U.S. Gulf:
NOLA potash barge price ideas continued to shoot up. All contacts reported no near-term material available. The closest and most consistent pricing was for September-October and was reported at $455/st FOB, if not higher. That number equates to the lower end of the current Brazil range of $500-$515/mt CFR. Sources speculated that if there was indeed a prompt barge to be had, it would likely go for a higher number.
The week-ago price was tagged as $400/st FOB, which came after Mosaic announced it would be cutting production by some 1 million mt through March 2022.
U.S. Imports:
MOP imports lifted 12.8 percent for the July-April period, totaling 11.91 million st versus the year-ago 10.56 million st. April imports rose 4.0 percent, to 1.61 million st from the year-ago 1.55 million st.
Imports from Canada led the fertilizer year-to-date with 9.36 million st, a 3.2 percent increase from the year-ago 9.06 million st. Russia’s 1.30 million st July-April total was 74.5 percent higher than the prior-year 747,439 st, while tons loading from Belarus firmed 31.1 percent, to 713,953 st from the year-ago 544,705 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash prices in the Eastern Cornbelt firmed again at mid-month. The market rose to $450-$485/st FOB in the region, up from the prior week’s $425-$450/st FOB, with the high reported out of inland warehouses on a spot basis.
River terminal prices at mid-month included $450-$460/st FOB Cincinnati, and $465/st FOB Ottawa and East Dubuque for limited tons.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources quoted potash pricing at $450-$465/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up $5-$25/st from last report, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high at Camanche.
Northern Plains:
Sources quoted the potash market at a firm $490-$500/st FOB St. Paul during the week, up some $50/st from the previous week and a full $110/st higher than late-May levels. The market to U.S. buyers FOB Saskatchewan mines was pegged at $410-$420/st after netbacks, depending on grade, reflecting another $20/st increase from the prior week.
Great Lakes:
The potash market firmed to $485-$505/st FOB for limited supply in the Great Lakes region, with the low reported in Wisconsin and the high in Michigan.
Northeast:
The last potash prices were confirmed at $465/st FOB East Liverpool, up dramatically from $390-$415/st FOB in late May, but suppliers had reportedly pulled offers at both East Liverpool and Fairless Hills in mid-June. Sources said they expected some resupply by the end of the week, but no new prices were reported.
Eastern Canada:
Sources pegged the potash market firmly at the C$560/mt level FOB regional warehouses in Eastern Canada.
India:
FACT on June 15 called a tender for the purchase of one shipment of 40,000 mt of red/pink standard potash for arrival at Tuticorin port on Aug. 1-31. The tender closes on June 29.
RCF last month awarded its full May 3 tender tonnage of 105,000 mt of standard potash to Belarus Potash Co. (BPC) at a price level reported to be above India’s current contract price of $280/mt CFR (GM May 21, p. 16).
Brazil:
Sources reported small potash deals at Paranagua at higher prices. Deals throughout the week were reported at $500-$505/mt CFR. As the week closed, however, a sale was confirmed at $515/mt CFR.
Traders complain of limited tonnage on hand to trade. Some have accused suppliers of holding back shipments to boost prices, and then swooping in to nail down a higher price with material still on a ship about to be unloaded.
Rondonopolis MOP jumped to $540-$625/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The move showed an increase of $45/mt on the upper end of the previous price range and a more dramatic $80/mt on the lower end. Sources said the emphasis by the end of the week was all at the upper end.