Dry Fertilizer Barge Rates
| 8/11/2023 | Last Week | |
| Memphis | 18.50-19.00 | 18.50-19.00 |
| St. Louis | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| Peoria | 27.00-28.50 | 27.00-28.50 |
| Cincinnati | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| St. Paul | 33.00 | 33.00 |
| Catoosa/Inola | 36.00 | 36.00 |
All Posts from August 11, 2023
Dockworkers Union Ratifies Four-Year Contract, Ending Vancouver Labor Dispute
Dockworkers with the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada voted on Aug. 3-4 to ratify a deal reached with the B.C. Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA), ending a weeks-long labor dispute that crippled port operations at Vancouver and Prince Rupert, B.C.
Nearly 75% of the roughly 7,400 striking union members voted in favor of the new contract, which was negotiated with the help of the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB), ILWU President Rob Ashton said in a statement on the union’s Facebook page late on Aug. 4. The BCMEA has also ratified the deal.
“As we move forward to implement the terms of the agreement, we are committed to working collaboratively with our labor partners, the federal government, and key stakeholders to rebuild the reputation of Canada’s largest gateway,” BCMEA said in an Aug. 4 news release.
The vote happened a week after ILWU Canada’s voting membership rejected an earlier four-year tentative agreement that was proposed by a senior federal mediator and recommended for ratification by the ILWU Bargaining Committee and their Longshore Caucus (GM July 28, p. 1).
The CIRB on Aug. 7 released the terms of the new four-year contract, which includes general wage increase of 5% annually for the next two years and 4% for the remaining two years, boosting hourly wages to a base rate of C$57.51 by 2026. The contract also increases the “Modernization and Mechanization retirement lump sum” payout to C$96,250 in 2026 for eligible retirees, over and above normal pension entitlements.
In addition, the deal includes a commitment by employers to train workers to perform maintenance on new equipment instead of contracting out maintenance work to third parties.
“This is good news for the employer, the union, and the many workers and businesses across Canada that rely on our B.C. ports,” said Federal Labor Minister Seamus O’Regan and Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez in a joint social media statement on Aug. 4.
The strike, which shut down port operations from July 1-13 (GM July 7, p. 1) before workers returned to their jobs while negotiations continued, disrupted the movement of an estimated C$10.7 billion in cargo, according to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade.
The walkout hit the fertilizer industry hard, with Canpotex withdrawing all offers for new potash sales on July 19 (GM July 21, p. 1) and Nutrien Ltd. curtailing production at both its Rocanville and Cory mines in Saskatchewan (GM July 14, p. 1). Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CPKC) and Canadian National Railway Co. both reduced movement of railcars to West Coast ports.
Fertilizer Canada on July 5 issued a statement calling on the federal government to take immediate action to end the work stoppage, noting that Canada exports 95% of the potash it produces to global markets with the majority flowing through the Port of Vancouver.
“The BCMEA recognizes and regrets the profound repercussions this labor disruption has had on the national economy, workers, businesses, and ultimately, all Canadians that depend on an efficient and reliable supply chain,” Vancouver-based BCMEA said in its Aug. 4 statement.
“All supply chain stakeholders must collaborate now to ensure we do not see disruptions like this ever again,” the statement continued. “Whether in Halifax, Montreal, or the Pacific Gateway, Canadians are relying on us – employers, unions, and the federal government – to keep goods flowing and ensure supply chain stability and resilience for the future.”
Farmward, New Vision Opt Against Unification
The Boards of Directors of Farmward Cooperative, Brewster, Minn., and New Vision Co-op, Morgan, Minn., jointly announced on Aug. 7 that they have concluded ongoing unification discussions and have decided not to unify at this time.
The decision follows a two-month study in which the Boards and leadership visited with employees and members, led focus groups, and toured each cooperative’s facilities in addition to conducting in-depth financial and governance reviews.
“While there were many great opportunities offered in a unification, our immediate focus is on serving our respective members, “ said Farmward Board Chair Dave Kadlec. “The two cooperatives are a good match, but we want to take some more time to sit back and focus on our own teams while we continue to build upon the great partnership we’ve built in this process.”
Both Farmward and New Vision said they intend to continue identifying opportunities to grow, expand, and improve their businesses. Each board expressed their gratitude to the member-owners and employees who shared their feedback, insights, and ideas during the study period.
“Our cooperatives are each in great financial shape and our employees are energized for serving our members,” said New Vision Board Chair Chad Wieneke. “It’s been great to connect the teams at our two cooperatives. Those relationships are going to benefit our producers. It has benefitted the Boards.”
Farmward began in 2017 with the merger of legacy cooperatives Harvest Land and Co-op Country Farmers Elevator. In 2019, Equity Elevator and Trading Co. joined the cooperative. Farmward has some 14 locations, including Clements, Comfrey, Danube (two), Morton (two), Olivia, Renville, Sacred Heart, Springfield, Wabasso, and Wood Lake.
Farmward has anhydrous ammonia sites at Blomkest and Buffalo Lake. Products and services include grain handling and marketing, crop protection, crop nutrients, seed, precision ag, bulk feed manufacturing and delivery, and bulk delivery of energy products, including refined fuels, propane, and lubricants. It also provides producer financing, leasing, crop insurance, and property and casualty insurance through two subsidiary companies, AgQuest Financial Services and Northland Capital.
New Vision dates back to 1901 and serves more than 2,000 member-owners in southwest Minnesota, northwest Iowa, and eastern South Dakota from 19 locations in Minnesota. In addition to two sites in Brewster, the co-op has locations in Worthington, Miloma, Dundee, Heron Lake, Reading, Wilmont, Windom, Adrian, Jeffers, Ellsworth, Alpha, Magnolia, Mountain Lake, Beaver Creek, Hills, Marna, and Mankato. New Vision lists its three major businesses as agronomy, grain, and feed.
Analysts See Potential Obstacles to Pupuk Kaltim’s Acquisition of IPL Fertilizer Business
With Indonesia’s state-owned fertilizer company PT Pupuk Kalimantan Timur (Pupuk Kaltim) seen as the preferred bidder of the fertilizer business of Australia’s Incitec Pivot Ltd. (IPL) (GM July 28, p. 1), Morgan Stanley is among the analysts skeptical about a potential sale, flagging “some obstacles,” the Australian Financial Review reported.
Melbourne-based IPL, which confirmed last month that it has received several approaches for the potential acquisition of its fertilizer business (GM July 14, p. 1), has yet to publicly reveal whether the fertilizer business is on the selling block. IPL said in a July 12 statement issued to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) that its Board is assessing a potential sale along with the ongoing proposal to structurally separate Incitec Pivot Fertilisers and the Dyno Nobel explosives business.
Analysts see a sale of IPL’s fertilizer business as a bit more attractive than the separation plan. Andrew Scott, Morgan Stanley’s Head of Industrials Research Andrew Scott, described the expected A$1.5 billion valuation (approximately $981.2 million at current exchange rates) of the IPL fertilizer business as the “best case for shareholders” in a note to clients.
But Scott sees several obstacles, including supply certainty, Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) considerations, and the gas disruptions at IPF’s Phosphate Hill ammonium phosphates plant in Queensland.
IPL has flagged A$75-$90 million of additional costs this fiscal year to source shortfall gas for Phosphate Hill (GM June 9, p. 25). Moreover, the gas supplier, Power and Water Corp., has indicated that the gas reserve shortfalls are expected to continue for the remainder of the term of the gas supply agreement with IPL, which runs until mid-2028.
According to the Australian Financial Review, Scott said a potential buyer of the fertilizer business “would struggle to get comfort on future gas reliability.” He said the Phosphate Hill plant historically has been poorly positioned on the cost curve “and additional gas costs could make it unviable at long run fertilizer and currency prices.”
Scott also noted that IPF supplements its sulfur needs for Phosphate Hill from the Glencore Mount Isa copper smelter in Queensland. While the smelter’s life has been extended to 2026, he said there is no “certainty of production beyond then.” Scott believes external sourcing of sulfur would present a major hit to Phosphate Hill’s profitability.
He also sees some difficulties with the sale of IPL’s fertilizer business to an international buyer, as the transaction could need FIRB approval to have an international buyer gain control over a “significant domestic DAP supply,” the Australian Financial Review reported.
Phosphate Hill is Australia’s sole manufacturer of phosphate fertilizers, producing 735,900 mt in FY2022 and 958,400 mt in FY2021. IPL was also the sole producer of urea in Australia before it permanently stopped production at is Gibson Island site at Brisbane. The company still produces SSP and blends a range of NPKs at its Geelong site in Victoria.
Australian farmers too are concerned about the bid by Pupuk Kaltim for IPL’s fertilizer business. Australian National Farmers Federation Vice President David Jochinke said the recent COVID pandemic demonstrated Australia’s need for its own supply of key resources, including fertilizer, Australia Broadcasting Corp. reported.
Jochinke has urged the FIRB to keep Australian farmers at the center of any decision they make. According to the report, he believes the Pupuk Kaltim offer might prompt some Australian superannuation funds to bid for IPL’s fertilizer business.
Despite no longer being a producer of urea, IPL has lined up a 20-year offtake agreement for 2.3 million mt/y of granular urea from Perdaman Chemicals and Fertilisers Pty Ltd.’s Karratha plant, which is under construction on Western Australia’s Burrup Peninsula and expected to be commissioned in mid-2027 (GM May 7, 2021).
Pupuk Kaltim has 13 fertilizer plants in Indonesia, with a current annual output of some 3.4 million mt of urea, 2.7 million mt of ammonia, and 300,000 mt of NPK, according to a NikkeiAsia report (GM July 28, p. 1), all fertilizers used by Australian farmers. The company wants to increase its supplies to support food security in Indonesia, however.
AdvanSix 2Q Results Down from Year-ago Record; Trade Action Mulled on Nylon
AdvanSix reported second-quarter net income of $32.7 million on sales of $427.9 million, down from the year-ago record of $65.2 million and $583.7 million, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $65.8 million, off from $105.4 million.
“AdvanSix successfully delivered solid earnings and cash flow results in the second quarter against a record prior year,” said Erin Kane, President and CEO of AdvanSix. “We captured strong in-season demand for plant nutrients in a significantly lower nitrogen and raw material environment, navigated a nylon pricing environment pressured by industry supply and demand conditions including increased low-priced imports, while North American acetone supply and demand continued to be balanced.”
Quarterly cash dividends were increased by 10%, to $0.16 per share. The company repurchased 410,862 shares during the quarter at $14.9 million.
Kane told analysts that the company is assessing increased nylon exports from China into an already soft market, with a possible trade case as an option.
Second-quarter market-based pricing was unfavorable by 19% compared to the prior year, with the company citing lower nutrient values that reduced ammonium sulfate pricing, as well as lower nylon pricing. AdvanSix said significantly lower ammonium sulfate prices were only partially offset by lower input costs, such as sulfur and natural gas.
Overall, raw material pass-through pricing was unfavorable by 6% following a net cost decrease in benzene and propylene. Sales volume decreased approximately 2%, driven by soft end-market demand impacting portions of nylon and chemical intermediate lines, which was partially offset by higher domestic ammonium sulfate volume to meet strong in-season customer demand.
Ammonium sulfate continued as the company’s sales leader with sales of $138.9 million, representing 32% of total company sales of $427.9 million. However, the percentage was down from the year-ago 35%, or $205.9 million and $583.7 million, respectively.
Going forward, AdvanSix expects favorable underlying agriculture industry fundaments to continue and noted that it is typical to see North American ammonium sulfate seasonality to drive a third-quarter sequential domestic pricing decline.
“While we anticipate the impacts of ammonium sulfate seasonality and soft end-market demand overall, we remain well-positioned to offer near, medium and long-term value for our shareholders supported by the structural improvements made to the underlying earnings power of this business,” Kane said.
The company reiterated its plans to increase granular ammonium sulfate production (GM May 5, p. 1).
“We are highly focused on the execution of our upcoming third-quarter planned plant turnaround to support safe, stable, and sustainable operations at higher utilization rates relative to our industry,” Kane added. The cost estimate for the turnaround is $25-$30 million, which is less than the year-ago turnaround expense of $44 million. Calendar 2023 turnaround expenses are put at $28-$33 million versus 2022’s $50 million.
Six-month net income was $67.7 million on sales of $828.5 million, down from the year-ago $128.2 million and $1.06 billion, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $131.1 million, down from $208.6 million.
Itafos 2Q Results, EBITDA Guidance Follow Prices Lower; Strategic Review Ongoing
Phosphate producer Itafos Inc. reported second-quarter net income of $20.4 million on revenues of $116.1 million, compared to the year-ago $44.3 million and $155 million, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $39.7 million, down from $63.6 million.
“We are pleased to report solid financial results and continuation of our strong safety and operational performance in second-quarter 2023,” said G. David Delaney, CEO of Itafos. However, he noted that the company has lowered its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, due to the sharp decline in commodity prices during the quarter.
“The impact of this price decline will also be seen in the company’s third-quarter performance due to the pricing formula of our MAP sales contract,” Delaney said “Following the sharp decline in the second quarter, commodity prices have partially rebounded in early third-quarter, driven by demand improvement and tighter US supply fundamentals.”
Itafos attributed the lower prices to weaker demand in response to historically high 2022 phosphate prices; softer ammonia and sulfur prices; softening of historically high crop prices; and increased phosphate exports from Russia and China.
Itafos is now projecting a drop in full-year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $115-$135 million versus the earlier estimate of $140-$180 million. However, net income is now put at $45-$60 million versus $35-$65 million.
Delaney reiterated the Record of Decision issued on April 24 (GM April 28, p. 1) and subsequent Notice to Proceed on May 8 (GM May 12, p. 29) for the Husky 1/North Dry Ridge mine project, saying they represent a significant milestone for the company.
“The approvals provide the path for the company to achieve our strategic goal of extending Conda’s mine life,” he said. “The permit allows us to work to continue to serve the North American fertilizer market through 2037 with potential to further extend the resource life through leases and third-party arrangements.”
Delaney said the process announced by its Board in first-quarter 2023 (GM March 17, p. 1) to explore and evaluate various strategic alternatives to enhance value for shareholders is ongoing. “At the same time, we remained focused on running the company to support our customers, maintaining our safety performance, and delivering on our operational and financial results,” he said.
Six-month net income was $48.6 million on revenues of $235.7 million, down from the year-ago $77.3 million and $304.9 million, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $82.6 million, down from $124 million.
The Conda plant produced 83,190 mt of P205 during the second quarter, up from the year-ago 80,297 mt, with the company citing operational efficiencies and reduced downtime. It generated adjusted EBITDA of $44.6 million on revenues of $112.9 million, compared to the year-ago $66.7 million and $148.9 million, respectively.
Six-month Conda P205 production was 165,336 mt, down from the year-ago 169,393 mt, with the drop attributed to extreme winter weather and unplanned downtime in the first quarter, mostly offset by stronger throughput in the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $92 million on revenues of $228.9 million, down from $131.1 million and $296.5 million, respectively.
Itafos expects relatively stable global agriculture and phosphate fertilizer fundamentals moving forward. While it expects some price volatility in the short term, it said consistent volume fundamentals in the phosphate fertilizer markets should stabilize pricing in the long term.
The Arraias sulfuric acid plant in Brazil produced 8,523 mt of product in the second quarter compared to the year-ago 20,549 mt. Itafos said the decrease was due to a shutdown and maintenance required in June 2023. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $800,000 compared to a year-ago gain of $400,000.
During the first six months the plant produced 29,137 mt, down from the year-ago 30,200 mt. The plant did not restart until February 2022. The plant had a six-month adjusted EBITDA loss of $600,000 versus a year-ago loss of $300,000.
Compass Moves to Plus Column
Compass Minerals moved into the plus column for the third quarter ending June 30, posting net earnings of $39.9 million, compared to a year-ago loss of $7.9 million. Sales were $207.6 million, down from $214.7 million, while adjusted EBITDA was $28.6 million, down from $32 million.
The company said the increase was driven by a $42.7 million tax benefit in the current quarter reflecting the impact of the recent acquisition of Fortress North America (GM May 12, p. 1) and recent changes in Canadian tax law. In addition, an increase in Salt operating earnings more than offset a dip in those from Plant Nutrition.
“The third quarter demonstrates tangible progress toward executing upon several strategic priorities that we believe over time will accelerate our growth and enhance the value of the enterprise,” said Kevin S. Crutchfield, President and CEO. “We are pleased with the results across our businesses, most notably the continued improvement in profitability per ton in our Salt business.
“In addition, we are forging ahead on important elements of our lithium project, including the completion of a binding supply agreement with Ford and the advancement of the commercial-scale demonstration DLE unit in Ogden,” Crutchfield continued. “This quarter we also saw Fortress release its first commercial product, with outstanding feedback regarding efficacy and delivery performance.”
Third-quarter Plant Nutrition operating earnings were $2.5 million on sales of $47.5 million compared to the year-ago $10.6 million and $55.6 million, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $11.7 million, down from $19.4 million.
Sales volumes were off 6%, to 63,000 st from 67,000 st, while average price per ton dropped 9%, to $752/st from $827/st. Compass cited the improved availability of potassium-based fertilizers around the world as well as lingering effects from extraordinary weather events in key markets earlier in the year that adversely impacted sales volumes.
Per-unit distribution costs decreased year-over-year due to changes in sales mix, the company said. All-in product costs increased 6% per ton, and included the impact of operational measures taken to mitigate the impact of a below-average 2022 evaporation season and higher natural gas costs experienced earlier in the year.
Crutchfield told analysts that Plant Nutrition has seen a number of headwinds this year. “From a macro point of view, buyers are simply being very cautious,” he said. “Our sentiment has clearly shifted toward a fear of getting stuck with higher-cost inventory and we are seeing lots of just-in-time purchasing. Whereas a year-ago, growers were concerned about being able to secure supply. Today, there is no concern on that front.”
He said these dynamics have been further exacerbated by the lack of demand caused by abnormal weather in California. “This is frankly a rough part of the cycle and we simply have to manage our way through it,” he said. Crutchfield added that operationally things are going well at the Ogden production facility, and the company expects demand will revert to more normal levels next year.
Salt posted third-quarter operating earnings of $21.7 million on sales of $155.5 million, up from the year-ago $12.4 million and $156.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $36.4 million, up from $27.7 million. While volumes were down at 1.49 million st from 1.68 million st, average prices climbed to $104.28/st from $92.83/st.
Company-wide nine-month net earnings were $18 million on sales of $971.1 million, up from the year-ago loss of $17.6 million and $994.7 million, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $167.8 million, off from $171.1 million.
Plant Nutrition nine-month operating earnings were $12.8 million on sales of $136.8 million, down from the year-ago $24.5 million and $164.5 million, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA slipped to $38.8 million from $50.9 million. Sales volumes were off 25%, to 168,000 st from 224,000 st while the average price was up 11%, to $814/st from $735/st.
Salt posted nine-month operating earnings of $141.9 million on sales of $824.1 million, up from the year-ago $101.1 million and $821.4 million, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $186.3 million, up from $148.8 million. Sales were off at 9.41 million st from 10.45 million st, but prices averaged $87.53/st, up from $78.58/st.
For the full fiscal year 2023, Compass narrowed Plant Nutrition sales volume projections to 200,000-225,000 st from 205,000-270,000 st, revenue to $160-$175 million from $155-$225 million, and adjusted EBITDA to $40-$50 million from $30-$60 million.
Compass now anticipates total Salt volumes of 11.0-11.55 million st versus the earlier estimate of 11.35-12.2 million st, revenue of $985 million-$1.025 billion versus $990 million-$1.065 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $220-$235 million compared to $215-$255 million.
K+S 2Q Misses Estimates; Maintains EBITDA Outlook
K+S Group reported second-quarter EBITDA of €24.3 million, down from the year-ago €706.4 million, missing analysts’ average estimate of €100.4 million (Bloomberg Consensus). Revenue also missed estimates and was 45% lower year-over-year, at €825.8 million against €1.51 billion the previous year and the average estimate of €864.6 million.
K+S cited declining prices as the main impact on the Agriculture customer segment results, as well as sales volumes that were 11% lower year-over-year, at 1.67 million mt versus 1.87 million mt in second-quarter 2022. It said inflation-related additions to provisions for mining obligations amounting to around €18 million also had a negative impact on EBITDA.
The company confirmed its full-year EBITDA guidance of €600-€800 million that it revised downward in late July, largely due to potassium chloride price effects in the second quarter, particularly in the Brazilian market (GM July 28, p. 26). K+S is also maintaining the revised adjusted free cash flow at €300-€450 million for FY2023.
However, K+S noted the long-awaited bottoming out of the market in Brazil at the end of the second quarter. “We assume that the positive signals for the course of the second half of 2023 will prevail,” said K+S Chairman Burkhard Lohr.
Lohr reiterated that at the upper end of the EBITDA guidance, K+S expects prices to continue to rise for the rest of the year. In addition, he said the company will be able to sell roughly 2 million mt of product per quarter.
Regarding the mid-range of the guidance, K+S sees lower volumes and prices still rising, but not as strongly as in the upper-range assumptions. The lower end of the range would mean that prices come down again. Lohr said he believes this is less probable, “though not a zero probability.”
Second-quarter revenues in the Agriculture customer segment fell 55% year-over-year, to €557 million from €1.24 billion. The company mainly cited price factors for the downturn, as well as declining sales volumes as customers adopted a wait-and-see attitude in some sales regions.
K+S Agriculture Customer Segment
| 2Q-2023 | 2Q-2022 | 1H-2023 | 1H-2022 | |
| Revenues (€Million) | 557.0 | 1,244.2 | 1,418.3 | 2,188.3 |
| Potassium Chloride | 348.0 | 849.2 | 893.6 | 1,474.5 |
| Fertilizer Specialties | 208.9 | 395.0 | 524.7 | 713.8 |
| Sales Volumes (Million mt) | 1.67 | 1.87 | 3.40 | 3.66 |
| Potassium Chloride | 1.11 | 1.18 | 2.21 | 2.29 |
| Fertilizer Specialties | 0.56 | 0.69 | 1.19 | 1.37 |
| Revenues | ||||
| Europe (€ million) | 231.9 | 543.0 | 572.0 | 892.9 |
| Overseas ($ million) | 353.9 | 746.5 | 913.2 | 1,413.0 |
| Sales Volumes (Million mt) | 1.67 | 1.87 | 3.40 | 3.66 |
| Europe | 0.59 | 0.84 | 1.21 | 1.60 |
| Overseas | 1.08 | 1.03 | 2.19 | 2.06 |
| Average Price (€/mt) | 333.5 | 663.9 | 417.6 | 597.0 |
| Europe (€/mt) | 390.5 | 648.4 | 471.1 | 556.4 |
| Overseas ($/mt | 328.9 | 727.2 | 416.5 | 685.6 |
Lohr said K+S has not seen any impact of the Vancouver port strike on its Bethune, Sask., operations. However, he conceded that while the strike is over, there is a remaining risk “because there are miles of railcars waiting to be unloaded at Vancouver,” which could have an impact if this takes longer than expected.
Lohr added that K+S has the flexibility to ship volumes from Germany, and the company is already shipping volumes from Zielitz (in Germany) via Hamburg to Brazil.
In the Industry+ customer segment, revenues were up slightly at €268.7 million versus €265.7 million in last year’s second quarter. Second-quarter sales volumes declined 5% year-over-year, to 1.39 million mt from 1.46 million mt. K+S said it has already fixed 80% of its gas consumption for 2024 on a price level below €40 per megawatt.
The company said lower sales volumes for industrial applications and significantly lower prices for chemical products containing potash were offset by significant price increases, especially for salt products.
For the first-half of 2023, K+S posted a 61% decline in EBITDA, to €478.1 million on sales of €2.02 billion, down from the year-ago €1.23 billion and €2.72 billion, respectively. Six-month revenues were down 26% year-over-year. Half-year revenues in the Agriculture customer segment fell 35%, to 1.42 billion from €2.19 billion, while Industry+ revenues increased 12%, to €599.4 million from €533.9 million.
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