U.S. Gulf:
NOLA potash barges were reported to be on the table at $645/st, down from the week-ago $670-$680/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The potash market was quoted at $715-$745/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from the last reported range of $740-$760/st FOB, with both the high and low end of the range confirmed at Cincinnati during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash was quoted at $710-$740/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the upper end confirmed in the Iowa market. St. Louis potash prices were pegged at $710-$730/st FOB in late August.
Northern Plains:
Sources quoted potash pricing at $730-$750/st FOB and $770-$775/st rail-DEL in the Northern Plains. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines were reported at $728-$740/st after netbacks, depending on grade and destination.
Northeast:
The potash market was pegged at $720-$750/st FOB in the Northeast, with the low confirmed at East Liverpool. Rail-DEL pricing was reported at the $775/st level in Pennsylvania.
Eastern Canada:
The potash market in Eastern Canada reportedly firmed to C$1,056-$1,110/mt FOB warehouses, with the upper end reflecting an increase for post-fill offers.
China:
Imports of MOP for January-July 2022 were reported at 4.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 7% from the 5.1 million mt imported during the same period in 2021.The main suppliers for China are Russia, Belarus, and Canada. Of the 4.8 million mt imported so far this year, those three accounted for 3.7 million mt of the total volumes.
July 2022 imports were reported at 693,000 mt, up from 547,000 mt in July 2021.
Brazil:
The price of MOP tightened to $800-$860/mt CFR in Brazil. Sources said the full warehouses and steady stream of vessels with cargo are providing a downward push on prices.
Following the imposition of sanctions on Belarus by the US and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine – two major suppliers of potash to Brazil – buyers picked up what they could at higher prices. With Russia sending Brazil all the potash it needs, warehouses are now full of product purchased at prices higher than current levels.
One international trader commented that eventually there will be a “night of the long knives,” when holders of the product face financial losses to clear out their holdings.
Rondonopolis is reported at $910-$970/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Full warehouses remain an issue for local distributors. One possible ray of sunshine for the Brazilian market is that if the Chinese crop production is down because of the drought and high temperatures, China may turn to Brazil for its soy and corn. If that happens, the ratio between crops and fertilizer might improve enough to ease some of the pain in the market.