US Gulf:
NOLA potash barges rebounded to $315-$320/st FOB during the week for confirmed trades, up from the prior week’s low of $310/st FOB.
US Imports:
Potash imports firmed 18.9% in July-December, to 6.64 million st from 5.58 million st in the same period of 2022. Imports were up 41.3% in December, to 1.26 million st from the prior year’s 893,375 st.
Imports from Canada were reported at 5.90 million st in July-December, while Russia sent 559,139 st and Israel added 134,035 st.
US Exports:
July-December potash exports softened 1.6%, to 1.60 million st from the year-ago 1.63 million st. December exports were counted at 487,962 st, however, rising 84.8% from 264,008 st one year earlier.
Exports to China totaled 335,125 st for the fertilizer year-to-date, followed by 304,666 st to Brazil and 283,410 st to Malaysia.
Potash slipped to $365-$395/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, grade, and time of shipment, with the low reported at Illinois River terminals on a spot basis. The Cincinnati market remained at the $375-$380/st FOB level for prompt tons.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash was unchanged at $365-$385/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis.
Northern Plains:
Potash was steady at $390-$410/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with delivered tons reported at the $400-$410/st level in the region. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines for post-fill offers were quoted at $390-$395/st FOB, depending on grade.
Northeast:
Potash pricing in the Northeast was pegged at $380-$385/st FOB, depending on location, up from a low of $355/st FOB at last report. Rail-DEL prices remained in the $390-$410/st range in the region.
Eastern Canada:
Potash remained at C$580-$625/mt FOB regional warehouses in Eastern Canada, with the low confirmed for the last reported business for Q1 fill tons and the high for post-fill pricing.
Southeast Asia:
With peak demand for palm plantations still a few weeks away, potash prices were stagnant in the region. Standard MOP saw little market activity following Lunar New Year celebrations, though further price direction is expected from Malaysia when awards are confirmed for a 15,000 mt tender.
No new deals were reported for granular potash, leaving prices unchanged at $345-$355/mt CFR.
Brazil:
Brazil potash prices continued at the week-ago $280-$300/mt CFR level. While sellers continue to look for a floor, bidding was reported around $260/mt CFR, equivalent to some inland prices.
Sources reported a slow market in Rondonópolis due to the Carnival holiday, holding prices steady in the $400-$415/mt FOB ex-warehouse range. With sellers reportedly evaluating bids on a case-by-case basis, solid demand for new volumes could push prices below the CFR-equivalent, sources said.
Due to its favorable barter ratio against soybeans, potash is one of the few products to remain in demand, sources said. The barter market was valued near 20 bags of soybeans per mt of potash during the week, below the five-year average of 22 bags per mt.