Central Florida: Spiking demand from the Southeast states propped up prices in Central Florida last week.
Truck sales drove the market, pushing rates to $445-$450st FOB, sources said. Railcars were expected to lag the truck market by $5/st or so, and “serious rail constraints” necessitated a greater-than-average reliance on truck-loaded offerings. The logistics issues likely pushed new business toward the higher end of the range by the end of the week, one source speculated.
New rail orders would load no earlier than mid-March, sources reported.
Central Florida DAP was quoted in a range of $440-$450/st FOB, an increase from the previous week’s $435-$445/st FOB. MAP continued to command a $20/st FOB premium to DAP.
U.S. Gulf: Cold weather froze the NOLA barge market last week, stifling terminal demand and diminishing activity on the river. Volume traded was lower overall, but DAP prices nevertheless firmed to a range of $443-$449/st FOB. Others claimed DAP could be had for as little as $440/st FOB, though no trades could be confirmed at that price.
Sources blamed the slowdown on cold weather in the Mid-South. Southern phosphate application that began earlier in February reportedly ground to a halt, and lingering cold-weather conditions in the North and Midwest kept farmers from beginning early application.
Snug supply continued to support prices, observers noted. Producers offered tons for second-half March and April at $450-$455/st FOB, but nearby availability was primarily trader-offered.
Concern remained regarding the timing of Moroccan imports that were rumored to be on the horizon. Market sources said they expected a pair of vessels totaling 160,000 mt to arrive for NOLA discharge in the near future, but precisely when the product materializes could affect the market in widely varying ways.
If the weather has warmed to the point of allowing widespread fieldwork, the inbound cargo would be expected to simply balance the market and meet demand, observers said. Should it arrive before the weather relents and fields have thawed, however, then prices will likely tumble.
Additionally, a third Panamax vessel was rumored to be in port at Morocco and destined for the U.S., but it was unknown whether the cargo would be offered at NOLA or discharged elsewhere.
One contact mentioned that a drop in freight prices for Panamax-sized vessels available for NOLA discharge could also potentially cloud the import landscape. “Vessels from China, Mexico, Morocco – they’re all way down right now,” he said. “You could get a (Panamax vessel) from Morocco for like $10/t.” Some speculated as well that the freight savings could incentivize importers to move on transactions sooner rather than later.
A number of sources had previously speculated that freights could see an increase following the institution of low-sulfur fuel surcharges in Sulfur Emission Control Area (ECA) zones starting Jan 1. However, after several weeks of operating within the updated rules, sources universally agreed that the surcharges have had no discernible effect on the import market.
The NOLA barge market firmed to a range of $443-$449/st FOB, up from the previous week’s $440-$447/st FOB. MAP was $445-$448/st FOB, unchanged from the week before.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was quoted at $480-$490/st FOB regional warehouses in the Eastern Cornbelt, up slightly from last report. MAP was $5-$15/st higher than DAP, depending on location, with the low end of the MAP range pegged at $485/st FOB Cincinnati.
10-34-0 was steady at $540-$550/st FOB for limited tons in the region. Several sources reported that they were “waiting on acid cars,” fueling speculation about continued tight 10-34-0 supplies