U.S. Gulf:
NOLA potash barge prices continued to surge. The market was quoted at $345-$362/st FOB, up from the week-ago $330-$345/st FOB. Domestic producers are posted at $365/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash remained at $375-$400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location. Spot pricing in late May included $375/st FOB Burns Harbor, $380/st FOB East Dubuque, $385/st FOB Ottawa, $385-$395/st FOB Cincinnati, and $400/st FOB inland warehouses.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources quoted potash pricing at $375-$400/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high reflecting producer postings for 4Q shipment. The market FOB Camanche firmed $5/st from the previous week, to $380/st FOB for May-June tons.
Northern Plains:
Sources quoted the potash market at a firm $380-$390/st FOB St. Paul for prompt, with producer reference pricing at the $400/st FOB level for 4Q tons. The market to U.S. buyers FOB Saskatchewan mines was pegged at $360-$370/st after netbacks, depending on grade.
Great Lakes:
Sources pegged the potash market at $385-$415/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, depending on grade and location, with the upper end reported out of Toledo, Ohio. As with most other products, Michigan sources reported extremely tight potash inventories, with white tons essentially unavailable in late May.
Northeast:
Potash prices in the Northeast began the week firmly at the $390/st level FOB Fairless Hills for May-June tons, up $10/st from early May. On May 27, however, the Fairless price firmed again, to $415/st FOB.
China:
China’s potash imports increased 22 percent in the January-April period, according to Trade Data Monitor, reaching 3.54 million mt, up from the year-ago 2.90 million mt. Notable year-over-year increases were seen in volumes from Belarus, Israel, and Laos.
China Potash Imports (000 mt)
| Jan-April 2021 | Jan-April 2020 | % Change | |
| Total | 3,541 | 2,902 | +22 |
| Canada | 1,059 | 1,358 | (22) |
| Russia | 905 | 897 | +1 |
| Belarus | 890 | 321 | +177 |
| Israel | 275 | 51 | +439 |
| Jordan | 223 | 235 | (5) |
| Laos | 163 | 29 | +462 |
| Uzbekistan | 26 | 0 | – |
| Germany | * | 10 | – |
* 168 mt
April 2021 imports of 949,000 mt were up 26 percent, to 949,000 mt from 752,000 mt in April 2020. The main suppliers for April were Canada at 271,000 mt, Belarus at 255,000 mt, and Russia at 209,000 mt.
Thailand:
January-April MOP imports in Thailand for this year almost doubled compared to the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. Thailand brought in 282,000 mt in the first four months of the year, compared with 145,000 mt during the same period in 2020. April imports more than doubled, to 71,000 mt from 35,000 mt in April 2020.
Brazil:
The upper end of the MOP range in Brazil moved to $385-$400/mt CFR at Paranagua. Sources said the demand is building, but shipments are not arriving with sufficient tons to satisfy that demand. Buyers are facing delayed and canceled orders of the imported product, with nowhere else to turn but to the holders of the limited tons already in the country.
Even as portside drama is causing higher prices, sources reported a drop at Rondonopolis to $480-$502/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said the drop is seen as more of a correction in pricing than any sign of a downward trend, as a scramble for tons in the previous few weeks boosted prices.
Sources said some potential buyers decided to hold back to see if the upward trend would stick. When cracks were seen in pricing earlier this week, buyers helped the slide along with lower bids, but not ones that were so low that they could be ignored.
The barter rate for 1 mt of MOP is now at 20.79 bags of soybeans or 57.39 bags of corn.
Belarus:
Belarus potash exports increased 30 percent in the first quarter, according to Trade Data Monitor, reaching 3 million mt from last year’s 2.90 million mt. Destination data by volume is not available, but in value terms, China was the number one destination for Belarusian potash exports, rising six-fold from the first quarter of 2020, according to Belstat, Belarus’ National Statistical Committee.
Belarusian potash shipments to Brazil in value terms increased 9 percent. The U.S. became the third-largest market for Belaruskali with a share exceeding 12 percent in first-quarter 2021, versus just 4 percent last year.
U.S. imports of Belarusian potash totaled 238,387 mt in the quarter, up 48 percent from last year’s 161,186 mt.
Bangladesh:
The Ministry of Agriculture closes its annual purchase tender for the supply of potash and DAP on June 3 (GM May 21, p. 16). The ministry is looking for 200,000 mt of standard potash for shipment by Oct. 15.