All Posts from November 18, 2022

Ammonia

Ammonia, Black Sea, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, Northern Plains, Northwestern Europe, Southeast Asia, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

Tampa ammonia for December remains under pressure as European ammonia prices have started to slip with more ammonia plants returning to production.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Prompt ammonia pricing slipped to $1,250-$1,350/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $25-$50/st, with the low reported for November shipment at Koch terminals in Illinois and Indiana, and the high reflecting limited truck tons offered out of CF terminals. The ammonia market FOB Lima, Ohio, remained at $1,300/st FOB in mid-November.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia pricing was quoted at $1,250-$1,320/st FOB for prompt truck tons in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and supplier, with the low reported for November tons out of some Koch terminals in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

The latest ammonia offers in the Northern Plains remained at $1,200-$1,250/st FOB and $1,245-$1,300/st DEL for fall tons, but sources said most bids for fill or prepay had been pulled. “We had an alright run in North Dakota but not as good as we would have liked,” said one source regarding fall ammonia movement. “Minnesota, however, is still going.”

Black Sea:

Getting Russian ammonia back into the market continues to come up as the United Nations and Turkey work to ensure the deal brokered to get Ukrainian grain to a hungry world. The deal also includes Russian fertilizer. Every so often, the Russian negotiators remind their UN counterparts that besides the dry fertilizers, they also want to ship out ammonia.

The latest round of talks tried to push for the opening of the ammonia pipeline once again from Russia to Odessa. When this idea was first floated, Trammo had signed on to receive the Russian product at the border and then handle the export out of Odessa.

Bulk and ammonia traders dismiss the idea of including ammonia in the deal because of the volatile nature of the product and the difficulties ensuring its safety. The latest round of Russian attacks on Ukrainian power facilities increased their concern, noting that without electricity the pipeline cannot function.

Ammonia traders see little reason to push for Russia to return to the ammonia market. Buyers who once depended on Russian ammonia have moved on, sources said. The availability of ammonia from the Americas and Asia has made it possible for buyers to fill their needs without the Russian product.

With the exception of a price bubble in Europe, ammonia prices are coming off in most global markets. Buyers in Southeast Asia are seeking delays in deliveries of their contracted tons even as producers in the area look for buyers. Phosphate giant OCP in Morocco, once a major buyer of Black Sea ammonia, is back to normal production using tons from Indonesia and Trinidad.

Even Black Sea neighbor Turkey is finding ammonia from North Africa at favorable rates. The price into Turkey has dropped about $100/mt in the past couple of weeks, to a reported $980-$990/mt CFR.

Still, without any exports from the region, there can be no price exploration.

India:

Sources said India is now paying $850-$860/mt CFR for ammonia, down $30-$60/mt from recent purchases. The bulk of India’s spot material is coming from China and Indonesia. Larger buyers are also regularly receiving their contracted tons from the Arab Gulf without any delays.

January-September ammonia imports were reported at 1.6 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 13% from the 1.8 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers were Saudi Arabia with 703,000 mt, Qatar at 282,000 mt, Indonesia with 164,000 mt, and Bahrain with 159,000 mt. Most of the tonnage from the Arab Gulf was delivered under long-term contracts. The Indonesian ammonia, however, was mostly done as spot purchases.

Third-quarter 2022 imports were reported at 553,000 mt, about 23% lower than the 714,000 mt imported during July-September 2021.

September 2022 imports came in at 185,000 mt, down 22% from the 237,000 mt imported during September 2021. Saudi Arabia accounted for 45% of September tons, with 82,000 mt. Indonesia took another 19% of the market, with 35,000 mt. This was a dramatic step up for Indonesia, which only sent 15,000 mt to India in September 2021.

China accounted for 13% of September imports, with 23,000 mt. China did not send any ammonia to India in 2021.

Middle East:

Arab Gulf producers continue to draw a line at $1,000/mt FOB, despite strong demands from buyers for a price in the $900s/mt FOB. The impasse leaves prices at a previous spot level of $1,015-$1,030/mt FOB. Traders noted that there is no market for any product at that level, and eventually the producers will have to lower their prices.

Some in the industry look at other deals to argue with the producers. Sources said the Arab Gulf equivalent netback from the recent Turkish deals at $980-$990/mt FOB would be about $870-$880/mt FOB. They also noted that the Indian business has an Arab Gulf equivalent price closer to $800/mt FOB.

So far, said one trader, the producers appear to be satisfied with handling their contracts. However, he said excess material is most likely building up. Eventually, the producers will have to lower their prices to clear out their storage facilities.

Northwest Europe:

Some new deals in Europe at $1,150/mt CFR are providing a solid base for prices in the area. Even though natural gas prices are coming off, the production cost is still much higher than what buyers are willing to accept, especially when ammonia is being imported from Trinidad, North Africa, and even Indonesia at lower rates.

Demand is also an issue. Many buyers are stepping back from their ammonia needs as inflation and high interest rates impact consumer demand for their products.

The end of the year will also see the last of Russian tons being transported across Finland. Finnish rail had tried to cut off the Russian exports to protest the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The courts, however, sided with the Russian firms, citing the contract between the two. That contract expires at the end of the year, however. Sources said the lack of Russian ammonia passing through Finland might cause a momentary hiccup in the market, but is not expected to have a large impact.

Southeast Asia:

South Korean ammonia imports for January-October were reported at 1.1 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 3% from the 1.2 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers were Saudi Arabia with 503,000 mt, and Indonesia with 485,000 mt.

October 2022 ammonia imports totaled 94,000 mt, up from the 42,000 mt imported during October 2021. Saudi Arabia supplied the bulk of the material at 76,000 mt, with Indonesia sending 11,000 mt.

Urea

Africa, Bangladesh, Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Northeast, Northern Plains, South Korea, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea barges were reported at $505-$530/st FOB, down from the week-ago $520-$530/st FOB. Prices had already started to soften before word came on Nov. 16 of the much lower India tender prices. Lower NOLA numbers were heard again after the India news broke.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The urea market was pegged at $590-$610/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, down from the previous week’s high of $635/st FOB. Pricing at both Ottawa, Ill., and Cincinnati, Ohio, was reported at the $600/st FOB level at midweek.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices dropped to $575-$600/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down from the prior week’s $580-$610/st FOB range, with the high reported in Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., urea market was pegged in the $575-$585/st FOB range at midweek.

Northern Plains:

Urea prices in the Northern Plains dropped to $600-$615/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., and $670-$710/st DEL in North Dakota, down from the previous $615-$630/st FOB and $685-$730/st DEL ranges. The latest offers FOB Carrington, N.D., were pegged at the $675/st level, down from $700-$705/st FOB in late October.

Northeast:

The last urea offers were reported at $665/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., but sources at midweek said that location is currently out of urea until a resupply vessel arrives on Nov. 24. Delivered urea was pegged at the $675/st level in central Pennsylvania, down significantly from the $740/st DEL level reported in late October.

In the South Central region, new urea offers FOB Convent, La., were quoted at $620/st, down $20/st from the previous level.

Eastern Canada:

The urea market in Eastern Canada remained at C$1,060-$1,120/mt FOB in mid-November, depending on location and supplier.

India:

The NFL tender closed on Nov. 14 with 16 companies offering 2 million mt for shipment by Dec. 22. Ameropa offered the lowest price for an East Coast delivery with 90,000 mt at $578.77/mt CFR. Fertiglobe was the lowest offer to the West Coast with 45,000 mt at $573/mt CFR.

Almost exactly a year ago, IPL closed a tender that had some of the highest prices seen in an Indian tender. The West Coast price was $981.64/mt CFR and the East Coast price was $998.50/mt CFR. Prices have edged downward in the intervening 12 months, dipping to $517-$520/mt CFR in July 2022.

Aarka was disqualified with an offer of 50,000 mt. The Indian buyer did not explain why. Only one urea producer offered directly in the tender, with PIC offering 45,000 mt at $605/mt FOB.

Offers to East Coast India
Offering Company Quantity (mt) US$/mt CFR Discharge Port
Ameropa 90,000 578.77 ECI-L1
Fertiglobe 45,000 580.00 ECI
Dreymoor 45,000 589.42 Kakinada
Aries 90,000 591.97 Vizag-Kakinada-PDP
Samsung 50,000 602.50 Kakinada
Swiss Singapore 75,000 605.00 ECI
Gavilon 50,000 608.00 Krishnapatnam-Gangavaram-Karaikal
Keytrade 45,000 610.00 Kakinada
Midgulf 94,000 610.90 Gangavaram-Kakinada
Fertcom 45,000 615.00 ECI
Koch 45,000 620.00 Krishnapatnam-Gangavaram
OQ Trade 52,500 630.00 Kakinada
Offers to West Coast India
Offering Company Quantity (mt) US$/mt CFR Discharge Port
Fertiglobe 45,000 573.00 WCI-L1
OCI 45,000 574.00 WCI
OQ Trade 105,000 575.00 Mundra-Kandla
Fertcom 45,000 575.90 WCI
Ameropa 182,150 578.77 WCI
Dreymoor 93,000 584.91 Pipavav
Aries 45,000 591.97 Kandla-Pipavav-Tuna
Swiss Singapore 200,000 597.00 WCI
Indagro 100,000 603.00 Mundra-Tuna
Midgulf 94,000 604.90 Mundra
Keytrade 45,000 605.00 Kandla
Samsung 135,000 610.20 Mundra
Koch 45,000 620.00 Mundra-Kandla

As expected, the West Coast offers dominated the tender with 1.18 million mt. Sources said, however, they were surprised at the number of tons offered for the East Coast. Twelve companies offered a total of 726,500 mt for East Coast ports. The large amount offered to the East Coast, said traders, could indicate more Chinese material might be available than had been previously estimated.

Counterbids were sent to the trading houses on Nov. 17 with the Ameropa and Fertiglobe prices as the basis for East and West Coast deliveries. Sources reported by the close of business on Friday, Nov. 18, NFL had received commitments from sellers for 1.4 million mt.

Initially NFL said it would take 600,000-800,000 mt because of budget constraints. However, once the prices were released, the Department of Fertilizer reportedly reviewed the situation and authorized NFL to take as many tons as possible. Estimates are now that the buying house is looking for 1-1.2 million mt. It is still unclear if NFL will take the full 1.4 million mt offered by sellers. If NFL is able to secure the tonnage newly offered, sources said no more tenders will be needed for the rest of the year.

The bulk of the material is expected to come from the Arab Gulf, with at least one cargo out of the Baltics. Going into the tender, sources said the view was that China would supply four cargoes. Rumors are now circulating that as many as six cargoes might be available.

The earlier estimate was based on reports that the tonnage for those lots had already passed the rigorous tests that allow for exports. The additional tons are suspected of not yet being cleared, but with every possibility of having the paperwork finished in time to meet the shipping deadline of Dec. 22.

January-September imports of urea were reported at 6.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 13% from the 6 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. Oman, Qatar, and Russia sent a total of 3.2 million mt, compared with 1.1 million mt in 2021. China has been a major supplier so far this year with 855,000 mt, but its sales into India are down from the 2.2 million mt sent last year.

Third-quarter 2022 imports were reported at 2.2 million mt, down 37% from the 3.5 million mt imported during the same period last year.

September 2022 imports were reported at 567,000 mt, down from 1.3 million mt in September 2021. Some 102,000 mt was imported from Finland in September, compared with no Finnish material in 2021. Sources speculated that the tonnage was most likely Russian urea railed through Finland and exported from a Finnish port, so the port of origin was recorded rather than the production source.

Indonesia:

Producers have fallen silent as urea prices drop. The companies are fulfilling their orders for export, but do not seem to be making any moves to hold another selling tender any time soon.

Sources said one reason for the lack of activity could be that the producers have used up their export allocations. Without new permits to export, they have to wait until January for the government to issue new permits for 2023. One trader noted that even when January rolls around, the companies and government offices will spend a lot of time negotiating how many tons each producer will be allowed to export. Much will depend on estimates of domestic urea needs.

Without any new deals, the last tender price of $675/mt FOB remains the official rate, even though the market has come off dramatically since that tender.

Middle East:

The netback to the Arab Gulf from the lowest West Coast India price in the NFL tender was estimated at $550-$555/mt FOB. This is only slightly lower than what traders claimed the price should be as the global urea market softened over the last month.

The only producer in the NFL tender, PIC, tried to draw the line at a massive price drop with its $605/mt FOB offer. Even this price showed that producers saw a softer market. The netback from the last Indian tender was estimated at $624-$626/mt FOB.

Industry watchers said the Arab Gulf producers should have enough material to cover most of the West Coast offers in the Indian tender.

Egyptian producers went quiet following the release of the NFL tender prices. Sources estimated that the netback to Egypt from India would be in the low-$530s/mt FOB. This would be a significant drop from the $630/mt FOB achieved just a few weeks ago during a European buying frenzy.

As the week closed, reports surfaced of a small cargo being sold at $565/mt FOB. Shortly after that, traders and producers confirmed that Alexfert sold 6,000 mt of granular urea to a trader for December shipment at $570/mt FOB without designating the destination. Sources reported the hopes of producers to hold the line at $600/mt FOB now seems to have faded.

Demand from European buyers has slackened, said sources. This lack of interest is having an impact on North African producers looking for buyers. Reportedly, the urea warehouses are full, with little demand on hand to clear them out. Sources said farmers appear to be holding off on making any commitments for first-quarter 2023 purchases. Traders are unsure if the lack of sales is related to late demand by farmers, or due to demand destruction. One trader said he fears it is more the latter than the former.

Black Sea:

Sources estimated the netback from the West Coast Indian tender price to Poti in the eastern Black Sea at about $505/mt FOB. Reportedly, at least one inquiry has been made for a vessel to that port but not for product to go to India.

The estimated price matched the low end of where sources called the estimated Black Sea market in the past week. However, because of the distance from the entrance of the Black Sea, the Poti estimated price is lower than that of material coming from other facilities in the area.

South Korea:

Sources reported at least one small deal into South Korea that showed a netback to China of $560/mt FOB. This deal was reportedly done before the numbers in the NFL tender were revealed, and proved prescient

January-October 2022 urea imports were reported at 776,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, up slightly from the 751,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers were China with 314,000 mt, Qatar with 183,000 mt, and Indonesia with 89,000 mt. Only China showed a reduction in year-over-year sales to South Korea.

October 2022 imports were reported at 22,000 mt, down from the 48,000 mt imported in October 2021. China supplied 19,000 mt of the 2022 tonnage.

China:

Going into the NFL tender, sources expected Chinese urea to cover only four cargoes. After the tonnage and price offerings were revealed, however, sources now estimate that up to six shipments might come from China.

Sources said the initial four cargoes will reportedly be covered by urea already approved for export by Chinese authorities. There is some suspicion that the other tonnage may not yet have cleared the process to allow for the exports.

The netback to China from the NFL tender is pegged at $555-$560/mt FOB. Just as the tender closed, however, sources said sales to South Korea and the Philippines showed netbacks at $550-$560/mt FOB.

Bangladesh:

The government authorized the purchase of 60,000 mt of granular urea at the beginning of November. According to local media reports, permission was granted for an additional 90,000 mt. The first lot is with SABIC for 60,000 mt. The second lot is with Fertiglobe backed by UAE material.

There are also media reports that BCIC is facing credit issues with Saudi banks to complete existing and future urea purchases. The issue revolves around payment procedures, and BCIC and the Saudi banks are reportedly working to solve the problem.

Ethiopia:

After failing to secure 690,000 mt and nailing down a 200,000 mt government-to-government deal with China, EABC has called a tender to purchase 500,000 mt of urea. The deal is for a series of 10 shipments in 50,000 mt lots to be shipped between December 2022 and June 2023.

The tender calls for two lots for December 2022, three lots during the first quarter of 2023, and the remaining five for the second quarter.

Brazil:

A stagnant market and a midweek holiday led to limited business in Brazil. Sources said the few deals that took place moved the market to $560-$600/mt FOB, with little hope of a price revival. Rondonopolis also saw a drop in pricing, to $705-$760/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

Sources said the large stockpiles of urea, coupled with little demand from farmers, are affecting prices at the ports and at interior distribution centers. There is also uncertainty in the market while buyers and sellers wait to see what actions the new national government will take on agricultural issues.

UAN

Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

With inland prices under pressure, NOLA UAN barges were called $550/st ($17.19/unit) FOB, if that, compared to the long-standing $550-$555/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 pricing remained at $585-$610/st ($18.28-$19.06/unit) FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed at Ottawa, Cincinnati, and Mount Vernon, Ind. Rail-DEL UAN-32 pricing was quoted at $620-$630/st ($19.38-$19.69/unit) in the region, down $5/st from last report.

The last UAN-28 offers were pegged in a broad range at $508-$530/st ($18.14-$18.93/unit) FOB in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was pegged at $580-$610/st ($18.13-$19.06/unit) FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at Port Neal, Iowa, and the high at Muscatine, Iowa.

Falling urea values and a lack of liquidity pushed UAN-32 prices lower in the Southern Plains, with new offers quoted at $530-$540/st ($16.56-$16.88/unit) FOB Verdigris and Woodward, Okla., down from the prior $555-$560/st ($17.34-$17.50/unit) FOB level.

Northern Plains:

The UAN-32 market remained at $610/st ($19.06/unit) FOB Winona, Minn., with no current offers reported at Pine Bend, Minn. UAN-28 pricing in North Dakota was pegged at $530/st ($18.93/unit) FOB in mid-November, down from the previous $550-$555/st ($19.64-$19.82/unit) FOB range.

Northeast:

UAN-32 pricing in the Northeast remained at $590-$600/st ($18.44-$18.75/unit) FOB Baltimore, Md., with UAN-30 offers pegged at the $554/st ($18.47/unit) FOB level at that location. The market out of terminals in upstate New York was unchanged at $640/st ($20.00/unit) FOB.

Eastern Canada:

The UAN-28 market was steady at C$875-$935/mt ($31.25-$33.39/unit) FOB in Eastern Canada, with UAN-32 offers confirmed at the C$1,000/mt (C$31.25/unit) FOB level on a spot basis in Ontario.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, South Korea, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA ammonium sulfate barge prices were reported to have dropped again, to $365-$370/st FOB from the week-ago $390-$395/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market dropped to $425-$455/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $15-$25/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was pegged at $425-$450/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

Ammonium sulfate pricing in the Northern Plains slipped to $400-$420/st DEL for new offers, down from the last confirmed $460-$470/st DEL level.

Northeast:

Delivered ammonium sulfate prices in the Northeast remained at $510-$545/st following the mid-October increase in postings at Hopewell, Va., to $490/st FOB for granular, $450/st FOB for mid-grade, and $430/st FOB for standard.

Eastern Canada:

Ammonium sulfate fill pricing was unchanged at C$818-$825/mt FOB in Eastern Canada.

China:

Prices remain soft. A recent tender by Gresik in Indonesia showed a netback to China at $200/mt FOB and below, leaving a sense the market is now at $195-$200/mt FOB.

South Korea:

January-October exports of ammonium sulfate from South Korea were reported at 206,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 56% from the 466,000 mt exported during the same period in 2021. The main buyers were Mexico with 83,000 mt, and the US with 59,000 mt.

October 2022 exports were reported at 15,200 mt, up slightly from the 13,000 mt exported during October 2021. Italy took 15,000 mt of the material offered.

Brazil:

Ammonium sulfate prices moved up slightly, to $720-$780/mt CFR. Rondonopolis prices also edged up to $410-$450/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources did not discuss why prices shifted upward. They did note, however, that the drop in urea prices now makes ammonium sulfate less attractive as a urea substitute in blending.

DAP/MAP

Bangladesh, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida phosphate producers were reportedly sold out of DAP and MAP through the first half of December. Posted DAP truck pricing continued at $770/st FOB, while MAP trucks were posted at $790/st FOB, steady from the prior report.

Truck-loaded MAP offered from North Florida continued at $820/st FOB, unchanged from last week.

US Gulf:

NOLA phosphate pricing fell for the week, sources said, as the combined forces of the impending winter navigation season and ongoing trouble on the inland river system limited trading at NOLA.

Nearby NOLA DAP pricing sank to a $640/st FOB low, down $35/st from last week’s $675/st FOB floor, while sources described pricing as high as $665/st FOB, off from the prior $680/st FOB top.

Limited MAP trades and offers were reported down to $630/st FOB for nearby loading, while some saw the market topping out around $650/st FOB. Week-ago MAP levels were reported at $650-$665/st FOB,.

Domestic producers continued to report being sold out of NOLA DAP and MAP barges for loading through the first half of December. Tons located at upriver locations were drawing a considerable premium to NOLA, with some noting trades at or above a $700/st FOB NOLA-equivalent.

Sources quoted the nearby DAP barge market at $640-$665/st FOB, down from $675-$680/st FOB one week earlier. MAP barge pricing was reported at $630-$650/st FOB, also down from last week’s $650-$665/st FOB range.

US Exports:

Sources noted a quiet week on the US Gulf phosphate export markets. Recent reported business included a 25,000 mt DAP cargo selling into Latin America at $692/mt FOB.

Mosaic reported shifting a portion of the loading for a previously reported export vessel from Central Florida to NOLA. The cargo is slated to load in December.

With nothing new reported, the Gulf export DAP and MAP markets continued at $692/mt FOB, unmoved from the prior report.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP was quoted at $795-$810/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $5-$10/st from last week, with Cincinnati pricing reported at $800-$810/st FOB. MAP pricing fell to $800-$830/st FOB in the region, with both the high and low reported at Cincinnati. The Ottawa market was pegged at $800/st FOB for both DAP and MAP at midweek.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP was quoted at $795-$810/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP dropping significantly to $780-$810/st FOB, depending on location. St. Louis pricing at midweek was reported at $795-$800/st FOB for DAP and $780-$785/st FOB for MAP.

Northern Plains:

DAP pricing remained at $800-$810/st FOB St. Paul, with MAP reported at the $820-$830/st FOB level at that location. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota dropped to $792/st for 1Q shipment, down from the last $860/st DEL prompt price.

Northeast:

DAP pricing was unchanged at $830/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, in mid-November. MAP in the Northeast was pegged at $850/st FOB East Liverpool and $880/st FOB Fairless Hills, with delivered MAP reported at the $905/st level in central Pennsylvania.

Eastern Canada:

MAP pricing in Eastern Canada covered a broad range at C$1,180-$1,280/mt FOB in mid-November, while the latest DAP offers at Montreal were quoted at the C$1,170/mt FOB level, down C$10/mt from last report.

Saudi Arabia/Bangladesh:

The Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (Ma’aden) has renewed its phosphate fertilizers supply deal with Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corp. (BADC). The agreement makes Ma’aden Bangladesh’s largest phosphate supplier, according to the Zawya news portal.

In accordance with the agreement, Bangladesh would continue to receive around 40% of the country’s estimated DAP needs through 2023 from Ma’aden.

China:

Small lots of DAP continue to be sold to buyers in Southeast Asia. Sources said the netback on these deals is around $720/mt FOB, leaving the price on a steady path.

The buyers are beginning to look elsewhere for their 2023 requirements. Sources said nothing seems to be changing in reports that China will ban all DAP/MAP exports during the first quarter of 2023.

India:

Indian buyers are winding down their activities as the year ends. Buying has focused on picking up DAP from sources other than China. The result is a landed price at $740/mt CFR, which is too low for the Chinese producers.

Buyers were aggressive in the last half of the year securing DAP. Government changes in the subsidy program helped make it possible for the buyers to purchase the tonnage needed.

January-September DAP imports were reported at 4.3 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 48% from the 2.9 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers were Saudi Arabia with 1.3 million mt, Morocco with 1.1 million mt, and China with 890,000 mt. Imports from Saudi Arabia and Morocco were up, while imports from China were down. During the January-September 2021 period, China sent 1.2 million mt to India.

Third-quarter imports of DAP were reported at 2.1 million mt, up 61% from the 1.3 million mt imports during July-September 2021.

September imports were reported at 968,000 mt, up from the 242,000 mt imported in September 2021. Moroccan DAP accounted for 30% of DAP imports, at 289,000 mt. Saudi Arabia came in second with 267,000 mt, for 28% of the import market.

Brazil:

The MAP price in Brazil remained steady at $590-$620/mt CFR. During this lull in price movement, sources said pressure seems to be building for some buyers to take positions for the first quarter of 2023. So far, however, no one has stepped forward.

Rondonopolis showed softness in pricing, dropping to $710-$770/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The softer prices come as buyers remain on the sidelines. Sources said some of the hesitancy is related to uncertainties about the agricultural policies the new government will implement in January 2023. Another factor is a devaluation of the Brazilian currency.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

November phos acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid pricing was steady at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt for November tons.

Northern Plains:

Phos acid pricing for November shipments remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Northern Plains, unchanged from October.

India:

India phosphoric acid contracts were reported in the $1,100-$1,200/mt P2O5 CFR range for the fourth quarter, down $515-$615/mt from $1,715/mt CFR in the second and third quarters.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

10-34-0 pricing was unchanged at $665-$675/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with pricing out of Michigan warehouses pegged at the $680/st FOB level in mid-November.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was quoted at the $655-$675/st FOB level in the Western Cornbelt for the last confirmed offers.

Northern Plains:

10-34-0 offers were quoted at $665-$680/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with delivered pricing pegged in a broad range at $700-$750/st in central and western North Dakota.

Northeast:

10-34-0 prices in New York were quoted at $700/st FOB, down $20/st from last report.

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Potash Muriate, South Korea, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA potash barge prices moved down to $520-$525/st FOB from the week-ago $530-$535/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash pricing remained under pressure in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the market falling to $610-$630/st FOB from the prior week’s $630-$650/st FOB. New offers FOB Cincinnati were quoted at the $610/st level at midweek, down from last week’s $635/st FOB, with prices at Ottawa confirmed at the $620/st FOB level.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash prices fell to $595-$610/st FOB in the region in mid-November, down once again from the previous week’s $610-$640/st FOB in the region. The St. Louis market was pegged in the $595-$600/st FOB range, while offers at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., reportedly dropped to $590/st FOB during the week.

Northern Plains:

Sources quoted potash pricing at $610-$620/st FOB St. Paul, down from the previous $635-$640/st FOB level. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines, based on current exchange rates, were reported at $643-$677/st after netbacks, depending on grade and destination.

Northeast:

Potash pricing remained under pressure in the Northeast. Spot offers at midweek were confirmed at $650/st FOB East Liverpool, $655/st FOB Fairless Hills, and $665/st FOB Lancaster, Pa., down from the $685-$700/st FOB regional range in late October.

Eastern Canada:

The potash market in Eastern Canada was pegged in a wide range at C$1,040-$1,110/mt FOB warehouses, down C$16/mt at the low end of the range.

Brazil:

MOP prices in Brazil edged down to $525-$580/mt CFR. Sources said the lower end of the range was mostly related to Russian tons. Rondonopolis tightened to $680-$735/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

Sources said there is some growing interest in taking a long position as buyers focus on the next application season.

India:

January-September 2022 imports of MOP were reported at 2.1 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 20% from the 2.6 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. Of the four top suppliers, Canada and Israel showed an improvement, while Belarus and Jordan slid.

Canada and Israel provided a total of 1.22 million mt during January-September 2022, up from 866,000 mt during the same period in 2021. Belarus and Jordan sent 741,000 mt, against the 1.1 million mt the two jointly sent in 2021.

Third-quarter 2022 imports were reported at 221,000 mt, down 34% from the 335,000 mt imported during July-September 2021. September 2022 imports were reported at 221,000 mt, down 34% from the 335,000 mt imported during September 2021.

South Korea:

January-October MOP imports were reported at 588,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 11% from the 660,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers were Canada with 432,000 mt, and Israel with 95,000 mt.

October 2022 imports were reported at 21,000 mt, down from the 88,000 mt imported during October 2021. Canada supplied just about all the tonnage with 20,000 mt.

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