US Gulf:
NOLA potash barges slipped to $265-$275/st FOB for the latest offers, down from $270-$275/st FOB last week. While some contacts speculated that deals could likely be had as low as $260/st FOB, no actual business was reported at that level during the week.
Potash was unchanged at $320-$335/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported in Illinois for July-August offers. The Cincinnati market remained at $320-$330/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash continued at $315-$330/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis.
Southern Plains:
Potash was reported at $320-$330/st FOB regional warehouses in the Southern Plains in mid-July. The last reference prices from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., were $460/st for 60% white granular and $468/st for 62% white standard.
South Central:
Warehouse potash pricing in the South Central region slipped to $320-$340/st FOB, down $5/st at the low end of the range, with the Memphis market quoted at the $320-$330/st FOB level at mid-month.
Southeast:
Potash was unchanged at $320-$337/st FOB in the Southeast, depending on grade and location, with rail-DEL pricing reported at the $332-$348/st level in the region.
India:
Canpotex has reportedly inked a standard potash supply contract with India’s Coromandel International Ltd. at $283/mt CFR for tons shipped by Dec. 31, 2024. The price is down $36/mt from last year’s $319/mt CFR contract and follows reports last week that IPL had concluded a new supply contract with an unnamed producer at $279/mt CFR (GM July 12, p. 16).
Potash imports totaled 1 million mt in January-May 2024, Trade Data Monitor reported,down from the year-ago 1.1 million mt. Canada led suppliers with 384,000 mt, followed by Russia with 312,000 mt, Jordan with 110,000 mt, Turkmenistan with 106,000 mt, and Israel with 105,000 mt. Together, the five countries accounted for 98% of India’s potash imports for the period. May imports were 316,000 mt, a 45% decline from 574,000 mt in May 2023.
Northwest Europe:
Potash prices in Northwest Europe were once again flat, signaling seasonally muted demand. Marginally lower prices are reportedly available, according to buyers, but prices were unchanged in the absence of updated offers from suppliers. Granular potash in Northwest Europe remained at €330-€350/mt CIF, with standard potash at €315-€330/mt CIF.
Southeast Asia:
There was limited impact from the recent Chinese and Indian contract settlements in Southeast Asia at the start of the week, with the contract prices perceived as setting a floor for the regional market. However, with the two contract prices quite close to the existing low end in the region of $275/mt CFR, it came as no surprise that the initial market response was muted.
Still, several suppliers expressed confidence that prices in the region would firm following the settlements, which included news this week that Canpotex had contracted with Coromandel at $283/mt CFR, $4/mt higher than IPL’s settlement last week. For now, standard potash prices remained at $275-$290/mt CFR and granular at $335-$345/mt CFR in Southeast Asia.
Brazil:
Potash imports pulled back to $290-$305/mt CFR, off $5/mt from the week-ago high. Buyers are largely covered, sources said, though some interest was reported for September loading.
The Rondonópolis market remained in the $430-$445/mt FOB range, with sources noting soft demand and strong supply. Market players hold significant quantities in storage, reducing the need for new purchases and limiting price increases in the short term.
The supply/demand balance will likely continue to support stable pricing unless there are significant changes in the international or national markets, players said, such as increased buying interest or reduced inventories.