Central Florida: Seasonal slowness was the name of the game in Central Florida last week. “Everyone is about filled up with everything, and there’s little activity in the fields,” one trader remarked. “It’s kind of a quiet time.”
One exception was the Florida agricultural region itself, which traditionally heats up in February. “Feb. 1 in Florida is like April 1 in the Midwest,” one industry veteran said. “Not a lot of material moves there, but there’s some.”
Producers were still reported to be tight in the region through April, with export price pressure easily outcompeting Central Florida bidders. Producers would make enough material available for Florida end users, sources said, but phosphate headed out of the state was considerably harder to come by.
“Single railcars going north are the tight ones,” one contact maintained, adding that traders would likely fill orders from river terminals and import locations if material proves unavailable within the state.
Sources quoted the Central Florida DAP market at $430-$440/st FOB, unchanged from the previous week, with truck sales making up the top of the range. MAP was said to maintain a roughly $20/st premium to DAP.
U.S. Gulf: The NOLA barge market strengthened slightly after taking a breather in the previous week. Trading volumes remained on the low side, but prices tipped slightly higher to a range of $442-$447/st FOB.
Offers for nearby domestic material were primarily quoted in the $445-$450/st FOB range, though some were content to take profit a couple dollars lower. “There are a few long guys offering behind the net, below $445/st FOB,” one trader said.
Confirmed MAP trades came in lower for the week at $442-$446/st FOB.
Announced imports remained minimal, though sources reported that quantities of Russian material had been arriving recently, hitching rides on a number of urea import vessels.
Additionally, the year’s first Chinese phosphate vessel was confirmed last week, due to arrive in early March. Sources previously speculated that the new phosphate export tax at China would make such a deal tenable only when the barge price hit $445-$450/st FOB.
A number of analysts predicted spring corn plantings to drop by 4-5 million acres from fall estimates, landing at around 87-88 million acres. Sources were divided on the potential effect of the reduced acreage on the spring phosphate season. Some found solace in last year’s record yields, arguing that the greater-than-average nutrient loss will force greater amounts of fertilizer to be applied per acre, effectively compensating for the reduced overall acreage.
Others simply expected reduced application of both phosphate and potash for spring.
Market sentiment appeared to trend bullish overall, however, despite the current dearth of volume traded. “There’s not a lot of negativity in the market right now,” one source said, adding that current transactions are mostly trader-to-trader, evidence of a relatively lean market that is likely to provide continued support through the short term.
The NOLA DAP market firmed to a range of $442-$447/st FOB, up from $442-$443/st FOB the week before. MAP transactions were quoted at $442-$446/st FOB, down from $445-$450/st FOB at last report.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was reported in a broader range at $470-$490/st FOB regional warehouses in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low at Cincinnati and the upper end FOB Maumee. MAP was $15-$20/st higher than DAP, depending on location.
10-34-0 remained at $540-$550/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt: DAP was pegged at $470-$480/st FOB warehouses in the Western