US Gulf:
NOLA potash barges continued to drift lower. The market was reported at $565-$580/st FOB, with an average slightly below the week-ago $574-$575/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash pricing sunk to $670-$690/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down another $15-$25/st, with the lower end of the range confirmed at Cincinnati. Pricing out of Michigan warehouses fell in the $700-$734/st FOB range in early October.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash pricing was quoted at $660-$690/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, reflecting another drop from the previous week, with the St. Louis market pegged in the $660-$675/st FOB range. The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., potash market was reported in the $675-$680/st FOB range in early October.
Northern Plains:
Sources quoted potash pricing at $690-$700/st FOB and $730/st rail-DEL in the Northern Plains. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines, based on current exchange rates, were reported at $648-$658/st after netbacks, depending on grade and destination.
Northeast:
The latest potash offers in the Northeast were confirmed at $705/st FOB East Liverpool and $735/st FOB Fairless Hills, with rail-DEL tons pegged at the $730/st level in the Pennsylvania market.
Eastern Canada:
The potash market in Eastern Canada remained in the C$1,056-$1,110/mt range FOB warehouses, unchanged from last report.
Sri Lanka:
Singapore-based Ameropa Asia (Pvt) Ltd. has been awarded the contract to supply standard potash for Sri Lanka’s 2022/23 Maha cultivation season, local media reported. The so-called Maha season falls during the “Northeast monsoon” from September to March in the following year.
Most reports, including Economy Next, estimated the volume to be supplied under the contract at 50,000 mt, although others indicated a total of 40,000 mt. Neither the origin of the potash nor the price details have been reported.
The purchase is being financed by an Asian Development Bank credit of $50 million, according to Economy Next, citing Cabinet spokesperson Minister Bandula Gunawardana. Sri Lanka’s Cabinet approved the award on Oct. 4.
Brazil:
Suppliers said the current price of MOP at $650/mt CFR is the floor. However, reports quickly circulated of a deal inside the country showing a netback to the ports of $570/mt CFR.
Industry watchers are careful about using calculations from the inland to set port prices because of the numerous variable costs that go into getting product from port to local distribution center. As a result, many have discounted the $570/mt CFR price.
Sources were also careful to point out that even though $650/mt CFR does seem a low price, so far only the holders of the product are claiming that is as far down as the price will go.
The battle over prices reportedly has continued. Reportedly some buyers are bidding below the $650/mt CFR mark. At the same time, suppliers are pushing back and calling for higher prices.
A softer price of $765-$810/mt FOB ex-warehouse is seen by industry watchers as an indication of continued lack of interest by end users.
Imports of MOP for January-September 2022 were reported at 10.2 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 13% from the 9 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. Canada with 3.9 million mt, Russia with 2.6 million mt, and Germany with 1 million mt dominated the sales into Brazil.
September 2022 imports were down to 757,000 mt from the 1.2 million mt imported during September 2021. Canada controlled 58% of the import market with 442,000 mt, followed by Russia with 93,000 mt for 12% of the market. Israel supplied 89,000 mt, for another 12% of the import market.
Third-quarter 2022 imports were reported at 3.3 million mt, down 18% from the 4 million mt imported during the same period in 2021.