EU Members Can Prioritize Fertilizers Amid Gas Risks

European Union fertilizer producers will get continued and undisrupted access to natural gas at the discretion of member states if the region faces a fuel shortage, according to Bloomberg, citing a Nov. 9 statement by the European Commission (EC).

The EC said it could release €450 million from its agriculture reserve in the 2023 fiscal year for farmers affected by high input costs, according to Janusz Wojciechowski, Commissioner for Agriculture. It said fertilizer prices rose by as much 149% in September 2022, compared with the same period a year earlier. It said farmers are deferring and reducing their fertilizer purchases, which risks lowering yields and raising food prices.

The EC also said it would push for a more efficient use of nutrients and will support investments in renewable hydrogen and biomethane for ammonia production.

Another Rail Union Approves Tentative Contract; Deadline for Possible Strike Pushed to December

Another union representing railroad employees has voted to accept the tentative contract agreement with the National Carriers Conference Committee (NCCC), which represents most Class I freight railroads in national collective bargaining. With at least two of 12 unions having already rejected the contract, however, the possibility of a rail strike still looms in December.

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) District 19, which represents Locomotive Machinists, Roadway Mechanics, and Facility Maintenance Personnel at NCCC freight rail carriers, announced on Nov. 5 that approximately 4,900 of its members voted to approve the negotiated contract, reflecting a 52% majority. The close result came with just 59% of union members participating in the vote, however.

The ratified agreement includes a 14.1% wage increase effective immediately, retroactive to Jan. 1, 2020, and a 24% wage increase by 2024; $5,000 in lump-sum bonus payments; a cap in monthly healthcare costs at $398.97 through the end of the five-year contract in 2025; an additional paid day off; single room occupancy guarantees for traveling roadway mechanics; and guarantees from the railroads to continue negotiations on overtime, travel expenses, and per diem.

“We are confident that this is the best deal for our members. District 19 leadership worked day and night to communicate the agreement’s benefits and what would happen if it was rejected,” IAM said in a statement. “Our union recognizes that the agreement wasn’t accepted overwhelmingly, so our team will continue conversing with our members at our rail yards across the nation. This agreement is the first step in addressing some of the issues in our industry.”

The IAM’s vote brings the total number of unions approving the tentative contract to seven, with two opposed. Three other unions are scheduled to vote later this month, including the two largest – the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (BLET), and the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, and Transportation Workers – Transportation Division (SMART-TD).

The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division (BMWED), which is the third largest union representing almost 12,000 rail workers, voted in mid-October to reject the agreement (GM Oct. 14, p. 1), citing ongoing disputes over paid sick leave and other quality of life issues. Just two weeks later, the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen (BRS), which represents more than 6,000 rail workers, also voted against the agreement (GM Oct. 28, p. 1).

BMWED indicated earlier that a strike could happen as early as Nov. 20. On Nov. 9, however, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) issued a statement saying that BMWED and the freight railroads had agreed to extend their cooling offer period until at least Dec. 4 to allow BLET and SMART-TD to complete their voting. As a result, no work stoppage will occur prior to that date. The NCCC reported in late October that it and the BRS had also agreed to maintain the status quo until early December.

“This agreement to extend the cooling off period affords all unionized employees the opportunity to vote on their agreements free of a looming strike threat,” said AAR President and CEO Ian Jefferies on Nov. 9. “Our goal remains the same – successfully completing this round of bargaining – and we stand ready to reach an agreement with BMWED based upon the Presidential Emergency Board’s recommendations.”

The 12 unions involved in labor negotiations collectively represent approximately 115,000 rail workers at the major Class 1 freight railroads. All 12 unions have to approve contracts to prevent a strike, and if any union continues to reject the contract, all the rail unions would honor their picket lines and refuse to work at the end of the cooling off period.

The railroads have estimated that a rail strike could cost the economy $2 billion per day. Should a strike appear imminent, Labor Secretary Marty Walsh told Bloomberg on Nov. 4 that the US Congress would likely intervene to prevent any work stoppage.

“Worst case scenario, if we don’t get to an agreement, Congress will have to take action,” Walsh said. “That is by design in the Railway Act. If the unions don’t ratify, Congress is the last stop that would have to take action.”

In a Nov. 7 letter to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch urged the congressional leaders to take “urgent” steps to prevent a rail network shutdown.

“Fertilizer markets have been experiencing extreme challenges for nearly two years, and this includes poor rail service, which is the worst it has been in decades,” Rosenbusch said in the letter. “As such, it is not possible to ‘catch-up’ on lost shipments due to network disruptions or a shutdown.”

Rosenbusch noted that railroads start pulling sensitive cargoes off the line days prior to any rail service stoppage, and fertilizer falls into this category. In September, embargoes were placed on ammonia shipments four days before a scheduled work stoppage on Sept. 16. A last minute deal on Sept. 15 averted the strike (GM Sept. 16, p. 1), but the temporary suspension of ammonia shipments had longer-lasting effects.

“For every day shipments are embargoed, we essentially lose five shipping days because of the ramp down and ramp up,” Rosenbusch said.

“Inflation is hurting all Americans. Poor rail service is a contributing factor, and a complete halt to all freight rail operations would make inflation drastically worse, especially for those who can least afford it,” Rosenbusch’s letter concluded. “America’s farmers and consumers need your help to avoid a catastrophic disruption to freight rail operations.”

Orica FY22 EBIT Up 36%; Refreshed Strategy, Improved Markets Cited

Melbourne-based explosives manufacturer Orica Ltd. reported EBIT for the full-year ending Sept. 30, 2022, of A$579 million, up 36% from the year-ago $427 million. Statutory Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) was $60 million, including $257 million of significant item expense after tax. Orica had a FY21 loss of $173.8 million (GM Nov. 12, 2021). Total full-year revenues were up 36%, to $7.3 billion from $5.7 billion.

Following the sanctions placed on Russia, Orica said it completed the exit of its operating business in Russia in September, and related assets have been fully impaired.

Orica said total ammonium nitrate volumes increased 4% from the prior year due to increased mining activity driven by strong commodity prices and the company’s ability to provide security of supply to customers in a tight supply market.

“Our full-year result reflects the strength and resilience of our team, and a commitment to our refreshed strategy, resulting in improved financial performance and growth across all regions,” said Orica Managing Director and CEO Sanjeev Gandhi. “In November 2021, we refreshed our strategy centered on optimizing our operations, delivering smarter solutions, and partnering for progress across our four business verticals of mining, quarry and construction, digital solutions, and mining chemicals.

“This year has presented both challenges and opportunities for our business, including geopolitical tensions, trade sanctions, strong global commodity prices, and security of supply risks,” he added. “Our commercial discipline and collaborative culture, combined with the strength of our global manufacturing and supply network, have positioned us well to capitalize on the current market conditions and opportunities presented by a growing commodities market.”

The company expects FY23 EBIT from continuing operations to increase from FY22’s $563.8 million, which were up 39% from FY21’s $404.6 million.

“We expect the demand for critical minerals to remain strong in the year ahead, and we are well-positioned to navigate ongoing external challenges with the strengths of our global network and culture, while lowering our greenhouse gas emissions,” said Gandhi.

Compass Finalizes Lithium Supply Agreement

Compass Minerals on Nov. 10 announced the signing of a binding, multiyear supply agreement to provide LG Energy Solution (LGES), a global manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with battery-grade lithium carbonate from its Ogden, Utah, solar evaporation lithium brine development. The agreement is the culmination of negotiations announced in June (GM July 1, p. 27).

Per the terms of the agreement, Compass would deliver up to 40% of its planned, phase one battery-grade lithium carbonate production to LGES for an initial six-year term from supply commencement. Purchase pricing will be based on market index under the agreement.

As previously announced, the company expects an annual commercial production capacity of approximately 35,000 mt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) once fully operational, with an initial phase one capacity of approximately 11,000 mt battery-grade lithium carbonate coming online by 2025.

Compass is pursuing the sustainable development of an approximately 2.4 million mt LCE resource on the Great Salt Lake, readily available for extraction through existing permits, water rights, and operational infrastructure at the company’s Ogden facility, the largest of its kind in the Western Hemisphere.

Farm Group Opposes New Brunswick Potash Exploration

The National Farmers Union in New Brunswick (NFU-NB) said on Nov. 7 that it is concerned by the Government of New Brunswick’s recent Request for Proposals (RFP) for potash exploration in the Salt Springs and Cassidy Lakes areas, noting the RFP covers 26,350 hectares and the land is mostly privately owned (GM Oct. 28, p. 1).

It added that exploration and potential resource extraction will occur on the unceded and unsurrendered territory of Indigenous Peoples who should have stewardship over the land and water.

The NFU-NB is concerned about impacts to farms during exploration and long-term effects to farmland should extraction proceed. It said mining exploration can cause significant damage to farms before permission from landowners is required or any large equipment is brought onsite. It said it did not want to see further agricultural land lost in New Brunswick in the future.

Although potash is primarily used in fertilizer, NFU-NB said that what was extracted from the province in the past was mainly exported. It said this potential extraction will likely have little benefit to the farms and people of New Brunswick, in part because potash mines today require few new employees to run.

NFU-NB said farmers are already concerned about New Brunswick’s water tables, and that potash extraction uses and damages this resource. It said the former Nutrien Ltd. mine extracted an average of 11 million liters of water from the Penobsquis aquifer each day. It said an Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment conducted by the Royal District Planning Commission in 2012 reported that groundwater from Grand Lake to the Bay of Fundy is vulnerable to contamination.

The group said some 60 homes in Penobsquis reported losing their water supply after the mining activities began. It also said there was displacement of buildings and land, productive fields became too wet to farm, and there were fears that wastewater was not properly treated. It said properties were devalued, sinkholes appeared, and questions raised about human health concerns were never addressed.

Yara Growth Ventures Invests in Brazil’s Agrolend

Yara Growth Ventures (YGV), the investment team within Yara International ASA, has announced an investment in Brazilian agriculture fintech firm Agrolend, Sao Paulo. Founded by brothers Alan and Andre Glezer in 2021, Agrolend offers farmers a quick means of procuring credit to buy inputs such as fertilizer.

Loans are formalized in a 100% digital manner using the grower’s Whatsapp, and the capital becomes available in less than a week. Agrolend has a network of more than 100 partners, with the credit being offered directly at the point of sale with a retailer. It is present in more than 10 Brazilian states and in several segments such as soybeans, corn, coffee, sugar cane, fruits, livestock, and dairy cattle.

Following the R$145M series B funding round, Agrolend looks to build a profitable R$2 billion loan book with a client base of 10,000 farmers in the coming years. The series B round was led by Lightrock, a global private equity manager with an impact focus, as well as Suzano Holding (large pulp and paper producer), Mago Capital (investment vehicle of the founders of Locaweb in Brazil), and YGV.

“Agrolend managed to bring together investors with complementary characteristics, joining competences such as growth capital with an impact focus, deep knowledge of the agribusiness sector, global presence, among others,” said Agrolend Co-Founder Andre Glezer.

“Furthermore, those investors have long-time commitments to invest in Brazil and are willing to invest much more at Agrolend in the following years,” he added.

“I’m excited to have the chance to work with the Glezers and the Agrolend team to help Brazilian farmers,” said YGV Investment Director George Roche. “We have seen globally that better access to financing allows farmers to do better and become more sustainable – Agrolend is playing this critical role in Brazil, and we look forward to their growth.”

Amogy Collaborates with Yara Clean Ammonia

Ammonia power technology provider Amogy has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Yara Clean Ammonia (YCA), a decarbonization-focused subsidiary of Yara International ASA. Under the MOU, YCA will consider Amogy’s ammonia-to-power system as a zero-emissions solution for use within future shipping projects. The companies will also pursue opportunities with external partners, including shipowners, for Amogy to deliver its proprietary technology and YCA to deliver clean ammonia.

YCA operates the largest global ammonia network with 12 ships, and has access to 18 ammonia terminals and multiple ammonia production and consumption sites across the world through Yara. YCA is currently building an ammonia bunkering network in Scandinavia, with the first bunker barge to be operational in 2024.

Amogy recently announced plans for an ammonia tank barge in 2023, in partnership with Southern Devall (GM Nov. 4, p. 37), and launched operations in Norway (GM Oct. 7, p. 31).

“This collaboration with Yara Clean Ammonia is a natural next step for Amogy following the establishment of our Norway operations earlier this year,” said Seonghoon Woo, Co-Founder and CEO of Amogy. “YCA operates a vast global ammonia network and understands the value of the compound as a next-generation fuel to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors, like shipping. This agreement provides a fantastic opportunity for Amogy to work alongside innovators in this space to support further demonstrations of our technology in maritime vessels.”

Warrego, Strike Eye Merger

ASX-listed Warrego Energy Ltd., Perth, Western Australia, which owns natural gas projects in Western Australia and Spain, reported on Nov. 10 that it has received a nonbinding and indicative proposal from junior urea producer Strike Energy Ltd., Thebarton, South Australia, under which Strike would acquire all of the shares of Warrego that it does not already own.

Under the proposal, Warrego shareholders would receive 0.775 in new Strike shares for each Warrego share held. Shareholders would also receive the net proceeds from the eventual sale of Warrego’s Spanish assets.

Under the proposal, Warrego shareholders would own approximately 30.5% of the combined group and have the right to appoint one member to the Board of Directors.

Warrego owns 50% of a holding in EP469 in Western Australia, including the West Erregulla gas project, and 100% of STP-EPA-0127, which covers 2.2 million acres. Strike plans to use gas from Erregulla. In Spain, it holds an 85% working interest in the Tesorillo gas project in the Cadiz region and a 50.1% working interest in the El Romeral gas to power facility in the Seville region.

 

Mosaic Misses Estimates on Lower Phosphate Sales, Hurricane Damage; Sees Continued Tight Supplies

The Mosaic Co. announced third-quarter net earnings of $841.7 million on revenues of $5.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion, below Bloomberg Consensus analyst estimates of a $1.19 billion net income, revenues of $5.76 billion, and $1.88 billion adjusted EBITDA.

Despite the miss, the company’s net earnings more than doubled from the year-ago $371.9 million, while outpacing prior-year revenues of $3.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $969 million. Gross margin for the quarter was $1.50 billion, up from $864.5 million.

Mosaic cited a demand dip in the third-quarter phosphate market, as well as reduced production volumes stemming in part from damage sustained from Hurricane Ian.

“Mosaic delivered record sales in the first nine months of 2022, and we expect favorable fundamentals as we conclude the year and look forward to 2023,” said Joc O’Rourke, Mosaic President and CEO. “In our Phosphates business, Hurricane Ian forced us to shut down operations late in the third quarter, which delayed shipments at the end of September. Our team performed admirably and was able to get our Florida operations back up and running quickly following the hurricane. We estimate the shortfall in production to be in the range of 200,000 mt.”

Phosphate sales volumes were down 10% in the third quarter at 1.7 million mt, Mosaic said, while turnarounds and impacts to the company’s Florida-based operations due to Hurricane Ian contributed to a 4% year-over-year decline in production.

Strong potash prices, as well as increases in both MOP production numbers and sales volumes, were a primary driver for the company’s year-over-year earnings increase, the company showed. The average MOP price for the quarter was $666/mt, up 129.7% from the year-ago $290/mt. Sales volumes registered a 16.7% increase, at 2.1 million mt compared to 1.8 million mt in 3Q 2021, while production firmed 43.8%, to 2.3 million mt from 1.6 million mt.

O’Rourke attributed the segment’s price strength to ongoing global supply weakness.

“Global potash supply remains impacted by the significant reduction in Belarusian exports, which we think will be down 8 million mt in 2022,” said O’Rourke. “Of the 4 million mt they will export this year, we estimate about 2 million mt were shipped in the first quarter before the sanctions and Lithuania’s decision to prevent Belarus from using its ports.”

Mosaic anticipated similar conditions continuing into 2023. “If I think about 2023 … with the lack of sales coming out of Belarus, we do see that the market is going to have to ration supply,” said O’Rourke, “which does … bring up an opportunity for us to potentially move more product.

“We have, I think, developed real great flexibility there with Esterhazy now reaching what I would call its full capacity, (and) bringing on Colonsay to augment that capacity and give us some flexibility so that we can hit the seasonality as well as the increased demand. So I think we’re well positioned there,” he added.

The phosphate market continued to be impacted by supply constraints of its own, the company said, citing continued expectations of a full-year export reduction totaling 5 million mt from China, which O’Rourke expected could continue through “at least” the first half of 2023, and possibly beyond.

“While global channel inventories of phosphate and potash remain below historic norms, certain regions – especially in the areas where we do most of our business – inventories built in the first half of the year,” O’Rourke said. “But prices have retreated back to levels low enough to entice growers to step back into the market. We expect inventories to continue working lower through the end of the year and into early 2023.”

While US farmers were previously seen mining their soil, falling fertilizer prices were said to entice growers toward more typical application rates.

“US fall application has been trending back towards normal levels. We believe we could end the season with inventories significantly depleted, especially for phosphates,” said O’Rourke. “The strength of crop prices and more affordable fertilizer prices suggest nutrient demand will recover from the summer lull we experienced during the third quarter.”

For the fourth quarter, Mosaic expects MOP sales volumes of 2.0-2.2 million mt, with mine-gate prices landing in the $580-$630/mt range. Phosphate sales volumes are projected at 1.7-2.0 million mt, with DAP prices anticipated in a $700-$750/mt FOB range. A decline in raw materials prices, specifically sulfur, is expected to improve phosphate margins by $40-$45/mt in the fourth quarter.

Net earnings in the nine-month period were $3.06 billion on net sales of $14.64 billion, above the year-ago $965.8 million and $8.52 billion, respectively. Gross margin was $4.79 billion, rising from $2.05 billion.

Potash (millions) 3Q-22 3Q-21
Sales Volume (000 mt) 2.1 1.8
Production Volume (000 mt) 2.3 1.6
Gross Margin (million $) 799 236
Operating Earnings (million $) 793 220
Adjusted EBITDA 871 272
Sales (million $) 1,400 589
MOP Selling Price $/mt 666 290
Phosphates (millions) 3Q-22 3Q-21
Sales Volume (000 mt) 1.7 1.8
Production (Finished) Vol. (000 mt) 1.7 1.8
Gross Margin (million $) 358 364
Operating Earnings (million $) 131 326
Adjusted EBITDA 481 479
Sales (million $) 1,600 1,300
DAP Selling Price $/mt 809 605
Mosaic Fertilizantes (millions) 3Q-22 3Q-21
Sales Volume (000 mt) 2.8 3.4
Gross Margin (million $) 348 332
Operating Earnings (million $) 323 290
Adjusted EBITDA 343 317
Sales (million $) 2,600 1,800
Avg Finished Price (Dest.) 931 524

Nutrien Ltd. – Management Brief

Nutrien Ltd.’s Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Mark Thompson, announced that John Fowler has been appointed as the company’s Senior Vice President of NPK Sales. In this role, he will oversee Nutrien’s global sales teams servicing customers around the world.

Fowler has been with Nutrien for 20 years, working in numerous senior commercial and sales leadership roles for the company, with deep experience supporting global agricultural and industrial customers. He was most recently accountable for Ag Sales in the Central US region.

Nutrien also recently announced that Trevor Williams has taken on the role of Interim President of Nitrogen and Phosphate. He has been with the company for over 11 years, most recently as Senior Vice President of Nitrogen Operations. The company said he has diverse global experience leading large chemical operations and strategic growth initiatives.

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