US Gulf:
Most sources put NOLA barges in the $370-$375/st FOB range, with bids reported at $360/st FOB. The week-ago range was $375-$380/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash pricing continued to slip in the Eastern Cornbelt. The market was quoted at $430-$465/st FOB in late February, down another $5-$15/st, with the low confirmed at Ottawa, Ill. Cincinnati pricing remained at the $445-$465/st FOB level during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
The potash market slipped to $425-$465/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down from last week’s $445-$470/st, with the St. Louis market pegged at the $425-$430/st FOB level for new offers.
Southern Plains:
Potash offers in the Southern Plains slumped to $430-$440/st FOB Catoosa/Inola and $445/st FOB Houston, down from the previous $450-$455/st FOB range. The last postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $515/st for 60% white granular and $525/st for 62% white standard.
South Central:
Potash was pegged in a tight range at $440-$455/st FOB in the South Central region, below the previous $455-$460/st FOB level.
Southeast:
The potash market dropped to $440-$450/st FOB Wilmington, down from $465-$475/st FOB at last report. Rail-DEL pricing in the Southeast slipped to $470/st for new offers.
Indonesia:
PT Pupuk Indonesia reportedly closed a fresh tender this week for the purchase of approximately 200,000 mt of standard potash, although this could not be confirmed before the Green Markets press time. Pupuk Indonesia abandoned a tender to buy 200,000-250,000 mt earlier this year after failing to secure tons (GM Jan. 27, p. 14; Jan. 13, p. 14).
India:
Despite historically tight potash inventories, the market continues to await the settlement of a new supply contract in India. Echoing other supply-side market participants and analysts, Nutrien Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Mark Thompson told analysts at a Feb. 16 company earnings call that “the impetus is strong” for India to settle a contract in the “relatively near term.”
China:
Nutrien estimated potash inventories in China at about 2.3 million mt during its Feb. 16 earnings call. “Importantly, from a Chinese perspective, the country’s strategic reserves were drawn down by about 1 million mt in 2022,” Thompson said.
Alongside the inventory equation, Nutrien told analysts that China’s 2022 potash production levels of around 7 million mt are likely not repeatable. Consequently, Nutrien also expects the country’s production total to fall in 2023.
Brazil:
Limited trading during Carnival lowered the price of potash to $470-$490/mt CFR. The shift was not unusual, as potash prices have been slipping steadily for a while. Rondonopolis is reported at $600-$625/mt FOB ex-warehouse on limited trading due to the Carnival holiday.
South Korea:
Trade Data Monitor reported January potash imports at 30,000 mt, off 23% from the year-ago 40,000 mt. Canada supplied 69% of the market with 21,000 mt, followed by Laos with 9,000 mt.