US Gulf:
NOLA potash barge prices tightened to $530-$535/st FOB, compared with the week-ago $525-$545/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash was quoted at $630-$650/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of river locations in Illinois and the high out of inland warehouses in Ohio. The Cincinnati potash market was pegged at the $635/st FOB level at midweek.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash pricing fell to $610-$640/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market reported in the $610-$630/st FOB range. The Catoosa/Inola potash market dropped to $610-$620/st FOB, down $5-$10/st from last week, while the St. Paul market slipped to $635-$640/st FOB.
California:
The potash market in California was reported at $870-$890/st FOB, depending on grade and location. Delivered tons were pegged at $875-$895/st in the state.
Pacific Northwest:
Potash pricing slipped to a broad $815-$865/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, depending on grade and supplier, with delivered tons pegged at $808-$872/st in early November. The last reference prices from Intrepid FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, included $850/st for 60% white standard and $855/st for 60% white granular.
Western Canada:
Sources quoted potash pricing at C$940-$990/mt FOB Saskatchewan mines for truck tons, depending on grade and supplier, down from C$990-$1,020/mt FOB in mid-October.
India/China:
Acknowledging that the domestic price for potash in China has softened, Nutrien Ltd. President and CEO Ken Seitz took a bullish stance at a company earnings call on Nov. 3, telling analysts the domestic price in China “doesn’t dictate” the contract settlement level with international suppliers.
“The negotiation is going to be based on what we are seeing in the global market, and this is a supply and demand driven market, and you will not find anywhere, whether it’s a spot market in Brazil or in North America, that is below the current contract price of $590/mt,” he said, adding that for standard grade potash in Southeast Asia, current prices are “well above” that level.
Seitz also pointed out that the suppliers who can negotiate “a meaningful quantity” under contract currently are “very few and far between,” adding that Canpotex and maybe one or two other suppliers fall into this category.
He believes buyers in India, where inventories are at extremely low levels, will have to step in to renew their annual potash contract and get product into the country before the spring planting season.
Nutrien sees India’s potash imports in calendar 2022 at 2.3-2.7 million mt. While Seitz doesn’t anticipate a huge increase in India’s potash consumption next year, he believes the low inventories are supportive of an increase in shipments to the country in 2023.
Seitz said China also needs to get potash into the country under a new contract before the start of its spring planting season. Nutrien sees China’s potash deliveries in 2022 at 13.5-14.5 million mt, down from 2021’s estimated 14-15 million mt.
Nutrien cited the current discounted China potash contract price relative to global spot markets as driving the expected reduced shipments in 2022. It added that China’s access to Russian and Belarusian potash by rail has offset reductions in seaborne potash trade this year.
Meanwhile, India is reported to be looking to strike a deal with Uralkali for the supply of 1 million mt of potash, India’s Economic Times reported, citing an unnamed senior official in India’s Department of Fertilizers.
Brazil:
The landed MOP price softened to $550-$590/mt CFR, with the lower end of the range reserved for large-scale purchases. Imports remain higher than the past even as demand has leveled off.
The Rondonopolis price range widened to $685-$760/mt FOB ex-warehouse as buyers look to the softer international market. The lower price seems to be offered only to those looking to take a long forward position, which few are anxious to do. The higher price in Rondonopolis seems to be reserved for the people needing prompt delivery.