US Gulf:
NOLA potash barge prices fell again. By late Thursday, sources were calling the market $410-$430/st FOB, down from the week-ago $440-$445/st FOB. Sources said the updated NOLA numbers were in line with the lower inland numbers that resulted from producer fill programs announced during the week.
US Imports:
July-November potash imports softened 16.2% year-over-year, to 4.88 million st from 5.83 million st. November imports were off 21.5%, falling to 1.03 million st from the year-ago 1.31 million st.
July-November imports from Canada totaled 4.25 million st, while Russia sent 489,225 st. Israel followed with 106,006 st.
US Exports:
Potash exports fell 24.1% in July-November, to 1.36 million st from the year-ago 1.79 million st. Shipments were counted at 134,137 st for November, down 57.3% from the year-ago 314,467 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash pricing began the week at $505-$510/st FOB most regional warehouses, but fill offers were reportedly launched at midweek at $475/st FOB river terminals and $480/st FOB inland warehouses, with orders due by Jan. 18 and shipment by March 31.
Nutrien’s program on Jan. 11 included $480/st FOB Midwest terminals; $495/st FOB Baltimore, Md.; $530-$560/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest; $615/st FOB in California for 62% MOP; C$715/mt FOB in Western Canada; and C$740/mt FOB in Eastern Canada.
Nutrien on Jan. 12 reported a good initial response to the program “with customers optimistic about a strong spring application season, supported by continued strength in agricultural commodity markets.” Nutrien said it is taking orders at these levels for 1Q delivery, with the order book expected to close next week. Tons booked for 2Q delivery are $40/st higher.
Western Cornbelt:
The potash market slipped to $475-$500/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the high confirmed at river terminals early in the week. A round of fill program offers, however, dropped pricing to $475-$480/st FOB in the region for tons shipped through March.
Southern Plains:
Potash offers ranged broadly at $465-$510/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, depending on supplier and time of the week, with the lower numbers reported on Jan. 12 after the announcement of Nutrien’s fill program. The Houston market was pegged at the $525/st FOB level at midweek.
New potash reference prices from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., include $515/st for 60% white granular and $525/st for 62% white standard, reflecting a drop of $340-$350/st from the last official postings. Intrepid’s potash prices FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, also moved down $340-$345/st, to $505/st for 60 percent white standard and $515/st for 60 percent white granular.
South Central:
Potash was pegged in a broad range at $460-$525/st FOB in the South Central region, depending on location and time of the week, with the low confirmed at Little Rock, Ark., on July 12 and the high at Memphis on Jan. 10.
Southeast:
The potash market dropped to $535-$540/st FOB Wilmington, down from $605/st FOB in mid-December. Rail-DEL pricing was down even more, with fill tons from Nutrien quoted at the $495/st DEL level at midweek. In the Northeast, Nutrien fill offers fell to $495/st FOB Baltimore, Md., on Jan. 11.
Brazil:
The price range for potash widened to $500-$520/mt CFR, with the lower end reportedly comprised of tons from Belarus. Once that material is gone, sources speculated that prices could move up, and there were already reports circulating that $525/mt CFR could be hit next week. At the same time, bids at $515/mt CFR were being rejected.
Rondonopolis pricing has tightened to $650-$675/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Unlike the portside price, the inland range shifted downward about $15/mt from the previous week.
Potash imports for 2022 were reported at 11.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, downabout 8% from 12.8 million mt in 2021. Canada and Russia were the market’s two largest suppliers with 4.5 million mt and 3.1 million mt, respectively, while Germany, Israel, and Belarus added about 1.1 million mt each.
December imports stood at 511,000 mt, down 52% from 952,000 mt reported in December 2021. Russia accounted for 33% of the import market with 171,000 mt, followed by Canada with 159,000 mt.
Fourth-quarter imports totaled 1.6 million mt, down 56% year-over-year from 3.8 million mt. July-December imports were counted at 4.9 million mt, down 7.8 million mt from second-half 2021.
Sanctions against Belarus affected potash imports in 2022. Tons loading from Belarus totaled 950,000 mt in January-June, compared to just 132,000 mt delivered in July-December. All of the market’s other major suppliers shipped nearly equal volumes in year’s two semesters.
Indonesia:
PT Pupuk Indonesia has reportedly issued a tender for the purchase of 200,000-250,000 mt of standard potash.