Central Florida: Central Florida DAP sales were reported in the $360-$365/st FOB range for truck-loaded material, sellers said, unmoved from the previous week. MAP commanded an additional $10-$15/mt FOB over DAP.
U.S. Gulf: Trading on the NOLA DAP market largely moved sideways for the week, with sales reported in the $320-$355/st FOB range.
Sales of prompt Russian DAP were quoted as low as $320/st FOB on March 18, with new offers cited in the $323-$325/st FOB range on March 23.
DAP marketed as open origin was reported in the $325-$330/st FOB range, while a number of domestic barge sales were announced in the $350-$355/st FOB range between March 18-22.
Traders called April DAP paper unchanged at $321- $326/st FOB. May paper also remained flat at $315-$320/st FOB.
Prompt MAP was said to carry a $10-$15/st FOB premium over DAP, with sales quoted down to $331.50/st FOB. No domestic MAP sales were reported for the week.
Phosphate players voiced disagreement on where the market was headed. Some argued prices would move lower in the weeks ahead, spurred by the arrival of expected imports from PhosAgro, EuroChem, and OCP. Other pointed to a slight lag in spring application so far this season, arguing that the spring peak was still to come, especially for Northern buyers.
“(Upper River) demand hasn’t picked up yet,” said one source. “I believe we still have 2-3 weeks before we really get going.”
The NOLA spot market was called $320-$355/st FOB for DAP, up from $315-$355/st FOB at last report. MAP was $331.50-$345/st FOB NOLA, compared with a broad range of $325-$372/st FOB the week before.
Eastern Cornbelt: DAP remained at $380-$390/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with MAP quoted in the $390-$410/st FOB range for limited tons.
The 10-34-0 market was steady at $510/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt: DAP pricing continued to be quoted at $380-$390/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP pegged at $400-$410/st FOB and in tight supply in the region. “MAP is tight, but we’ve had good luck keeping guys going,” said one regional contact. An Iowa source quoted delivered MAP at the $425/st level in his location.
10-34-0 was pegged in a broad range at $475-$510/st FOB in the region, with the low in Nebraska and the upper end in Missouri.
California: MAP remained at $480-$485/st FOB or DEL in California. The TSP (0-45-0) market was steady as well at $420/st FOB French Camp, with 16-20-0 unchanged at $395-$407/st FOB in California.
Simplot’s phos acid postings were unchanged at $10.65/unit rail-DEL in California for both SPA and MGA, with MGA also referenced at the $10.85/unit level FOB Lathrop. Agrium remained at $1,070/st of P2O5 for rail-DEL SPA and MGA in California and Arizona. No phos acid pricing changes were planned for April.
The 10-34-0 market was steady at $484-$489/st FOB in California, with 11-37-0 unchanged as well at $525-$530/st FOB.
Pacific Northwest: The MAP market was quoted at $460-$465/st FOB and $460-$470/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest.
TSP (0-45-0) remained at $420/st FOB Pocatello, Idaho, with the 16-20-0 market pegged at $390-$395/st DEL in the region.
Simplot’s phos acid prices remained at $10.15/unit FOB Pocatello and $10.65/unit rail-DEL for SPA and MGA in the Pacific Northwest. Agrium’s phos acid postings were steady at March levels of $1,060/st of P2O5 for rail-DEL SPA and MGA in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. Sources said no phos acid pricing changes have been announced for April.
10-34-0 was steady at $461-$476/st FOB in the region. The 11-37-0 market remained at $502-$517/st FOB Hedges, Wash.
Western Canada: MAP pricing in Western Canada was quoted at $745-$765/mt DEL, down some $15-$25/mt from last report.
The 10-34-0 market remained at $680-$690/mt DEL in the region for new sales.
U.S. Export: Mosaic announced a number of small-lot sales for the week. The cargoes, totaling 11,000 mt of combined DAP and MAP, were sold into “various” Latin American markets. The material was priced at $360/mt FOB Tampa and tabbed for April shipment.
The Gulf export price was flat at $360/mt FOB for the week.
U.S. phosphate exports rose in February, according to The Fertilizer Institute (TFI). Producers sent 156,929 st of combined DAP and MAP offshore for the month, up from January’s 113,195 st and a 15.3 percent increase from the February 2015 total of 136,145 st.
The largest buyer of American product in February was once again Brazil at 53,109 st, which represented a 15.3 percent jump from the year-ago 46,055 st. Mexico’s 30,139 st was a 1,059.0 percent leap over the 2,601 st received in February 2015, while Australia’s 26,589 st represented a 5.2 percent increase from last year’s 46,055 st.
TFI noted year-over-year increases from each of the month’s three largest importers, with orders combining for a 35,913 st bump over last year. Japan also contributed to the healthy bottom line with 22,667 st received for the month, a 240.7 percent increase from the 6,653 st logged last February. The increased orders were more than enough to offset weak buying from Canada, whose 11,439 st represented a 40.6 percent drop from the year-ago 19,266 st.
With two months logged in the calendar year, Brazil was the largest buyer of U.S. phosphate at 83,569 st, followed by Australia at 53,980 st, Mexico at 35,197 st, Japan at 27,870 st, Colombia at 27,347 st, and Canada at 25,015 st. Brazil’s two-month total represented a 20.9 percent increase from last year’s 69,131 st, while Australia was up 2.3 percent from last year’s 52,769 st. Mexico was up a full 76.0 percent from the 20,003 st logged during January and February 2015.
Despite the strong month, calendar year-to-date sales remained considerably behind 2015 figures. Phosphates exported through February totaled 270,123 st, a 12.2 percent decline from last year’s 307,123 st. Anemic demand from Canada accounted for a portion of the reduced sales, along with slow buying from a number of South and Central American markets, including Costa Rica, Honduras, and Ecuador.
The price of phosphoric acid to India was $715/mt CFR for the first quarter, down $95/mt from the second-half 2015 price of $810/mt CFR.
Brazil: Last-done on the Brazil MAP market remained in the $360-$365/mt CFR range, sources said.
Andrey Guryev, CEO of Russian fertilizer producer Phos-Agro, predicted a considerably firmer Brazil phosphate market in the year ahead, according to a Bloomberg report. Brazilian demand could jump up to 34 percent in 2016 after beginning the year on a two-year low in the global price of phosphates, Guryev said.
PhosAgro, responsible for roughly 20 percent of Brazilian MAP imports, forecast demand of up to 6.7 million mt in that market in 2016. Brazil imported about 5 million mt in 2015.
India: Sources reported a lot of talk about DAP purchases, along with a lot of prices. One trader said the talk has to be taken with a grain of salt, however. The deals under discussion are all reportedly related to contracts, which means prices could vary as much as $20/mt.
One trader pointed out that discussions of $345-$348/mt CFR material are based on an optimistic view of the buyers.
What is clear so far, said one trader, is that prices are expected to be lower this year than next year. The Indian government is also taking the position that phosphate prices will not dramatically rise during the fiscal year starting April 1.
The anticipation of lower prices prompted the government to reduce the subsidy for phosphates to Rs13,241/mt
(US$193/mt), down from Rs20,875/mt (US$310/mt).
Tunisia: GCT is said to be operating its DAP capacity at normal rates, with sales of DAP to France and Italy reportedly concluded at prices in the $370s/mt FOB.
Pakistan: The Ministry of National Food Security and Research has reviewed the government’s subsidy on phosphate fertilizers and decided to resolve issues concerning availability.
The ministry is implementing its support package for the agriculture sector, which includes a DAP subsidy of Rs20 billion, equally shared by the federal and provincial governments.