Central Florida: Trading on the Central Florida phosphate market remained in a holding pattern last week. Sources fingered the late corn harvest as a primary drag on commerce. A stubborn run of cold and wet conditions caused widespread delays again last week, which in turn stalled the application of fall fertilizer.
Rail-loaded DAP was steady at $435/st FOB, while material shipped by truck commanded a premium of about $5/st FOB. MAP remained difficult or impossible to come by, but remained on par with Mosaic’s $455/st FOB posted price. Truck prices for MAP were expected to run $460/st FOB.
Phosphate availability in the region continued to be “extremely limited,” with producers reportedly prioritizing October export commitments over local spot demand.
U.S. Gulf: The NOLA barge market spent another week in the doldrums, sources said. Confirmed transactions were scarce, and observers pointed to low NOLA inventory as one possible factor. Demand wasn’t all that high either, according to sources, and the lack of activity saw prices drifting lower.
Most industry watchers put recent transactions in a range of $405-$415/st FOB, down from $420-$430/st FOB the previous week. A vocal minority believed DAP had held its value, calling the high end of the market closer to $425/st FOB. Transactions at that level went unconfirmed, however.
Traders were divided on the price of open-origin DAP. Some believed the product – most often sourced from Chinese producers in the current season – had essentially achieved price parity with non-Chinese tons. Others disagreed, however, quoting the market around $395-$400/st FOB and claiming the imported material was still discounted by a few dollars compared to domestic.
Producers cited persistent upriver demand, particularly in the Arkansas and Oklahoma markets, with barge transactions reported in a NOLA-equivalent range of $440-$455/st FOB.
The January paper market was called $388-$395/st FOB, with the higher end of the range offered later in the week.
Overall supply was questioned by a number of industry players, who interpreted the lax activity of the previous two weeks as sign of a potential inventory shortfall. “The volume of trades compared to two weeks ago is night and day,” one source said.
“Producers are very reluctant to drop prices and traders can’t hold positions very long, so the fact that we’re seeing so few transactions leads me to believe there just isn’t much inventory left at NOLA,” the source continued. “I believe that if a fellow had spot tons loaded and available at NOLA, he’d be able to sell it, no problem.”
Bidders in the low $400s/st were present in the market, though they found few – if any – takers. Some were reportedly trying to leverage the continued presence of cheaper Chinese DAP into reduced prices on domestic product. One source noted that although Chinese-sourced DAP has traditionally been inferior in quality to domestically produced product, this season’s Chinese offerings are “surprisingly not bad.” As a result, some bidders have reportedly argued for a tighter spread than in past season.
The delayed corn harvest also remained a source of consternation. Slowed by persistent cold and wet weather, USDA estimated that just 24 percent of corn crop had been harvested nationally as of Oct. 12, well behind the five-year average of 43 percent.
Some saw the potential for an energized barge market, however, particularly if a window of favorable weather results in a buying push for the fall application season.
The NOLA barge market was quoted in a range of $405-$415/st FOB for DAP, down from the previous week’s $420-$430/st FOB. Sources quoted the last done MAP bus