Central Florida: Central Florida sellers reported a softer market last week. Sales of truck-loaded DAP were quoted in the $360-$365/st FOB range, a decline from $370/st FOB at last report.
MAP was reported at a $10-$15/st FOB premium to DAP, placing that product in the $370-$380/st FOB range, down from $380-$385/st FOB the week before.
U.S. Gulf: Facing down a number of vessels poised for imminent arrival at NOLA, phosphate prices struggled for direction last week. “DAP is quite funky,” said one contact.
Open origin DAP was quoted at $327/st FOB on March 14 before tumbling to $315/st FOB on March 16, down from the previous week’s bids of $335/st FOB. The trades were all said to have been marketed as either “open origin” or “open origin, non-Chinese,” although many market players speculated that the tons were of either Russian or Moroccan origin.
“Non-Chinese” barges were also quoted as high as $335/st FOB for the week, while domestic producers announced DAP barges at $350-$355/st FOB on the high side of the range.
The wide range prompted debate regarding the actual state of the market. Some accepted the spread as representing a broad range of demand. “On phosphates, we’re seeing a huge spread between open origin and domestic,” said one trader. “We have bought the high ends on both.”
Others, however, said the market could only be heading downward. “(Why would) someone pay $355/st for a (domestic) barge when they can buy Russian or OCP for $40/st less?” argued one market player. “I can’t imagine there is much liquidity at that level,” added another source.
As many as seven import cargoes were expected before late March or early April, including material from EuroChem, PhosAgro, and OCP. No new Chinese cargoes were anticipated for spring, although sources said Chinese offer levels continued to close the gap on NOLA. “I’m hearing you can get Chinese DAP for $340/st now,” said one contact.
Open origin MAP fell in concert with DAP, with prices called as low as $325/st FOB on March 17. Domestic sales were confirmed at $372/st FOB.
Meanwhile, April DAP paper was called in the $321-
$326/st FOB range, with May paper quoted at $315-
$320/st FOB.
The NOLA DAP barge market was reported in a wide range of $315-$355/st FOB, a change from $335-$350/st FOB at last report. MAP was quoted at $325-$372/st FOB, compared with $345-$365/st FOB the week before.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was pegged at $380-$390/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with MAP quoted in the $390-$410/st FOB range for limited tons in the region. One Illinois source pegged the spot MAP market at the $405/st FOB level in his trade area last week.
The 10-34-0 market remained at $510/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt: DAP pricing was firm at $380-
$390/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP pegged at
$400-$420/st FOB and in tight supply in the region.
10-34-0 was steady at $475-$500/st FOB in the region, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end in Iowa and Missouri.
Southern Plains: DAP pricing was quoted in a broad range at $380-$400/st FOB Catoosa, with tons described as “limited but available.” MAP was in very tight supply at the port, with sources quoting the spot market as high as $415-$420/st
FOB for limited tons, up a full $15-$20/st from last report.
10-34-0 was pegged at $470-$475/st FOB in the Southern Plains, down some $5-$10/st from last report.
Agrium’s March 1 phosphoric acid postings were unchanged from February levels, with rail-DEL SPA and MGA referenced at $1,050/st of P2O5 in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Kansas; and $1,065/st of P2O5 in North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas.
South Central: DAP was reported at $375-$380/st FOB out of warehouses in the South Central region, up some $10-$20/st from three week earlier, depending on location. Sources pegged the Memphis DAP market firmly at the $375/st FOB level for new sales last week.
TSP was pegged at $335-$340/st FOB regional terminals.
Southeast: The Aurora, N.C., DAP market remained at $390-$400/st FOB for new business.
U.S. Export: Mosaic announced sales of DAP and MAP into Latin America last week. The transactions totaled 7,000 mt and were bound for “various markets,” sources said. The cargoes carried a $360/mt FOB Tampa price for DAP and were slated to ship in April.
The Gulf export market remained unchanged at $360/mt FOB.
The first-quarter price of phosphoric acid sold to India was $715/mt CFR, down $95/mt from $810/mt CFR in second-half 2015.
Brazil: Sources described a quiet Brazil MAP market. “We haven’t heard anything getting done in Brazil this week,” said one trader. Last-done was quoted in the $360-$365/mt CFR range.
Saudi Arabia: A recent Saudi Arabian DAP transaction was quoted in the $335-$340/mt FOB range.
China: Sources reported prices all over the board. One trader quoted prices in the low-$330s/mt FOB, while another called the market in the mid-$340s/mt FOB. Where there is agreement is in the weak nature of the DAP market.
Sources said large stockpiles of DAP in India are hindering efforts by Chinese producers to get prices moving up on large sales. Even though Indian buyers are hesitant to commit to any purchases until the new fiscal year starts on April 1, sources said their pricing ideas are closer to $330/mt FOB.
Sources reported that some MAP business with Brazil ran into a snafu when Chinese producers were not happy with the price negotiated. Sources said bids for Chinese MAP are in the $280s/mt FOB, with producers asking $290/mt FOB. For now, producers say there is enough strength in the domestic market that they don’t have to lower their prices.
India: Producers are trying to close some late-March deals with Indian buyers before the new subsidy regime takes effect April 1. One trader said the producers are really hoping to seal their deals before prices slip.
India already has about 2.5 million tons of DAP on hand. Sources have said the country is in no rush to buy more. This situation, however, has not stopped Ma’aden and Chinese producers from offering material at a $345/mt FOB China equivalent price.
The potential buyers are less than enthusiastic about that price, however. They point to other possible deals in the $330s/mt FOB.
India will have to look at DAP purchases soon, said one trader, because phos acid talks have stalled with a $60-$80/mt difference between the buyers and sellers. OCP is reportedly offering at $610/mt CFR, while the bids are at $670-$690/mt CFR.