U.S. Gulf:
Price ideas continued to be up for NOLA potash, but it was still hard to find word of actual new trades beyond the last done $495/st FOB. Recent speculation ranged in the $520-$550/st FOB span.
U.S. Imports:
MOP imports rose 12.6 percent for the July-May period, totaling 13.14 million st versus the year-ago 11.68 million st. May imports rose 10.8 percent, to 1.23 million st from the year-ago 1.11 million st.
Material originating from Canada led the fertilizer year-to-date with 10.53 million st, a 4.5 percent increase from the year-ago 10.07 million st. Russia’s 1.37 million st July-May total was 66.4 percent above the prior-year 822,421 st, while tons loading from Belarus firmed 27.3 percent, to 713,953 st from the year-ago 560,751 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash was quoted at $570-$585/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported for the latest offers out of East Dubuque. Sources said no spot quotes were available out of Cincinnati during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources reported potash pricing firmly at the $570-$575/st FOB level for very limited offers in the Western Cornbelt in early July. “People want fourth-quarter pricing, but no one wants to offer any,” said one regional contact.
Northern Plains:
Sources quoted the potash market at a firm $565-$575/st FOB St. Paul during the week. The market to U.S. buyers FOB Saskatchewan mines was pegged at $410-$420/st after netbacks, depending on grade.
Northeast:
Sources pegged the regional potash market in the Northeast at $575-$600/st FOB based on very limited offers, with the upper end confirmed at Wilmington, N.C., for prompt tons late in the week.
India:
FACT issued a new tender on July 6 for the purchase of 40,000 mt of red/pink standard potash in two shipments. The company reportedly scrapped an earlier tender for a single 40,000 mt shipment, which closed on June 29 (GM July 2, p. 15).
The new tender calls for the loading of the first shipment in August and the second in September. Both cargoes are for delivery to Tuticorin/Vizag port. The tender closes on July 21.
China:
Potash inventory at the seaports was put at 2.06 million mt as of July 6, according to China National Chemical Information Center Co. Ltd. (CNCIC). This makes for around 0.56 million mt sitting at the port that is useable. Some 1.5 million mt of port inventory is typically labelled as strategic reserve, according to Nutrien’s Executive Vice President and CEO of Potash Ken Seitz, speaking at a company earnings call in May (GM May 7, p. 18).
Brazil:
The MOP market in Brazil remains on fire. Prices jumped to $620-$660/mt CFR at Paranagua amidst limited trading.
Inland buyers were hesitant to buy, but when they did the price was also higher than last week. Sources put the Rondonopolis price at $620-$700/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Farmers appear to be taking just what they need, even as they argue that prices should turn around soon.
MOP imports for the first semester this year were up 8.8 percent, to 5 million mt from 4.6 million mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The three main supplies so far this year were Russia at 1.5 million mt, up 16 percent from 2020; Canada at 1.3 million mt, down 18 percent from last year; and Belarus at 1.1 million mt, up 20 percent from the same period last year.
June imports were down 5.8 percent, to 994,000 mt from 1.1 million mt in June 2020. Second-quarter MOP imports were also down about 14 percent, to 2.5 million mt from 2.9 million mt in April-June 2020.