U.S. Gulf:
NOLA potash barge trades were reported at $325-$335/st FOB, up from the week-ago $315-$325/st FOB. With their fill programs now complete, domestic producer postings for NOLA were as high as $365/st FOB for Q4 availability.
U.S. Imports:
July-March potash imports firmed 13.8 percent year-over-year, to 10.26 million st from 9.01 million st. Imports moved 24.2 percent higher in March, lifting to 1.41 million st from the year-ago 1.14 million st.
Canadian imports topped the fertilizer year-to-date with 8.20 million st, a 5.5 percent increase from the year-ago 7.77 million st. Russia’s 1.00 million st total was 83.1 percent above the prior-year 546,013 st, while tons sourced from Belarus firmed 12.9 percent, to 614,893 st from the year-ago 544,705 st. Cargoes from Israel totaled 318,541 st, up 294.8 percent from the year-ago 80,694 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Prompt potash prices were higher following last week’s brief summer fill offers from Nutrien and Mosaic. Sources quoted the river terminal market at $370-$395/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, supplier, and time of shipment, with inland warehouses moving to $$390-$400/st FOB.
Mosaic confirmed that its summer fill program was sold out at the previous week’s offer of $365/st FOB river terminals and $370/st FOB inland terminals in the Midwest. The company said it is now referenced at $395/st FOB river and $400/st FOB inland for Q4 availability.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources quoted the potash market at $365-$380/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the Caruthersville market pegged at the $375/st FOB level. “Most have taken potash fill at $365/st FOB and are trying to move up after fill,” said one source.
Nutrien reported that it is now “fully committed” for both domestic and international potash sales through Sept. 30, with new orders priced $30/st higher than last week’s fill offer, or at roughly $400/st FOB Midwest terminals. The company also said that it “reserves the right to take this price higher if demand continues to be stronger than expected.”
A Nutrien source noted that the company will have the normal maintenance shutdowns for its mines, including its Rocanville mine, which will be taken down in October and will remove roughly 500,000 mt from Nutrien’s supply.
Southern Plains:
Potash pricing was reported at $350/st FOB Houston and $360-$375/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, with the latter market showing a $15/st increase from last week. Delivered potash into central Texas was pegged at $405-$420/st for Q3 tons, depending on grade.
Intrepid raised its potash prices by $20/st on May 10, with new postings FOB Carlsbad, N.M., firming to $450/st for 60 percent white granular and $457/st for 62 percent white standard. Postings FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, firmed to $445/st FOB for 60 percent white standard and $450/st FOB for 60 percent white granular.
South Central:
Potash prices firmed to $355-$380/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, up $10-$20/st from last report, depending on location. The lower end of the range was reported at Memphis and the high at Shreveport, with most warehouses reported at the $375/st FOB level for new offers.
Southeast:
Potash pricing had reportedly firmed to $370/st FOB Wilmington, up $15-$25/st from last report.
China:
Like some of the other potash suppliers, K+S does not expect the China seaborne potash supply contract price of $247/mt CFR to be renegotiated, as happened with India’s contract price. To date, Belarusian Potash Co. (BPC) is the only major supplier to go public with its new supply agreement with China, which was announced in February at $247/mt for deliveries through Dec. 31, 2021 (GM Feb. 10, p. 16).
“China is a completely different situation. The country is a big potash importer. It has higher inventories [than India]. Though not very high, the inventories are high enough to use for the rest of this year,” K+S Chairman Burkhard Lohr told analysts at a company first-quarter earnings call on May 11.
As do some of the other potash suppliers, Lohr expects China to sign a new supply contract early in 2022 or “maybe even at the end of this year,” and he expects it to show a higher price than the current level.
K+S has not confirmed if it has agreed to a new supply contract with India following the renegotiation of the contract price to $280/mt CFR. The company was among the suppliers to reject the original India contract price of $247/mt CFR reached between BPC and Indian Potash Ltd. in late January (GM Jan. 29, p. 17), and had said it would refrain from deliveries to India until further notice (GM Feb 5, p. 16).
Nutrien Ltd. EVP CEO Pedro Farah on May 12 told participants at the Goldman Sachs Virtual Industrials and Materials Conference that potash is at “mid-cycle prices,” meaning more upside is in the cards given the strong demand for fertilizers, according to Bloomberg.Stocks are fairly low and the market “very receptive,” Farah said, and he sees “not only a good environment now, but probably a momentum.”
India:
There has been no news on RCF’s tender for 105,000 mt of standard potash (35,000 mt firm quantities and 70,000 mt at the buyer’s option) that closed on May 3 (GM May 7, p. 19). Offers are required to remain valid for 30 days from tender opening.
Israel:
ICL produced 1.15 million mt of potash in the first quarter, a marginal uptick from the year-ago 1.14 million mt. Sales increased 8 percent, to 1.075 million from 996,000 mt.
Brazil:
MOP prices moved up dramatically to $360-$385/mt CFR at Paranagua. By the end of the week, sellers began telling potential buyers that the new price was $400/mt CFR, but so far no deals at that level have been done. Buyers and sellers agree that part of the push on pricing is due to the lack of available material at the ports and inland.
Rondonopolis now has a higher and wider range than last week, with sources reporting the price at $420-$496/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sorriso also showed a jump of $20-$30/mt, to $440-$470/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
The barter rate for 1 mt of MOP at Rondonopolis remained steady at 21 bags of soy or 55 bags of corn. At Southern Goias, the rate changed to 21.9 bags of soy or 42.6 bags of corn.
MOP imports for the first four months of the year were up 38.7 percent, to 3.2 million mt from 2.3 million mt last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. April 2021 imports were up 12 percent, to 685,000 mt from 612,000 mt.