Central Florida: A couple of weeks ago, CF Industries told its customers that it would have less phosphate available during February. Last week it announced that it had begun a turnaround at its Plant City processing plant this quarter, rather than in May as originally scheduled.
It really didn’t make much difference. There was no better time to do maintenance work and slow down production, because the market hardly even noticed.
Areas of the country that are normally served from Central Florida were too wet to get anything done. The weather has been warmer than normal this year, but it makes little difference under the circumstances. Even the export market has fallen into the doldrums.
Sources said the CF curtailment resulted in about a 50 percent cutback during the turnaround, or about 2,500 st/day. Sources also said the facility was likely to return to full production sometime this week.
Florida was expected to begin buying fertilizers again now that a cold snap has passed. The chilly weather lasted only a few days, however, and the weather returned to warmer-than-normal immediately afterward.
The Central Florida DAP price continued last week at a flat $480/st FOB. Both Mosaic and CF were posted at the $480/st FOB mark, but a firm offer from a large buyer might be able to get a better deal. MAP was listed at a $20/st premium to DAP by Mosaic in Central Florida, about the same difference as from traders. MAP was in short supply.
PCS Sales was selling at prices comparable to the market.
U.S. Gulf: First, the good news. The drought in West Texas has eased and the area has gotten enough rain to sustain crops, at least for awhile. Also, much of the South was ready to get started with the spring season.
The bad news was that none of that will have a major impact on phosphate sales, because corn is not the primary crop in those areas.
In some areas of the Western Cornbelt, ground preparation could be underway again very shortly, especially where the ground was frozen and farmers could get into their fields. On the other hand, the Mississippi River was still closed north of St. Louis – not because it is frozen or dangerous, but because the Army Corps of Engineers was doing maintenance on Lock 25.
Still, dealers were not likely to start ordering phosphate in any quantities until they can see some space on the floor of their bins. With the market weak, dealers fear the price could drop and they would get stuck with higher-priced product.
Nevertheless, the overwhelming consensus is that it will be a very good spring, based on the number of acres for corn to be planted and the price of corn.
New supplies of Russian MAP were expected to become available this week, and that should have the effect of reducing the differential between DAP and MAP, which had increased to as much as $50/st FOB. Last week, it was down to $30-$40/st FOB.
Prices for corn futures were lower last week compared to the previous week, falling from $5.69/bushel to $5.6475/bushel for December 2012. The corn price for December 2013 was $5.5125/bushel, up from $5.5425/bushel the previous reporting period. Soybeans for November 2012 increased to $12.58/bushel from $12.4375/bushel the previous week, and beans for November 2013 were down at $12.00/bushel from $12.0875/bushel the previous week. Wheat for July 2012 went down to $6.4825 from $6.6875/bushel a week earlier. Wheat for July 2013 was listed at $7.155/bushel last week, down from $7.305/bushel a week earlier.
Sales continued to be depressed last week, and few NOLA DAP or MAP barge transactions occurred. A few sales at the end of the reporting period set the bottom of the range, which was an indication of the market’s direction.
The NOLA DAP barge price range for the week was $432-$437/st FOB, below the pre