Central Florida: With the spring season over and done, producers turned their attention to the export market. With an eye toward an early corn harvest this year, prices by one were posted higher.
Inventories in Central Florida were low last week and have been for some time, and Mosaic used the opportunity to increase its price for DAP by $20/st FOB. It was not clear whether CF Industries would follow along, but that seemed likely. PCS Sales also had tight inventories, but was keeping up with contractual requirements.
Meanwhile, dealers were sitting tight and making no moves to build supplies in the belief that prices will stay flat or rise very little. That could be a mistake, however, considering the level of inventories and the recent move by Mosaic to hike prices. The Central Florida market was trailing both the NOLA DAP barge market and exports.
The Central Florida DAP price range was quoted at $480-$500/st FOB. CF Industries’ posted price was at the $480/st FOB mark, and Mosaic moved its price up to $500/st FOB. MAP continued to sell at a $20/st premium to DAP in Central Florida, about the same difference as from traders. PCS Sales, which produces MAP at its White Springs facility in North Florida, was selling at prices comparable to the market.
U.S. Gulf: Mississippi Phosphates was in the process of bringing its plant back online late last week. Miss Phos was getting its acid plants, which were where the explosions occurred, up and running, but the phosphate granulation plant will take a bit longer.
Not much of Miss Phos’ output was going into the domestic market during the past month, even before the accidents, and that will probably be the case once everything is back to normal. The export market was still more profitable than the NOLA river market.
Dealers were still waiting and hoping their bins would be empty, or close to it, before they need to buy again. Predictions are that the corn crop will be harvested earlier than normal this year, which could mean farmers will have more of an opportunity to put down phosphates before Old Man Winter takes a seat at the table. The problem is that they will probably have to pay more than they would if dealers had already placed their orders for summer and fall.
Mosaic, which has been mainly using its output from Donaldsonville to fill contracts and for export, set a new price for DAP at $520/st FOB, which was higher than the market for prompt NOLA DAP barges last week.
Many in the industry believe phosphates will begin to take off again during or shortly after the Southwestern Fertilizer Conference in San Antonio July 14-18, but some may make moves before that time. Considering the lack of inventory and demand from the export market, prices may move much higher than anticipated, and possibly sooner.
Some parched areas of the Midwest got some moisture last week and that should help crops, but it also had the effect of dropping corn prices. During the first two days of last week, corn prices fell about $0.25/bushel.
By late last week, corn, soybean, and wheat prices were all down. Prices for 2012 corn futures fell from $5.35/bushel the previous week to $5.15/bushel for December. The corn price for December 2013 was $5.2275/bushel, decreasing from $5.40/bushel the previous reporting period. For November 2012, soybeans moved down to $13.1275/bushel from $13.39/bushel the previous week, and soybeans for November 2013 decreased to $11.835/bushel from $12.10/bushel a week earlier. Wheat for July 2012 fell to $6.2175/bushel from $6.425/bushel the week before, and wheat for July 2013 was listed at $6.9975/bushel last week, down from $7.27/bushel the previous week. Wheat for July 2014 was posted at $7.17/bushel.
The prompt NOLA DAP barge price range for the week moved to $500-$508/st FOB from the previous week