebes to be at 3 feet and falling on or around Jan. 3-4, with vessel drafts limited to 8 feet. The forecast for the river gauge to reach to 2 feet and falling will be on or around Jan. 12-13, allowing only a 7-foot maximum vessel draft. It is estimated that the river will reach a reading of 1 foot and falling on or around Jan.19, which equates to 6 feet of navigable depth. The majority of towboats require a 9-foot draft to operate and only a very small number of towing vessels can operate at 8- or 7-foot drafts.
Stakeholders continue to urge the Administration to release a minimal amount of water from the Missouri River reservoirs (4,000 cfs or 1 percent of current storage in the reservoir system) to avert this effective shutdown of the Mississippi River to barge transportation. While the Corps and the Coast Guard have said that they have no plans to close the river, this latest forecast and falling water levels will preclude navigation because towboats will be unable to transit the “bottleneck reach” between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill., according to The Waterways Council Inc. and the American Waterways Operators.