U.S. Gulf:
The most recent NOLA potash barge trades were reported in the $570-$600/st FOB range.
U.S. Imports:
MOP imports were up 13.5 percent in July, to 1.17 million st from the prior year’s 1.03 million st. Canada dominated the import landscape at 998,312 st, followed by Russia at 80,469 st and Belarus at 73,343 st. Tons originating from Israel totaled 28,968 st for the period.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The potash market was pegged at $605-$625/st FOB for prompt tons in the Eastern Cornbelt, up $5-$15/st from last report.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash prices ranged broadly at $575-$615/st FOB in the region, depending on location and time of shipment, with the St. Louis market pegged at the $585-$605/st FOB level for prompt tons.
Northern Plains:
Potash prices ranged broadly in the Northern Plains, depending on supplier and time of shipment, with sources reporting limited 4Q offers for as low as $590/st FOB and prompt tons up to $640/st FOB St. Paul.
Delivered prompt potash was reported at the $660/st level in the region, with the last prices FOB Saskatchewan mines remaining at $545-$555/st FOB for 4Q tons, depending on grade.
Great Lakes:
The potash market was pegged at $615-$625/st FOB for red and up to $630/st FOB for white tons in the Great Lakes region, depending on location.
Northeast:
Potash pricing had reportedly strengthened to $620-$625/st FOB Fairless Hills, with the low for September tons and the high for Q4 shipments.
India:
No news was reported on RCF’s tender for 105,000 mt of white/pink standard potash, which closed on Aug. 27.
The tons were for delivery to Hay Bunder in three lots of 35,000 mt, with the first shipment to arrive on or before Oct. 15, the second on or before Nov. 15, and the third by Dec. 21. Offers were required to remain valid for 30 days from the tender closing.
China:
China’s plan to wait for potash prices to drop before signing a supply contract will not be a successful strategy this year due to the strong global market, Nutrien Ltd. CFO Pedro Farah said at the RBC Capital Markets Global Industrials Virtual Conference on Sept. 9.
“We think at some point and time there is enough pressure there that they will have to come to the table,” he said, citing decreasing inventories in the country. Through Canpotex “we basically have had no sales to China right now,” he said. “I don’t think we’re feeling pressured to sell anything.”
Farah said Nutrien is not interested in selling below the market price and expects all parties will come to the table to sign a potash supply contract at “very rational prices.”
Brazil:
The upper end of the range for MOP at Paranagua moved up $20/mt, widening the price range to $700-$770/mt CFR. Sources said the price shift is the result of limited MOP availability at the ports. Reportedly, a number of MOP vessels are still waiting for permission to dock and unload.
Once the ships berth, getting the fertilizer to the inland buyers will be difficult. For weeks there has been a shortage of trucks to move fertilizers from the ports to regional distributors. Sources said a politically motivated strike by truckers is now cutting further into the ability to transport fertilizer away from the ports.
The range in Rondonopolis has tightened to $830-$884/mt FOB ex-warehouse, the result of steady demand running into limited supplies. The barter rate for 1 mt of MOP at Sorriso is pegged at 42 bags of soy or 100 bags of corn.
MOP imports for January-August were up 8.8 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 7.8 million mt from 7.2 million mt during the same period last year. Canada at 2.45 million mt, Russia at 2.3 million mt, and Belarus at 1.6 million mt dominated supplies to Brazil so far this year.
August imports were also up this year, to 1.5 million mt from 1.25 million mt in August 2020.