U.S. Gulf:
The NOLA potash barge price shot up after Mosaic announced a 1 million mt cut in potash production through March 2022. Almost immediately, the number became $400/st FOB and it stuck. The week-ago range was $365-$380/st FOB.
Late in the week, there were reports of prices as high as $412/st FOB being quoted, but others said those were for September-October.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash prices were up sharply on reports that Mosaic would be cutting near-term potash production by 1 million mt. The warehouse market was quoted in the $425-$450/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the previous week’s $395-$420/st FOB, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati earlier in the week and the high at East Dubuque, Ill. One source reported rumors of a possible $50/st increase coming in the near term.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources quoted potash pricing at $425-$460/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up dramatically from the prior week’s $395-$415/st FOB range. Most Iowa locations were firmly in the $450-$460/st FOB range as the week progressed, with the St. Louis market quoted at the $445/st FOB level on June 10.
California:
Potash pricing in California had reportedly strengthened $30/st, to $535/st FOB for 60 percent and $545/st FOB for 62 percent MOP.
Pacific Northwest:
Potash pricing was quoted at $460-$470/st FOB and $470-$480/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest. Potash postings FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, remained at $445/st FOB for 60 percent white standard and $450/st FOB for 60 percent white granular.
Western Canada:
The Western Canada potash price strengthened to C$560/mt FOB Saskatchewan mines for truck tons, up some C$30/mt from last report and C$55/mt higher than the limited fill program offers that circulated in early May.
China:
Potash import inventory is down to around 2.5 million mt, according to Jenny Wang, Vice President, Global Strategic Marketing, for The Mosaic Co. She said this is below the three-year average and indicated that potash supply in China is “very tight.”
Wang, who was participating in Mosaic’s presentation at the Exane BNP Paribas 23rd European CEO Virtual Conference on June 7, said China’s potash buyers will want to get supply contract negotiations started now.In the tight global market situation, however, she thinks it will be difficult for China to get any supplier to commit to a price they like.
“So from our perspective, it does not matter when the next negotiations are going to happen,” she said. “But it really matters for the buyer side.”
Russia:
Russia’s potash exports reached 3.85 million mt in the first four months of 2021, according to Trade Data Monitor, up 89 percent from 2.04 million mt for the same period last year. Big gains were seen particularly in export volumes to China, Brazil, Indonesia, and the U.S.
Russian potash exports Jan.-April (‘000 mt)
| Jan-Apr 2021 | Jan-April 2020 | % change | |
| World | 3,848 | 2,039 | +89 |
| Of which: | |||
| China | 886 | 404 | +119 |
| Brazil | 821 | 503 | +63 |
| Indonesia | 432 | 105 | +311 |
| U.S. | 428 | 124 | +246 |
| Estonia | 283 | 138 | +105 |
| India | 156 | 95 | +64 |
| Finland | 142 | 100 | +42 |
| Malaysia | 125 | 42 | +195 |
| Nigeria | 106 | 75 | +41 |
| Poland | 96 | 53 | +80 |
| Belgium | 49 | 48 | +3 |
| Bangladesh | 0 | 79 | (100) |
Brazil:
As expected, potash prices moved up in Brazil. Sources reported Paranagua deals at $420-$450/mt CFR. The movement has suppliers pushing to go past the $450/mt CFR mark.
The movement in Brazil is reflective of an overall concern of higher prices in potash. Sources in Asia said part of the concern comes from potential sanctions by the U.S. against companies from Belarus because of that government’s action of diverting a civilian aircraft to arrest a journalist. If sanctions are imposed on BPC, sources said MOP prices could have an even greater increase.
Inland prices also showed an increase of about $60/mt in just a week, to $460-$580/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Trade Data Monitor reported that January-May 2021 imports of 4.03 million mt, an increase of about 13 percent from the 3.6 million mt imported during the same period last year.The main suppliers during the first five months were Russia at 1.2 million mt, Canada at 1.1 million mt, and Belarus at 910,000 mt.Imports for May were down by about a third, to 822,000 mt from 1.2 million mt in May 2020.