U.S. Gulf:
NOLA potash price quotes were nearing the $700/st FOB mark last week and were meeting resistance. Sources put the last done business at $670-$685/st, up from $650-$685/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The potash market was quoted at $710-$730/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash remained at $700-$730/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the St. Louis market pegged at $710-$715/st FOB and Caruthersville pricing reported at $725/st FOB at midweek.
Southern Plains:
Potash pricing was pegged at $725-$745/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low confirmed at Catoosa/Inola and the high at Houston. The last postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $675/st FOB for 60 percent white granular and $695/st FOB for 62 percent white standard.
South Central:
The potash market had reportedly firmed to $720-$740/st FOB in the South Central region, up another $25-$30/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Memphis and the high at Shreveport. Most Arkansas River warehouses were pegged at the $725-$730/st FOB range in late October.
Southeast:
Potash was quoted at $700/st FOB Wilmington for the last prompt offers, with the latest offer FOB Fairless Hills reported at the $750/st level for Q4 tons.
China:
Potash prices in China were reported to have dropped by around 10 percent from the decade-high levels reached in August, following the Oct. 15 announcement by the government of planned auctions of state reserves. The auctions took place on Oct. 20-22.
According to an Oct. 25 report by Beijing-based Caixin Global, citing the latest government data from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the price of domestic potash dropped to 3,281 yuan/ton ($513.8/mt), down 11.5 percent from Aug. 5, while the price of imported potash fell by 9 percent from its peak on Aug. 15, to 3,647 yuan/ton.
The two bidding sessions that took place on Oct. 20-22 offered potash supplied by state-owned CNAMPGC Holding Ltd. Corp., Sinofert Holdings Ltd., and Cncc Fine Chemical Co. Ltd.
Sinofert Holdings and CNAMPGC, along with Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co. Ltd. (QSL), last month were fined by the country’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) for “price gouging” on sales of potash (GM Oct. 1, p. 1). SAMR fined Sinofert Holdings and CNAMPGC each 2.6 million yuan, and QSL was fined 1.6 million yuan “for their behaviors in potassium chloride transactions this year” that violated China’s Price Law.
Unnamed analysts, cited by the Caixin Global report, cautioned that releasing domestic reserves only goes so far to solve the country’s potash shortages, however, since the reserves come from domestic firms, while many Chinese fertilizer firms remain reliant on imports.
China’s national potash reserves in recent years have typically been maintained at the 1.5 million mt level. The country’s potash inventory at the ports has been steady at 2.0-2.3 million mt since the summer. Port inventory was reported at 2.2 million mt as of Oct. 26, according to a China Fertilizer Week report. China’s potash imports through the end of September were down 11 percent year-over-year, to 6.1 million mt.
Canada:
Canpotex Ltd. on Oct. 28 said it is now fully committed on potash sales volumes through the end of this year. The export organization said this is due to continued strong demand and solid fundamentals for agricultural commodities in key offshore markets.
Canpotex said the focus on food security in a number of its markets is also providing continued demand for potash.
Brazil:
Softer prices were the main topic of discussion in Paranagua after rumors circulated that any possible sanctions imposed on BPC by the U.S. might not affect Brazil. At the same time, the arrival of more product at the ports also provided more liquidity in the market. Prices moderated a bit, to $760-$825/mt CFR.
Helping ease the pricing situation are reports that more vessels laden with MOP are gaining access to the unloading berths. However, inland buyers are still concerned that once this product is unloaded at the ports, getting it to the local distributors and blenders may still be an issue because of the limited availability of trucks and rumors of a trucker strike.
The price in Rondonopolis widened to $900-$970/mt FOB ex-warehouse.The barter rate in Mato Grosso has also shifted to 112 bags of corn for 1 mt of MOP, compared with 105 bags last week.
Thailand:
January-September imports of MOP were reported at 783,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 32 percent jump from the 592,000 mt imported during the same period in 2020. The main suppliers were Canada at 291,000 mt and Belarus at 258,000 mt.
Third-quarter imports were up slightly, at 269,000 mt compared with 265,000 mt imported during the same period last year. September 2021 imports were reported at 106,000 mt, compared with 59,000 mt in September 2020.