K+S Group posted a 13% fall in EBITDA to €453.8 million (approximately $497.9
million at current exchange rates) for the first quarter ended March 31, 2023, down
from €524.1 million the previous year. However, the result came in 7% above the
average analyst estimate of €430.1 million (Bloomberg
Consensus).
Adjusted
group earnings after tax for the quarter declined 26% to €232.4 million,
resulting in an adjusted earnings per share of €1.21, versus €312.7 million, and
Revenues dipped nearly 2% to €1.19 billion versus the prior-year €1.21billion.
K+S
said higher revenues in the Industry+ customer segment could not fully offset a
near 9% decline of revenues in the Agriculture customer segment. It added that earnings
were also impacted by higher costs and higher inflation rates in the valuation
of mining provisions amounting to around €12 million.
“Overall,
we have made a good start into the new year,” said K+S Chairman Burkhard
Lohr. “Against the background of the exceptional year 2022, the global
potash business has taken much longer in recent months to establish a new price
orientation. We now expect overseas potash prices to recover moderately in the
second half of 2023.”
K+S has cut its EBITDA guidance for full-year 2023 to range between €1.15 billion and €1.35 billion, down from the previous €1.3 billion to €1.5 billion guidance issued in March at the release of its fourth-quarter and FY2022 earnings (GM March 17, p. 24) and versus a FY2022 EBITDA of €2.4 billion. The revised guidance includes negative valuation effects from mining provisions in “the mid double-digit euro range,” the company said.
The
adjusted outlook now implies postponement of a moderate increase of overseas
potash prices compared with the current level into the second half of the year,
the company said.
“We
expect potash demand to pick up in the second half of this year, and this is base
for our outlook,” Lohr told analysts at a company earnings call on May 9.
K+S
shares fell as much as 6.1% after the company cut its EBITDA guidance for the
full year, a move that analysts suggested would cause consensus estimates to be
revised downwards, Bloomberg
reported.
Baader’s
Markus Mayer, as cited by Bloomberg,
believes K+S’ guidance cut would suggest a need for an approximately 8%
downward revision to consensus, and said “the cut may not come as a
surprise after peers reported their latest trading update,” adding that it
should nevertheless weigh on the May 9 price.
In
terms to individual customer segments, K+S’ Agriculture customer segment posted
a near 9% year-over-year fall in revenues, to €861.4 million in the first
quarter of this year, down from €944.1 million. The company cited lower selling
prices and lower sales volumes due to delayed deliveries due to “still
strained logistics” and a continued wait-and-see attitude on the part of
customers.
The
segment’s overall sales volumes were down 3% from a year earlier, to 1.73
million mt versus 1.79 million mt.
Of that
total, potassium chloride sales volumes dipped 0.5% year-over-year to 1.10
million mt from 1.11 million mt, while fertilizer specialties sales volumes saw
a bigger decline – down
by 9%, to 0.63 million mt from the first quarter 2022’s 0.69 million mt.
Volumes
sold in Europe were down by 18% year-over-year, to 0.62 million mt from 0.76
million mt. But Overseas sales volumes in the first quarter of 2023 increased
by 8% compared with the same year-earlier quarter, to 1.11 million mt, up from
1.03 million mt.
K+S Segment Revenues, Sales Volumes, Prices
|
1Q-2023
|
1Q-2022
|
% change
|
Revenues € million
|
861.4
|
944.1
|
(9)
|
Potassium
chloride
|
545.6
|
625.3
|
(13)
|
Fertilizer
specialties
|
315.8
|
318.8
|
(1)
|
|
|
|
|
Sales volumes million mt |
1.73
|
1.79
|
(3)
|
Potassium
chloride
|
1.10
|
1.11
|
(0.5)
|
Fertilizer
specialties
|
0.63
|
0.69
|
(9)
|
|
|
|
|
Revenues
|
|
|
|
Europe
(€ million)
|
340.1
|
349.9
|
(3)
|
Overseas
$ million)
|
559.3
|
666.5
|
(16)
|
|
|
|
|
Sales volumes million mt |
1.73
|
1.79
|
(3)
|
Europe
|
0.62
|
0.76
|
(18)
|
Overseas
|
1.11
|
1.03
|
+8
|
|
|
|
|
Average price (€/mt)
|
498.9
|
527.0
|
|
Europe
(€/mt)
|
548.3
|
462.1
|
|
Overseas
($/mt
|
505.6
|
644.3
|
|
K+S
reported its Industry+ customer segment saw a 23% year-over-year increase in
revenues in the first quarter of the year, to €330.6 million, up from €268.2
million, boosted by higher average prices for potash-containing products as
well as the company’s salt products.
The
company said while higher prices for industrial products and de-icing salts in
particular caused the increase in revenues, higher volumes for pharmaceutical,
chemical, and consumer products also had a positive impact.
Overall
sales volumes for the segment dipped 2% to 1.79 million mt year-over-year, down
from 1.83 million mt, while de-icing salt sales volumes fell 3% to 0.59 million
mt from the year-ago 0.61 million mt.
Looking
to the remainder of 2023, K+S said it now expects an average price in the
Agriculture customer segment for the year as a whole that should be “tangibly
lower” than the figure for the first quarter of 2023 (Q1 2023: €499/mt
previous forecast, which is more than 20% below the full-year 2022 figure of €628/mt).
It said
this assumes a moderate recovery in overseas potassium chloride prices for the
second half of 2023 compared with current levels. For fertilizer specialties,
the company also expects a declining price level on average for the year.
The
company expects sales volume of all products in the Agriculture customer
segment to range between 7.2 and 7.4 million mt in FY2023, particularly due to
the easing of logistical bottlenecks, it said. It assumes an improvement in
sales volumes in the second half of 2023
This
latest guidance compares with its previous forecast of 7.3 to 7.5 million mt of
sales volumes for FY2023. Sales volumes in FY2022 were 7.11 million mt.
For the
de-icing salt business, K+S continues to expect sales volumes of about 2
million mt in the FY2023 financial year versus a previous forecast of “a good 2
million mt.” FY 2022 sales volumes were 2.1 million tons.