BHP Ltd. said it has “over-invested” in its Jansen potash mine under development in Saskatchewan, but the project remains “an attractive option” for the mining group, given its strategic fit, risk-return metrics, and the longer-term optionality the initial investment would create, CEO Andrew Mackenzie said this week. He was speaking at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Metals, Mining, and Steel Conference in Barcelona.
BHP so far has committed US$2.7 billion to sinking and completing the production and service shafts at Jansen, as well as the installation of essential surface infrastructure and utilities at the site. That work as of mid-April was 83 percent complete (GM April 19, p. 24). However, the group said it would have to invest another US$5.3-$5.7 billion to finish a stage 1 construction of the mine with potential initial capacity of 4.3-4.5 million mt/y of potash, which it said would take less than five years to complete.
Mackenzie said this week BHP can produce potash at Jansen for around US$100/mt FOB Vancouver, excluding royalties. Green Markets assesses current netbacks to Vancouver on India and China supply contracts for standard potash at between US$259-$272/mt.
But BHP remains uncertain about when its board would make a decision to move forward with Jansen beyond the current project scope. Mackenzie told investors and analysts at a company FY first-half 2019 earnings call in February that the group has “no fixed timeline” on Jansen, reiterating that the project, as with all BHP’s other capital projects, ultimately will have to pass all of BHP’s capital allocation framework tests (GM Feb 22, p. 1).
Australian private wealth management group Ord Minnett believes that BHP will make a decision in 6-18 months to go ahead with a first-stage development of Jansen, according to a Bloomberg report, citing a client note by the group. BMO Capital’s Joel Jackson also expects approval by mid-2020, with first production in 2025.
Some market watchers have questioned the relatively modest internal rate of return (IRR) of 14-15 percent that BHP currently expects to be generated by Jansen stage 1, although the anticipated IRR yield will increase to 20 percent for the full sequenced expansion of the mine to up to a further 12 million mt/y of potash.
Others question whether the market can accommodate another 4.5 million mt/y of potash in the next five or six years.
Responding to an analyst’s question on Jansen at the BMO Farm to Market Conference in New York on May 16, Mosaic President and CEO Joc O’Rourke said once EuroChem’s potash operations and K+S’ Bethune mine are fully-ramped, the only residual production available in the next five years is in the hands of the North American producers – themselves and Nutrien.
“Between these two, I believe they can account for the growth over the next five years,” he said. “After that, I can’t tell you. Maybe there will be the need for new production, but, as was being said 10 years ago, existing producers can build brownfield capacity much more cheaply than greenfield.
“It’s hard for me to say why that [BHP’s] product is needed,” he added. “[Moreover,] if I understand BHP’s price projections that they have given to start up a 4.5 million mt/y potash operation, it would probably make those price projections impossible. For me, it wouldn’t be a particularly good economic decision.”
Ahead of a decision on Jansen stage 1, BHP this week said it continues to study the stage 1 development and finish the shafts to optimize returns and de-risk “this multi-generational potash project,” work that continues to go well, it said.
Earlier, it said this includes working with potential offtake customers. The group last November inked non-binding Memoranda of Understanding with China’s Sinochem and CNAMPGC for future potash supply from Jansen (GM Nov. 16, 2018), but BHP has not since provided any update this week on further new contracts with potential customers.
Mackenzie confirmed in February that the group is still considering bringing in a partner and possibly “other expertise” that would allow further risk reduction (GM Feb. 22, p. 1). However, unlike in earlier investor and analyst conference calls, the CEO at the time made no reference to a possible outright sale of the Jansen asset.