U.S. Gulf:
NOLA potash barge trades were pegged in a broad range at $550-$580/st FOB, up from the week-ago $550/st FOB. While some players reported $550-$560/st FOB, others confirmed that barges had moved to as high as $580/st. As a result, some sellers were reported to now be eyeing $600-$610/st FOB.
While some sellers have their sights on higher prices, others expressed fears of demand destruction, saying some inland buyers are not readily accepting the new price increases.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash prices remained firm-to-higher in the Eastern Cornbelt, with reports of new prompt offers as high as $610/st FOB out of some Ohio River terminals. The low remained at the $570/st FOB level for 4Q offers from Nutrien, which confirmed that it is fully allocated through November.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources continued to quote the potash market in a broad range at $570-$600/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, supplier, and time of shipment. The St. Louis market was pegged in the $585-$595/st FOB range for prompt tons in late August, with pricing at St. Paul confirmed at the $590-$600/st FOB level.
Southern Plains:
The Houston potash market had reportedly jumped to $590/st FOB, with pricing at Catoosa/Inola pegged in the $575-$590/st FOB range. Intrepid’s Aug. 9 potash postings FOB Carlsbad, N.M., firmed to $620/st for 60 percent white granular and $627/st for 62 percent white standard. Those levels reflect an $80/st increase from the previous list prices, and a $200/st increase over the company’s summer fill offers.
South Central:
The potash market in the South Central region had reportedly firmed to $590-$600/st FOB Memphis, $600/st FOB Little Rock, Ark., and up to $610/st FOB in Kentucky out of spot Ohio River warehouses.
Southeast:
Potash remained at a firm $600-$610/st FOB port terminals for prompt tons in the Southeast.
China:
Imports of MOP for the first seven months of the year were up 8.6 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 5.1 million mt from 4.7 million mt during the same period last year. The main suppliers so far this year were Russia at 1.4 million mt, Canada at 1.4 million mt, and Belarus at 1.3 million mt.
July imports totaled 547,000, down from 857,000 mt in July 2020. Despite the overall drop, Belarus almost doubled its sales in July, to 181,000 mt from 92,000 mt in July 2020. Russia’s July exports to China dropped 20 percent, with Canada down 80 percent.
Brazil:
MOP prices moved up to $660-$720/mt CFR at Paranagua, with sources citing strong demand and delays in arriving vessels for the increase. Rondonopolis also showed a price increase on dwindling supplies and steady demand, with sources now quoting the market at $810-$880/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Sources said the NPK manufacturers appear to be getting more nervous about the inability of ships to get into the ports and the limited number of trucks to move the product inland. The uncertainty in the market is causing more than a few buyers to take what they can at whatever price is available.