U.S. Gulf:
NOLA potash barge price ideas continued to soar. No near-term deals were reported, but September-October was called $495/st FOB, up from the week-ago $455/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash prices in the Eastern Cornbelt firmed again, driven by tight supply and rapidly strengthening NOLA barge values. The market rose to $485-$535/st FOB during the week, up from the prior week’s $450-$485/st FOB, with the low reported at Cincinnati and East Dubuque, and the high at Ottawa.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources quoted potash pricing at $485-$520/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up another $35-$55/st from the previous week, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high at Camanche.
Southern Plains:
Potash prices were up significantly but covered a broad range in the Southern Plains as the week progressed, from a low of $475/st FOB Houston to a high of $535/st FOB Catoosa/Inola.
Intrepid on June 22 announced new potash postings at all mine locations, with Carlsbad, N.M., prices jumping to $540/st for 60 percent white granular and $547/st for 62 percent white standard. New postings FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, include $540/st for 60 percent white standard and $535/st for 60 percent white granular.
Intrepid said the new postings represent a $90/st increase over previous prices and are in response to the rapid market appreciation in the barge and inland warehouse markets. The company indicates they are sold out for Q3, with only limited spot tons available to historical customers at the new pricing.
South Central:
Potash prices in the South Central region covered a wide range as the week progressed. While the low was confirmed early in the week at $455-$460/st FOB Memphis, sources quoted levels as high as $500-$505/st FOB in Arkansas and Louisiana by midweek, amid ongoing reports of very tight inventories.
Southeast:
Southeast sources described very tight potash inventories, with “scattered truck tons” available in the $455-$485/st FOB range out of port terminals, up from $440-$465/st FOB at last report. “The rumor is $500/st FOB or more when import tons get in here,” commented one regional source.
Northwest Europe:
Potash prices moved up across the region amid looming sanctions by the E.U. (see news story on p. 1). Sources report granular prices as high as $290/mt CIF.
India:
FACT closes a tender on June 29 for one shipment of 40,000 mt of red/pink standard potash for arrival at Tuticorin in August (GM June 18, p. 16).
Brazil:
Sources reported the Paranagua MOP price at $500-$520/mt CFR, showing a bit of gain at the upper end of the range. Sources also reported rumors of deals coming in at $550/mt CFR. While there was no confirmation of the $550/mt CFR business, sources were confident that evidence of deals at that level will soon be forthcoming.
Rondonopolis was reported down to $580-$590/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The decline was attributed to limited demand and limited supply. This breather in pricing, however, is expected to end soon, with prices poised to move up again.
China:
January-May MOP imports were up 21 percent, to 4.1 million mt from 3.4 million mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor.
Canada, Russia, and Belarus were the top three suppliers of MOP this year. However, tonnage from Canada dropped to 1.2 million mt for the period, about 24 percent below last year’s 6 million mt. Belarus showed a more than 200 percent increase in shipments to China, to 1 million mt from 338,000 mt in January-May 2020.
May imports were up 15 percent, to 555,000 mt from 460,000 mt in May 2020. The main suppliers this year were Russia at 200,000 mt, and Canada and Belarus each at 130,000 mt. The Canadian numbers once again showed a dramatic drop from last year’s 201,000 mt, while Belarus was up some 17,000 mt from May 2020.