U.S. Gulf: Most continued to call nitrate barges in the $310-$330/st FOB range, citing September business at $300/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate remained at $380-$400/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.
Southern Plains: The Tulsa ammonium nitrate market was steady at $370-$380/st FOB for the last sales.
South Central: Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $355-$380/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low FOB Yazoo City, Miss., and the upper end FOB Memphis.
Southeast: The Tampa ammonium nitrate market remained at $395/st FOB.
Oklahoma City — LSB Industries is in the midst of a turnaround at its Cherokee nitrogen plant. The planned turnaround started the third week of July and will take up to 35 days to complete. The company added that its Pryor, Okla., facility has continued to operate at its targeted rate of approximately 650 tons per day of ammonia, but downtime is planned at Pryor this fall.
Calgary — Agrium Inc. expects its idled Vanscoy, Sask., potash mine to be back up at the end of November after repairs and tie-in for its major upgrade. The company opted to bring forward a planned turnaround after the mine experienced a mechanical failure on its main hoist system that shut down production. Agrium is in the process of adding about 1 million mt/y of capacity and expects to produce 2.1 million mt/y in 2015. As reported last week, Agrium expects gross profit from potash to be a negative $40 million, and it expects to have to purchase a significant amount of potash in the second half (GM Aug. 11, p. 15). In other news, Agrium’s Redwater, Alba., nitrogen plant is going down for 45 days in September to replace a heat boiler. Agrium said the problem was identified two years ago and was the cause of two turnarounds in 2013. Agrium reports that its Carseland, Alba., nitrogen plant came back up and is running on schedule. It said both Carseland and Fort Saskatchewan, Alba., have now been transitioned to four-year planned turnarounds from a two-year timeframe, which is expected to result in higher average output from these in the future.
U.S. Gulf/River: Shipping operators reported numerous channel operations underway between Mile 220 and Mile 765 on the upper Mississippi River, with at least one location, Mile 749, closed entirely due to shoaling.
Dredges arrived in the area on Aug. 13, and workers hoped to reopen the channel late on Aug. 14. Operations on the river were expected to slow barge traffic and reduce overall transit volume for the foreseeable future, likely prolonging or even intensifying the freight rate increases of recent weeks.
Transit delays of 8-12 hours were reported at Dashields Lock on the upper Ohio River, where the main chamber will be closed through Sep. 19. The Montgomery Lock main chamber will be closed for maintenance Aug. 18 through Sep. 19, and wait times of about an hour were reported at R.C. Byrd Lock, where the main chamber is scheduled for downtime Sep. 8 through Nov. 7.
On the lower Ohio River, Lock 52 saw average queue lengths of 17 boats for the week, resulting in 18-20 hour delays. The lock’s main chamber is slated for closure Aug. 18-29, while the auxiliary chamber will be offline Sep. 2-26.
The J.T. Meyers Lock, also on the lower Ohio, will see main chamber maintenance Sep. 2-19, and vessels heading southbound though the Olmstead Locks and Dam Project continued to be limited to tows of 15 barges or fewer.
On the Illinois River, waits of 2-4 hours were reported at Marseilles Lock. On the Arkansas River, the W.D. Mayo Lock will be closed Aug. 25 through Sep. 14 for miter gate maintenance.
Gulf-area locks reporting delays were Algiers Lock (one hour), Port Allen Lock (1-2 hours), Bayou Sorrel Lock (1-2 hours), and Industrial Lock (18-24 hours).
Grain Futures: As of 4 p.m. on Aug. 14, corn prices were up from the previous week, but soybean and wheat contracts were lower.
September 2014 corn was posted at $3.62/bushel, up from the previous week’s $3.595/bushel. Corn for December 2014 was also up at $3.735/bushel from the prior week’s $3.7125/bushel, while contracts for March 2015 corn were reported at $3.8675/bushel, a slight bump up from $3.8425/bushel the week before.
Soybean prices for November 2014 were $10.56/bushel, down from $10.78/bushel the week before. January 2015 soybeans were pegged at $10.6475/bushel, also below the prior week’s $10.865/bushel, while November 2015 soybeans were reported at $10.61/bushel.
September 2014 wheat punched in at $5.3725/bushel, down from $5.615/bushel the week before, while December 2014 wheat contracts fell to $5.5275/bushel from the previous week’s $5.79/bushel. Wheat for July 2015 was down as well, to $5.9525/bushel from the prior week’s $6.185/bushel. Eastern Cornbelt: Sources reported rainfall across parts of northern Ohio early in the week, but conditions were generally dry elsewhere in the Eastern Cornbelt at mid-month.
USDA continued to report exceptional crop conditions in the region, with fully 72-82 percent of the corn and 67-78 percent of the soybeans rated as good or excellent as of Aug. 10. Crops conditions nationally were equally as impressive, with 73 percent of the corn and 70 percent of the soybeans falling in the good or excellent categories last week.
Western Cornbelt: The small areas of abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions that persisted in southern Nebraska continued to shrink in early August, thanks to additional rainfall. A cluster of powerful thunderstorms moved through south-central Nebraska on Aug. 9-10, inundating Kearney with more than four inches of rain and causing flash floods.
Crop conditions in the Western Cornbelt remained very favorable at mid-month. USDA assigned good or excellent ratings to fully 76-83 percent of Missouri’s corn and soybean acreage last week, compared with 75-76 percent in Iowa and 70-71 percent in Nebraska. Missouri’s rice crop was 67 percent good or excellent, an increase from the prior week, while 60 percent of the state’s cotton acreage remained in the good or excellent categories last week.
Southern Plains: Severe to extreme drought persisted across western Kansas, western Oklahoma, northern Texas, and southeastern Colorado in mid-August, but areas of exceptional drought – the worst drought category – were limited to just a few small patches in Texas.
New Mexico in particular has benefited from recent rains, including heavy downpours at midweek that prompted flash flood watches for the western half of the state. In fact, in a reverse from last year at this time, New Mexico’s sorghum crop was rated as fully 70 percent good or excellent last week, compared with 71 percent in Oklahoma, 56-58 percent in Kansas and Texas, and just 30 percent in Colorado.
As for other crops, USDA assigned good or excellent ratings to 65-70 percent of the corn acres in Texas and Colorado last week, while 55-56 percent of the corn and soybeans in Kansas were placed in those two categories. Good or excellent ratings were also assigned to 58-65 percent of the cotton acreage in Kansas and Oklahoma, compared with 37 percent in Texas.
South Central: After a chilly July that registered as one of the coolest on record for Arkansas, the South Central region saw a return to seasonal conditions in early August.
Louisiana and Mississippi were enjoying very favorable crop conditions, with good or excellent ratings assigned to 79-82 percent of the soybeans, 80-86 percent of the ric
Tampa: Sources described a slow week on the sales side of the domestic sulfur market. Many in the industry were said to be busy planning for the upcoming TFI World Fertilizer Conference in September, as well as fine-tuning marketing strategies for 2015 in the face of the pronounced structural changes experienced by the industry in 2014.
The city of Richmond, Calif., approved a plan by Chevron to modernize its 257,000 barrel/day refinery there. The upgrades, projected to be completed in 2016 at an estimated cost of $1 billion, include replacing a 1960s-era hydrogen plant and reducing emissions, while capping the total volume of sulfur the facility will be allowed to process.
U.S. refinery operating capacity fell for the third consecutive week. American refineries utilized 91.6 percent of their operable capacity for the week ending Aug. 8, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (USEIA), a decrease from 92.4 percent the week before. The rate was up from the 89.4 percent posted for the same week in 2013, however, and also ahead of the five-year average of 90.5 percent.
The third-quarter price of molten sulfur at Tampa was $136/lt DEL, an increase of $3/lt over the second quarter price of $133/lt DEL.
U.S. Gulf: The price of sulfur exported from the Gulf of Mexico was $145-$150/mt FOB.
Vancouver: Spot prices to China continued to slide as that country moves into its domestic fertilizer season and “high export tax window.” Prices were said to have drifted into the $170s/mt CFR from the low $180s/mt CFR reported the week before.
Sources expected the softening Chinese market to test offer levels out of Vancouver for the next round of business, but nothing was confirmed yet. For now, the spot price of sulfur at Vancouver was reported as unchanged at $140-$170/mt FOB.
Reports out of Alberta were that Syncrude 21 had returned to shipping sulfur after suspending loading in early July. The facility was reportedly operating at approximately 80 percent of capacity for the week.
Syncrude’s return to production came as another major Oil Sands upgrader was set to enter a late-August turnaround. As a result, traders hopeful for a sudden boost of incremental supply from Syncrude will likely be disappointed, sources said.
The price of sulfur sold from Alberta was quoted in a range of (-)$20-$80/mt.
West Coast: Sulfur sold from the West Coast was unchanged at $140-$145/mt FOB.
Benelux: Benelux sulfur was $158-$172/mt for the third quarter.
ADNOC: Sulfur sold by ADNOC was $175/mt for the month of August.
U.S. Gulf: Potash barge prices firmed last week, with sources reporting recent trades within the $367-$375/st FOB range.
Eastern Cornbelt: The potash market had reportedly firmed to $400-$417/st FOB regional warehouses, depending on grade, location, and supplier, and remained in tight supply.
Western Cornbelt: The potash market in the Western Cornbelt had firmed to $400-$410/st FOB for red and $407-$417/st FOB for white granular tons. While producer postings remained at $390/st FOB for red and $397/st FOB for white, sources said producers had no tons to sell at those levels.
Sources remain optimistic about the fall fertilizer season, although some were tempering expectations. “Corn prices are going down and fertilizer is going up, so that might limit fall rates a bit,” said one Missouri contact. “Logistics are also a real mess, and barge and rail freight has really gone up.”
Added another source: “I think logistics problems will be a major concern until next summer.”
Southern Plains: Potash pricing out of regional warehouses in the Southern Plains was quoted at a firm $390-$395/st FOB. Reference prices FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $385/st for 60 percent standard, $390/st for 60 percent granular and 62 percent standard, and $397/st for 62 percent granular and 62 percent Super Sol.
Sulfate of potash magnesia remained at $365-$380/st FOB Carlsbad, depending on grade.
South Central: Potash pricing had reportedly firmed to $395-$410/st FOB warehouses in the South Central region, up $5-$20/st from last report, with the low at Memphis and the upper end quoted in the Arkansas market.
Southeast: The potash market was quoted at $397-$400/st rail-DEL in the Southeast, with the warehouse market pegged at the $395/st FOB level for red granular tons.
Central Florida: Central Florida traders continued to lament the lack of available MAP on the market, speculating that the product was instead being earmarked for much more lucrative offshore sales, where offers were said to remain well above the $500/mt FOB mark.
Logistics concerns weighed on the market as well, as inland grain repositioning from the current mammoth corn crop was reportedly tying up rail lines. The price of phosphates shipped by truck, already enjoying a roughly $5/st FOB premium to rail-loaded product, was expected to further increase in the months ahead.
Nearby DAP demand was light, however, so the issues weren’t as cumbersome as they will likely be come September, when late-summer buying is expected to hit its stride.
DAP prices on the Central Florida phosphate market were quoted in a range of $435-$440/st FOB, unchanged from the previous week, with truck-loaded product accounting for the upper end of the range. MAP was $20/st FOB over DAP, despite scant availability.
U.S. Gulf: Sources reported a particularly quiet week on the NOLA phosphate market.
Sources blamed the lack of trader demand on low interest from dealers and wholesalers. Retailers were said to have taken positions awaiting renewed interest from their farmer customers, while farmers were reportedly hesitant to make large fertilizer purchases while grain prices remain depressed.
“It is likely that barge activity will be quiet until we see farmer demand start to clean out all the length out there,” one source said. “Dealers and wholesalers won’t just continue to increase their length hoping and betting the farmer will come.”
Persistent logistics issues have also contributed to sputtering sales, and sources mentioned a “significant concern” regarding traders’ ability to procure timely barges. Continued river issues, coupled with a high volume of grain shipments currently on the river, have made barges “almost impossible to get,” a source said.
A well-documented run-up in the price of barge freight in recent weeks has also been a factor. Rates were said to be three times higher than normal in some instances, with storage and demurrage days and their associated costs rising in concert. Sources said rates could escalate even more in the near term.
Respective offer levels for September and October domestic product were put at $455/st and $465/st FOB, though sources said paper deals were available in the low $440s/st FOB, making those offers less than attractive.
Imported phosphates for September discharge were quoted in a range of $430-$440/st FOB. Traders with plans to import Chinese vessels worried that time was running short, sources reported, as loading delays caused by Typhoon Rammasun and persistent rains have delayed many vessels to the point of potentially arriving after the river’s close in mid-October.
U.S.-bound vessels were said to be pulling up anchor and getting underway as soon as possible despite being just partially loaded. With an average transit time of 38 days, plus long vessel lines at NOLA and an uncertain number of days needed for discharge and marketing, many traders felt that waiting indefinitely for ideal loading weather was a luxury they could not afford.
DAP sold on the river firmed to $445-$450/st FOB from the previous range of $442-$450/st. Mosaic’s posted price for September DAP was $455/st FOB.
MAP was reportedly commanding an additional $25-$35/st FOB over DAP, thanks to strong offshore demand.
Eastern Cornbelt: Sources pegged the DAP market at $485-$500/st FOB regional warehouses in the Eastern Cornbelt, with MAP reported in the $510-$530/st FOB range, depending on location.
Eastern Cornbelt: The granular ammonium sulfate market was pegged at $270-$280/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt. Honeywell’s postings moved on Aug. 11 to $280/st FOB Danville and Granite City, Ill., with mid-grade at $250/st FOB Danville and Byron, Ill.
Honeywell’s rail-DEL postings for ammonium sulfate moved on that date to $290/st for granular and $260/st for mid-grade in Illinois. DSM’s delivered posting for granular ammonium sulfate in the Midwest moved on Aug. 15 to $290/st less 5 percent, or $275.50/st DEL.
Ammonium thiosulfate pricing was steady at $345-$350/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt: The granular ammonium sulfate market was steady at $270-$280/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt for prompt pull, with the low quoted in southern Missouri and the upper end in Iowa.
Honeywell’s granular ammonium sulfate postings moved on Aug. 11 to $280/st FOB Dubuque and Sioux City, Iowa, with rail-DEL tons in Iowa moving to $290/st for granular and $260/st for mid-grade.
Ammonium thiosulfate remained at $320-$345/st FOB in the region, with the low in Iowa and the upper end quoted in the Missouri market on a spot basis.
Southern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $260-$295/st FOB Texas shipping points, with the low FOB Freeport and the upper end FOB Littlefield and Plainview. Coarse grade was $10/st lower and standard $20/st lower than granular.
South Central: Granular ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $275-$280/st FOB in the South Central region.
Ammonium thiosulfate remained at $310-$315/st FOB regional terminals.
Southeast: Sources reported lower summer fill prices for ammonium sulfate in the Southeast. The granular market was quoted at $245/st FOB Hopewell, Va., and Augusta, Ga., with delivered product reported at $250-$260/st in the region, depending on location. Standard grade ammonium sulfate was referenced at $200/st rail-DEL in Florida for summer fill.
Disclaimer of Warranty
All information has been obtained by Green Markets from sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by our sources, Green Markets or others, Green Markets does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.
