Central Florida: Holiday vacations came to an end last week, but business – at least for prompt spot sales of phosphate – continued to lull.
With the gigantic difference in prices that had been going on between the NOLA DAP barge market and Central Florida, traders who normally buy and sell from Central Florida turned to the river system to supply their customers. It was cheaper to buy there and ship by truck rather than buy in Florida.
However, producers responded to the difference and lowered their Central Florida prices by as much as $90/st FOB, which easily brought them in line with the NOLA market.
Actually, by the end of the week, the difference in price was negligible, because last week the NOLA DAP barge market surged to somewhere close to where it had been before the big Christmas drop.
Late last week, producers began giving customers who made sales outside Florida a lower price of $480/st FOB, but were holding the line on sales within the state at $500/st FOB. That probably won’t hurt in-state sales much, because a freeze hit Florida last week and fertilizer sales ground to a halt. Farmers there were more concerned about saving their crops than putting anything on the ground.
However, the Central Florida price was still out of balance with the river. The cost to load ocean-going vessels, ship across the Gulf, and transload phosphate onto NOLA barges runs around $25/st FOB. Prices should reflect that, but do not at this point.
Mosaic’s announcement two weeks ago that it was cutting production during the first quarter by 250,000 tons had the effect of pushing up the price on the river. Mosaic also bought a large number of barges when the price was low, which reduced supply even further.
The Central Florida DAP price range changed radically last week, dropping to $480-$500/st FOB from the previous week’s $540-$575/st FOB range. CF was said to have sold out of tons for January and February. MAP was at a $20/st premium to DAP by Mosaic in Central Florida, about the same difference as from traders. MAP continued to be in short supply. PCS Sales was selling at comparable prices to the market.
U.S. Gulf: What a difference a week or two makes.
Two weeks ago, prices on the river were falling fast. The drop barely slowed when Mosaic began buying a bunch of NOLA DAP barges. It was only after the company announced it was cutting production by 250,000 tons during the first quarter that the market began to tick upward.
At the start of the current reporting period, several deals for NOLA DAP barges were done at $440/st FOB. Prices continued to climb as the week went on. By the end of the week, the DAP barge price was up some $40/st from the previous week’s high. The highest prices were obtained at the very end of the reporting period.
Speculation was that the price could reach as high as $500/st FOB in the near term, and would likely hold around the level. If not, imports would begin to come in and drive the price back down. Still, it could take a few weeks or more for imported product to arrive, and prices could still rise before that happened.
Late last week, terminal prices were still down, but most said they planned to hike the price in order to account for higher NOLA DAP barge costs. Most certainly, the cost from terminals will be higher this week, but how much will depend on how high the barge price gets.
Sources said farmers in parts of the Midwest were in their fields putting down fertilizers in advance of their spring planting. The weather in most of the Midwest has been warmer than normal, which allowed work to start. Farmers have good reason to buy fertilizer and get it on the ground as soon as possible. Crop prices continued to be excellent, and the math works in their favor.
Corn future prices were down just