Central Florida: Good weather in the Northeast and Eastern Cornbelt brought farmers out into their fields, and traders reported requests to move up the delivery dates for all fertilizers.
Phosphate was moving from terminals and dealer warehouses, and it won’t be much longer before that is reflected in railcar orders from Central Florida.
Sales into the Southeast have been up during the past two weeks, and that was spreading into the southern areas of the Northeast last week. Logistics problems will more than likely follow the long drought, as dealers begin to reorder to meet the rush that has been brought on by an early spring.
Rain has been a problem in the Eastern Cornbelt, but the area was beginning to dry last week and fieldwork was getting underway.
DAP and MAP inventories were up 84,000 tons, and were 15 percent higher than the five-year average, despite curtailed operations. It appears the spring season will soon lower those numbers.
Central Florida DAP was unchanged last week at $460-$470/st FOB. CF Industries was posted at the $465/st FOB mark, and Mosaic was offering tons in the $460-$470/st FOB range, depending on quantity. MAP remained in tight supply, and was listed at a $20/st premium to DAP by Mosaic in Central Florida, about the same difference as from traders.
PCS Sales was selling at prices comparable to the market.
U.S. Gulf: The phosphate market was getting little attention last week, and was being overshadowed by exploding urea pricing. However, both products were more scarce than they should be, considering the spring season has arrived earlier than usual this year.
Do not be surprised if the phosphate market takes big strides during the next few weeks, because the amount of product on the river was limited, even with slack demand.
One source said he was told Mosaic had only seven floating NOLA DAP barges late last week, and the company is normally the biggest supplier. However, a source said the company was sending a vessel cross-Gulf, but it was not clear whether it was a normal, scheduled move or additional.
The export market has been the phosphate industry’s hedge against a slow domestic market, but export prices appeared to be on the wane and the domestic market was just beginning to awaken after its winter nap.
Russian product was on the scene last week, and was selling at as much as a $20/st discount to domestic phosphate. Despite its quality, it does not command the respect or price of domestically produced phosphate. However, it does affect the price range for DAP and MAP.
Sources reported high activity in the Southern Plains, and the Northern Plains was picking up speed as fieldwork in the Dakotas and Minnesota was just getting underway. As business was picking up at terminals last week, prices were beginning to creep up.
Despite bumps here and there, crop prices have been very good and farmers will need and want as much fertilizer as possible. That is a given. The season will be early this year, which is another given. And phosphate prices? Take a guess.
Crop prices were down a small amount last week from the previous week. Prices for corn futures fell from $5.7025/bushel the previous week to $5.5625/bushel last week for December 2012. The corn price for December 2013 was $5.48/bushel, down from $5.725/bushel the previous reporting period. Soybeans for November 2012 moved down to $13.135/bushel from $13.225/bushel the past week, and beans for November 2013 decreased to $12.2325/bushel from $12.40/bushel a week earlier. Wheat for July 2012 fell to $6.5675/bushel from $6.6725/bushel the week before, and wheat for July 2013 was listed at $7.0675/bushel last week, down from $7.1875/bushel previously.
Based on actual transactions, the NOLA DAP barge price range for the week was $435-$455/st