US Gulf:
The NOLA potash market was quoted at $310-$317/st FOB for confirmed trades, down from last week’s high of $325/st FOB, with the low reported early in the trading week. Most new business was quoted at the $315-$317/st FOB level as the week progressed.
Potash was quoted at $365-$400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from last week’s $360-$370/st range, depending on location and time of shipment. Michigan warehouses were pegged at $395-$400/st FOB in early August.
Nutrien on July 31 closed its summer fill program for 3Q potash deliveries at $370/st FOB Midwest terminals, and is now taking orders for 4Q potash shipments at a $400/st FOB Midwest reference price. Nutrien reported an “overwhelming response” to the fill program, which was launched on July 21, and said reference prices for 4Q are subject to change at any time.
Western Cornbelt:
The potash market firmed to $365-$400/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the high reflecting new postings from Nutrien for 4Q shipments.
Northern Plains:
Potash pricing firmed to $370-$400/st FOB St. Paul, with delivered tons pegged at the $390-$400/st FOB level for 4Q shipment. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines were quoted at $350-$357/st FOB, depending on grade.
Northeast:
Potash was pegged at the $370-$400/st FOB in the Northeast, with rail-DEL pricing reported in the $390-$400/st range.
Eastern Canada:
Potash pricing in Eastern Canada was quoted at C$545-$585/mt FOB regional warehouses, down from C$740/mt at the end of the spring season, with the low reflecting late July fill offers and the high reported for new post-fill offers for 4Q shipment.
India:
Reports continue to circulate that a revised contract price for potash has been agreed between Uralkali and IPL, the country’s biggest potash importer, to reflect the markedly lower price negotiated in June between international suppliers and China for contract volumes in 2023.
Rumors suggest the updated price could be around $319/mt CFR, and that this is the level IPL is seeking to secure with Canpotex. This could not be confirmed by press time, however, and Canpotex has made no official comment.
Canpotex and its Indian customers negotiated a price of $422/mt CFR in early April for potash supplied through Sept. 30, 2023 (GM April 7, p. 14). This was followed by a June contract between Canpotex and its Chinese customers at $307/mt CFR (GM June 9, p. 15).
Southeast Asia:
Potash prices are edging up, sources said, with limited material from Uzbekistan offered at $330-$340/mt CFR to Southeast Asian buyers.
Product from Belarus was reportedly offered in the low-$300s/mt CFR. Sources attributed the low price to the sanctioned status of the Belarusian material. Buyers are anxious about procuring the cheaper product without getting caught up in sanctions-related paperwork or penalties, however.
Potash is being exported from China, according to reports. Chinese domestic demand for potash is not as great as previously anticipated, sources said, resulting in larger imports than were needed. As a result, sources said small quantities are being offered to Asian buyers at undisclosed prices.
Brazil:
Potash strengthened to $345-$360/mt CFR in Brazil. Despite a surge in demand, large inventories continue to be reported in Brazil, constraining further price growth. Some suppliers are reportedly sold out for the coming months.
Sources noted a wide range in the Rondonopolis market. A low of $470/mt FOB ex-warehouse, flat from last week, was associated with the limited remaining demand for the 2023-2024 soybean crop. The top of the market, reported at $525-$530/mt ex-warehouse, was set through negotiations for forward deliveries.