US Gulf:
NOLA potash remained at $320-$325/st FOB for new business reported during the week, unchanged from last week’s range.
US Imports:
July-November potash imports firmed 14.7% year-over-year, to 5.38 million st from 4.69 million st. November imports were up 14.6%, to 1.18 million st from 1.03 million st. Imports from Canada were reported at 4.73 million st in July-November, while Russia sent 474,592 st and Israel added 133,676 st.
US Exports:
Potash exports softened 18.3% in July-November, to 1.11 million st from the year-ago 1.36 million st. November shipments were 221,905 st, however, up 65.4% from 134,137 st in November 2022. Exports to China totaled 254,154 st for the fertilizer year-to-date, followed by 226,091 st to Malaysia and 208,184 st to Brazil.
Potash was quoted in a broad range at $380-$415/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati market reported at the $380-$390/st FOB level in early January.
Nutrien on Jan. 11 announced a potash winter fill program at a reference price of $385/st FOB Midwest terminals for 1Q delivery, with a $30/st increase for 2Q delivery. Nutrien’s last official posting in October was $420/st FOB Midwest terminals. Fill offers for 1Q delivery in the Michigan market include $385/st FOB for red potash and $393/st FOB for white.
Nutrien said it is taking fill orders until Jan. 19 and reported a positive initial response to the program, with “customers optimistic about a strong spring application season.”
Western Cornbelt:
The potash market was pegged in the $375-$400/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the St. Louis market quoted at $375-$385/st FOB. Nutrien’s winter fill program, announced on Jan. 11, includes $385/st FOB Midwest terminals for 1Q shipment, with a $30/st increase for 2Q delivery.
Southern Plains:
Potash tightened to $385-$395/st FOB Catoosa/Inola for prompt and forward offers. The last postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $445/st for 60% white granular and $453/st for 62% white standard. The company did not confirm if it has a fill program on the table.
South Central:
Potash slipped to $375-$390/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, down from the prior $385-$400/st FOB range, with the low reported at Memphis and the high out of river terminals in Kentucky. Most Arkansas river terminals were pegged at $380-$385/st FOB in early January.
Southeast:
Potash remained at $350-$370/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast in early January. The last rail-DEL business for Canadian tons was reported at $400-$415/st in the Carolinas, depending on grade.
Brazil:
Following last week’s short-lived increase to $295-$310/mt CFR, potash imports softened to $290-$300/mt CFR, a 2.5% decline.
With sources reporting an oversupplied market, Rondonópolis potash prices slipped to $420-$440/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Grower attention remains focused on the 2023/24 soybean harvest, players said, and negotiations for the upcoming corn season have been limited.
Canada and Russia combined for about two-thirds of Brazil’s potash imports in 2023, Trade Data Monitor reported. Of the 13.5 million mt Brazil imported for the year – a 14% increase from the year-ago 11.8 million mt – Canada sent 5 million mt, followed by Russia with 4 million mt.
December imports totaled 1.1 million mt, doubling the 511,000 mt purchased in December 2022. Russia, Canada, and Uzbekistan accounted for a combined 80% of the month’s imports, sending 330,000 mt, 299,000 mt, and 285,000 mt, respectively.