Lower prices on higher volumes should see Nutrien Ltd., Saskatoon, post lower second-quarter results, down 8 percent from the year-ago quarter, according to Bloomberg’s Model Consensus as of Aug. 3, which gives the average of major analyst projections. Nutrien is expected to release earnings Aug. 10. Second-quarter net income is expected to be $788.3 million on net sales of $8.45 billion, versus the year-ago actual $858 million and $8.6 billion, respectively.
Overall, projections are for sales volumes to be up for three major fertilizer categories: Retail Crop Nutrient, Nitrogen, and Phosphates, while being down about 6 percent for Potash. Retail Crop Nutrients are expected to see the largest increase, up almost 11 percent, while those for Nitrogen and Phosphate are expected up 5 percent and 1 percent, respectively. Average prices are expected to be down for all four groups versus year-ago levels.
Analysts are expecting Retail EBITDA to be up 21 percent, to $1.01 billion from the year-ago $836 million. Phosphate EBITDA is expected to be up, with Potash and Nitrogen off.
| Sales Volumes | 2Q-20 Projection | 2Q-19 Actual |
| Retail CN | 6.22 million mt | 5.62 million mt |
| Potash | 3.25 million mt | 3.46 million mt |
| Nitrogen | 3.3 million mt | 3.15 million mt |
| Phosphate | 872,080 mt | 863,000 mt |
| Avg Realized Price $/mt | 2Q-20 Projection | 2Q-19 Actual |
| Retail CN | $384.2 | $467 |
| Potash | $168.7 | $246 |
| Nitrogen | $229.4 | $255 |
| Phosphate | $366.6 | $424 |
| EBITDA | 2Q-20 Projection | 2Q-19 Actual |
| Total Retail | $1.01 billion | $836 million |
| Potash | $316.6 million | $553 million |
| Nitrogen | $375 million | $459 million |
| Phosphate | $45.8 million | $38 million |