Central Florida: The Central Florida truck market was called flat for the week. Truck-loaded DAP continued to be priced at $370/st FOB, sources said, with MAP commanding an additional $10-$15/st.
U.S. Gulf: Another week into the spring fertilizer season brought firmer NOLA barge pricing. Prompt DAP was quoted in a range of $335-$350/st FOB, while MAP was called $345-$365/st FOB.
Imported material comprised the low end of the DAP and MAP ranges, with sales from domestic producers occupying the top rung. Some described MAP trading as high as $370-$372/st FOB, but the transactions went unconfirmed.
Many traced the market’s ongoing rise to delayed imports. Loading issues at a Moroccan port were believed to have slowed vessels originally slated for first-half March arrival. The result, sources contended, was a demand increase in excess of the normal spring bump.
“(The price increase is) because guys are waiting on OCP,” one contact argued. “There were loading difficulties at port. People got caught when the tons didn’t come, and they had to pay (domestic producers’) prices.”
The market expected a number of import vessels for March arrival, although exactly when they were due at NOLA inspired considerable debate. Some believed the vessels had been pushed back to the end of March for the most part, possibly slipping into early April. Others expected the arrivals to begin as soon as March 11, starting with a EuroChem cargo.
All in all, seven import cargoes were reported to be due in March or early April, including three MAP-heavy cargoes from EuroChem, one PhosAgro vessel carrying 35,000 mt of DAP and MAP, and either two or three Panamax ships from OCP.
“The vessels are all arriving in a two-week window, and all but one of them are already on the water,” said one source. The lone exception was said to be an OCP vessel loading on March 11.
Absent from the expected lineup were cargoes of Chinese origin. “There have been rumors that a Chinese load is coming, but I haven’t seen anything,” said one trader. “The FOB numbers from China just haven’t made sense.” He noted that if something did come, it would have to be a parked cargo, probably combined with urea. “I just don’t know why anyone would bring one in,” he said.
The NOLA DAP market was quoted in a range of $335-$350/st FOB, up from $330-$345/st FOB at last report. MAP had firmed as well, to $345-$365/st FOB from the previous week’s $340-$360/st FOB range.
U.S. Imports: Finished phosphate imports were up in January, with DAP at 38,338 st from the year-ago 2,426 st, and MAP/Other at 27,433 st versus 10,303 st, respectively. July-January was down, with DAP at 332,653 st from 489,041 st, and MAP/Other at 487,546 st from 890,356 st.
YTD imports from China are down, with DAP imports at 169,700 st versus the year-ago 418,270 st, and MAP/Other at 92,815 st versus 267,761 st.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP pricing continued to firm in the Eastern Cornbelt. Sources quoted the low end of the regional market at $378-$385/st FOB Cincinnati and $380/st FOB Ottawa, with the upper end of the regional range at $390/st FOB inland warehouses.
The MAP market was pegged at $390-$410/st FOB in the region, up another $10-$20/st from last report, with reports of very tight inventories at Cincinnati. The Ottawa MAP market was pegged solidly at the $395/st FOB level last week.
The 10-34-0 market remained at $510/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt: Phosphate prices continued to firm, with the DAP market now quoted at $380-$390/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up another $10/st from last report.
MAP was quoted in a broader range at $400-$420/st FOB, with the upper end reported in the Iowa market late in the week. Sources talked of tight supplies for both products, but particularly for MAP. “Literally as fast as we unload a barge, they haul it back out again,” said one regional contact.
10-34-0 remained at $475-$500/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end in Iowa and Missouri.
Northern Plains: DAP pricing was quoted at $380-$385/st FOB the Twin Cities, up $15/st or more from mid-February pricing levels. The regional MAP market was pegged at $390-$435/st FOB, with the Twin Cities market reported in the $390-$400/st FOB range and the upper end out of spot warehouse locations in North Dakota.
The 10-34-0 market was pegged at $490/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with delivered prompt tons quoted in the $505/st range in central North Dakota.
Agrium’s March 1 phosphoric acid postings were unchanged from February levels, with rail-DEL SPA and MGA referenced at $1,050/st of P2O5 in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and $1,065/st of P2O5 in the Dakotas.
Northeast: MAP in the Northeast was reportedly priced at $395/st for prompt tons FOB Fairless and East Liverpool, with prepay being quoted roughly $5/st higher at East Liverpool. Those levels reflect a $10/st increase from last report.
DAP was $5/st lower than MAP, where available, with the East Liverpool market quoted at $390/st FOB for prompt and $395/st FOB for prepay.
10-34-0 was reported at $515/st FOB out of terminals in upstate New York.
Eastern Canada: The MAP pricing range in Eastern Canada had reportedly broadened to $660-$680/mt FOB, depending on location.
U.S. Export: Mosaic announced sales of DAP and MicroEssentials totaling 33,000 mt into various Latin American markets last week. The cargoes were expected to ship in March or April and carried a DAP price of $360/mt FOB.
Sources quoted the Gulf export market at $360/mt FOB for the week, unchanged from the previous report.
Phosphoric acid sold to India carried a first-quarter contract price of $715/mt CFR, $95/mt below the second-half 2015 price of $810/mt CFR.
Brazil: Brazil MAP market observers described continued sales in the $360-$365/mt CFR range last week. “There’s a little life to Brazil,” said one contact. “It seems they’ve got a little more movement.”
The market was quoted at $360-$365/mt CFR, unchanged from the week before. New offers were described in the $370-$375/mt CFR range.
Saudi Arabia: Last-done on the Saudi Arabian DAP market was a $345/mt CFR cargo sold into India. The deal was believed to net back $335-$340/mt FOB to the seller.
Rumors described an additional sale from Saudi Arabia last week, possibly facilitated by a trader, although numerous sources were unable to confirm the transaction.
China: Sales of DAP were reported this week, but not at levels to the producers’ liking.
Sources said the price for DAP was at $345-$350/mt FOB, with all the talk on the lower end of the range. One trader said getting a $345/mt FOB deal is much easier now than just a few weeks ago. Getting $340/mt FOB could be done but would take some work, and only if the cargo size and timing is right.
A South Korean buyer reportedly tried to secure a prompt cargo of 6,000 mt at $340/mt FOB, but was told the quantity was too small to consider such a drastic drop in the price.
At the same time, a couple of trading houses have reportedly been talking about a larger quantity being sold to Pakistan at $340/mt FOB. The deal makes sense after Pakistan bought a cargo from Saudi Arabia at $360/mt CFR early last month.
Besides aggressive buyers, growing inventories in the Chinese warehouses are helping push prices lower. The warehouse reserves are building, partly because domestic demand is off and international purchasers are not willing to buy large quantities in a bear market.
India: Sources report that Indian DAP stockpiles are strong enough to allow buyers a chance to take it easy and not rush to make a purchase.
The last bit of business done into India last month showed a price of $345/mt CFR from the Middle East. Estimating the price of that deal back to China would put it below the current $340/mt FOB price under discussion.
Russian suppliers are reportedly in talks with Indian buyers. An impasse appears to be happening at the price. The Russians are said to have no desire to accept anything less than $350/mt CFR – a move backed up by their Arab competitors.
One source said the Indians may have to move a bit on the talks, as will the Russians. The best guess for a final deal is expected in the upper-$340s/mt FOB.
Lithuania: EuroChem’s Lifosa operation will begin a scheduled 15-20 day turnaround at the end of March/beginning of April.
Europe: EuroChem is reported to be asking $380-$390/mt FOB for DAP for European destinations, while Moroccan DAP is reportedly being offered at around $380/mt FOB.
Tunisia: The country’s phosphate rock production has reached 14,000 mt/d, despite road and rail blockades at several mining sites by protestors since January. This level is deemed “acceptable,” according to the country’s new Minister of Energy and Mining, Mongi Marzouk, in an interview last week with the Tunisian News Agency.
State-run producer Compagnie des Phosphates de Gafsa (CPG) reported commercial production at no more than 361,000 mt between Jan. 1 and Feb. 6 (GM Feb. 12, p. 9). Marzouk believes Tunisia will be able to produce some 4 million mt of phosphate rock this year, but will not be able to achieve an earlier forecast of 6 million mt (GM Dec. 1, 2015).
Tunisia produced 3.2 million mt of rock last year. Production at sister company GCT’s downstream plants is reported to be running at around 70 percent of capacity.