US Gulf:
NOLA potash barges remained at $380-$400/st FOB, with no new trades confirmed to test the market. Sources said the industry is awaiting the launch of summer fill programs later this month.
US Imports:
Potash imports for April moved 19.2% higher year-over-year, to 1.34 million st from 1.12 million st. July-April exports softened 10.1%, however, to 10.11 million st from 11.25 million st in the prior July-April.
July-April imports from Canada were noted at 8.91 million st. Russia added 847,567 st, and Israel shipped 274,012 st.
US Exports:
April potash exports moved 5.3% lower, to 383,422 st from 405,024 st in April 2022. July-April totals were down 4.5% year-over-year, slipping to 3.13 million st from 3.28 million st.
Potash slipped to $420-$440/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from $435-$460/st, with the Cincinnati market quoted at $420-$430/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash pricing dropped to $420-$440/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market reported at $420-$425/st FOB for the latest offers.
Southern Plains:
Potash pricing ranged broadly at $430-$470/st FOB Catoosa/Inola in early June, with the Houston market pegged at the $480/st FOB level. The last potash postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $515/st for 60% white granular and $525/st for 62% white standard.
South Central:
South Central potash pricing was reported in the $440-$465/st FOB range in early June, with the low out of river terminals in Kentucky and the high in Arkansas. The Memphis potash market was pegged at the $460/st FOB level at midweek.
Southeast:
Potash pricing dropped to $440/st FOB Wilmington, down from the prior $460/st FOB level, with rail-DEL tons pegged in the $465-$475/st range in the Southeast.
China:
Canpotex on June 6 confirmed that it has agreed to a potash supply contract with China for shipments through Dec. 31, 2023, at $307/mt CFR. The price is down 48% from the $590/mt CFR agreement that Canpotex concluded last year with China, and is also well under the $422/mt CFR contract inked with India in April (GM April 7, p. 14).
“China is an important market for Canpotex, and we’re pleased to reach an agreement with China’s potash buying committee,” said Gordon McKenzie, Canpotex President and CEO. “We look forward to continuing our support of food security in China by providing our customers there with a reliable and stable supply of potash as China’s agriculture sector continues to grow.”
The contract “sends a signal to the market that the potash price bottom is in,” BMO Capital Markets analyst Joel Jackson said in a June 6 note, cited by Bloomberg. He viewed the announcement as “positive,” given market concerns of Chinese buyers deferring contracts this year, considering spring demand was over.
Bangladesh:
Bangladesh is slated to import 180,000 mt of Russian standard potash under a government-to-government deal for the fiscal year running from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024.
Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corp. (BADC) and Prodintorg, a Russian state-owned corporation, signed the deal on June 1 in Moscow, according to the Bangladesh Post, which cited a Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture media release.
Brazil:
The dockside potash price tightened on the upper end, to $330-$350/mt CFR. Sources also reported some aggressive buyers bidding and claiming deals done at $310-$320/mt CFR. While there was no confirmation of these deals, the low prices were not a surprise to sources. The potash market has been seeking a price floor for some time without success.
Sources had hoped the China potash deal would provide a signal that it was time for a market correction. Unfortunately for sellers, the market appears to have taken no notice of the deal, and continues to show price softness.
The Rondonopolis market was pegged at $420-$450/mt FOB ex-warehouse, marking a drop of $30/mt from last week. Sources said the lower end of the range is dominated by material from Belarus.
Brazil potash imports totaled 4.8 million mt January-May, Trade Data Monitor reported, down 9.5% from the year-ago 5.3 million mt. May imports of 1.3 million mt represented a 13% decline from 1.5 million mt received in May 2022. Canada supplied 578,000 mt for the month, followed by Russia with 394,000 mt. Belarus sent 115,000 mt, up markedly from 80,000 mt recorded in May 2022.