US Gulf:
NOLA potash barges remained stable at $390-$400/st FOB.
US Imports:
July-March potash imports softened 13.4% year-over-year, to 8.77 million st from 10.13 million st. March imports were 1.16 million st, down 0.1% from the year-ago 1.17 million st.
July-March imports from Canada were reported at 7.66 million st, followed by 770,027 st from Russia. Israel shipped 264,400 st.
US Exports:
Exports moved up 49.2% in March, to 494,380 st from 331,402 st in March 2022. July-March exports softened 4.4% however, to 2.75 million st from the year-ago 2.88 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash slipped slightly to $475-$500/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati. “Both P and K remain tight, but we are starting to see some weakness as everyone looks to get out from under any inventory they own,” commented one regional contact.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash was pegged at $450-$500/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low end of the range confirmed at St. Louis.
Northern Plains:
Potash remained at $460-$470/st FOB St. Paul, with delivered tons quoted at the $450-$470/st level in the Northern Plains. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines were reported at $462-$472/st, depending on grade.
Northeast:
The potash market in the Northeast was quoted at $465/st FOB Fairless Hills and East Liverpool, with delivered tons pegged at $475-$485/st in Pennsylvania.
Eastern Canada:
Potash pricing in Eastern Canada was steady at the C$740/mt level FOB regional warehouses.
Brazil:
The potash market keeps looking for a floor. Prices were put at $360-$400/mt CFR, with a steady flow of material into the ports keeping downward pressure on prices.
Like some other major Brazil market sellers, ICL already has sold most of its potash for Brazil this year, ICL President and CEO Raviv Zoller told analysts in a May 10 company earnings call. Zoller also said that ICL is not selling potash to Brazil below the Indian contract price of $422/mt CFR.
Meanwhile, with the planting season starting, K+S expected potash deliveries into Brazil to pick up by late May or June. Moreover, the company expects the Brazil market to return to “a normal distance” from the Indian contract price in the third and fourth quarters.
“Given the premium for granular product – which we are delivering into Brazil – there is good reason to believe that in the second half of this year prices in Brazil should be at least $30-$40/mt higher than in India,” K+S Chairman Burkhard Lohr told analysts at a May 9 company earnings call.
The Rondonopolis market was also reported down at $490-$505/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said aggressive bidders continue to push for lower prices, often with some success. There were reports that $475/mt is achievable.
January-April potash imports totaled 3.5 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, off8% from the year-ago 3.5 million mt. April imports were 1.1 million mt, down slightly from the 1.3 million mt in the prior April. Canada led suppliers with 509,000 mt, followed by Russia with 337,000 mt.